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moosedrool
climber
lost, far away from Poland
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Topic Author's Original Post - Apr 20, 2014 - 09:31pm PT
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For President?
Maybe not, but he has a vision, for sure!
From Wikipedia:
After reading philosophers Hegel, Schopenhauer and Nietzsche during his mid-teens, Musk briefly became depressed with the lack of answers to the large questions of life, such as the reason for existence. After coming to this conclusion, Musk decided that perhaps the reason for the lack of good answers was that mankind was not yet at the point to be able to ask the right question. Musk's philosophy is that if global consciousness can be expanded, perhaps in the future mankind will be able to ask the right question. Musk considers the internet, renewable energy and space exploration as the methods which have the potential to have the most impact in this sense. The internet can serve as a global nervous system, renewable energy can expand the timeframe within which mankind can try to ask the right questions before running into economical or ecological collapse, and space exploration can serve as a backup for life itself. Musk also considers becoming a spacefaring civilization as an important step in evolution itself, akin to life first crawling onto land.
Andrzej
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Ricky D
Trad climber
Sierra Westside
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Apr 20, 2014 - 09:44pm PT
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Don't his cars catch on fire?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 20, 2014 - 09:45pm PT
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Well, Elon's wanting to colonize Mars is far preferable to all the other politicians who have wanted to colonize my azz.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Apr 20, 2014 - 10:55pm PT
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Don't his cars catch on fire?
Not as often as many others.
I had a car burn up at -40F Dodge it was. When the fire department got done it was embedded in over a foot of ice.. pretty cool.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Apr 21, 2014 - 02:45am PT
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The first two goals are laudable, the third unrealistic for a variety of reasons.
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Ward Trotter
Trad climber
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Apr 21, 2014 - 03:15am PT
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His views, as represented above, appear to me as kind of charmingly quaint and somewhat dated and old- fashioned.
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dhayan
climber
los angeles, ca
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Apr 21, 2014 - 10:13am PT
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People like this are extremely dangerous
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philo
Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
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Apr 21, 2014 - 10:24am PT
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^^^ Please elucidate. Who is dangerous?
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Apr 21, 2014 - 11:11am PT
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Spacefaring will have to solve the speed issue if we ever to get out of this solar system. The next star, Alpha Centuria, is four light years away......since light travels at 186,000 miles a second, that's quite a haul.
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chill
climber
between the flat part and the blue wobbly thing
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Apr 21, 2014 - 11:24am PT
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People like this are extremely dangerous
Expression of idiocy made possible by "dangerous people".
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SC seagoat
Trad climber
Santa Cruz CA
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Apr 21, 2014 - 11:40am PT
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Not born in America. But neither was Ted Cruz. Perhaps it won't matter anymore.
Susan
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fluffy
Trad climber
Colorado
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Apr 21, 2014 - 11:56am PT
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Why would he even want to be president? Seems like he's doing fine without wading into that quicksand.
He just needs to be friends with a president.
(chill...+1)
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philo
Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
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Apr 21, 2014 - 11:59am PT
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Elon Musk is the kind of visionary businessman we need more of in the world these days.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 21, 2014 - 01:36pm PT
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But, Philo, he's a capitalist!
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philo
Trad climber
Is that light the end of the tunnel or a train?
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Apr 21, 2014 - 01:38pm PT
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But not a Vulture.
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Eric Beck
Sport climber
Bishop, California
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Apr 21, 2014 - 01:52pm PT
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Musk has said that he thinks that the future of electric cars will not be with batteries, but rather supercapacitors. Capacitors do have some important advantages; they charge up quickly and don't wear out.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Apr 21, 2014 - 02:51pm PT
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That is interesting take on things:
Google co-founder and CEO Larry Page says he'd rather leave his savings to inventor Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and founder of Tesla, when he dies than to a charity. http://mashable.com/2014/03/20/larry-page-ted-2014/
(There's nothing special about the link--just the first one I saw that describes the story, which I already knew about.)
Maybe there's a dark side we don't know about, but Musk seems like a great American (or Canadian or S. African or whatever).
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Climberdude
Trad climber
Fresno, CA
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Apr 21, 2014 - 03:17pm PT
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For those of you who are worried about the Tesla car catching fire, you should be more worried about the internal gasoline or diesel engine car (or motorcycle) you drive everyday catching fire. If we had the regulatory safety standards in place today but had to come up with a motive power source for a car, a vehicle using flammable fuels such as gasoline or diesel would never be allowed. The internal combustion engine gained acceptance in motor vehicles before there were safety regulations regarding flammable fuels in moving vehicles.
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TGT
Social climber
So Cal
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Apr 24, 2014 - 06:19pm PT
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I guess if you can afford the car you can afford the drugs too.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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Apr 24, 2014 - 06:31pm PT
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I'm on board... wish it could be with more. Maybe soon...
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Sanskara
climber
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Apr 24, 2014 - 07:32pm PT
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I'm not much for big business in general so for me to like a guy like this is rare. However this guy seems alright, I have listened to stuff on NPR about him and watched a 20/20 or 60 minutes special on him and I like his story. His vision well we will see. I could give a sh#t about going to space,
I agree he will far surpass Steve Jobs with regard to thinking outside the box and changing the world we live in. That is if he does not go bankrupt in the process. I think it is quite possible he does as he has the type personality to just go for it as he really believes in himself and his ideas. Weather his impact end up being a positive or negative has yet to been seen. Imop his visions and intent could lead to some very scary sh#t..
Only time will tell.
Humans just can't seem to ever be satisfied leaving well enough alone..
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Bill Mc Kirgan
Trad climber
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
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Apr 24, 2014 - 08:07pm PT
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^^^ Sanskara,
What does this mean...
They is if he goes not go bankrupt in the process? As for if how he changes the wood will prove to be a good or bad thing is yet yo be seen imop..
Please to edit for clarity. Many thanks 'cause I dig what you're thrown down a goodly bit of the time.
--Sanskara edit: Thanks for mending the autocorrect-jibberish!
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Sanskara
climber
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Apr 24, 2014 - 09:29pm PT
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I can't spell and I use an iPad with the auto correct function on. I should just turn it off.
Moose you ever read The China Study. I think you might like it. I suggest you read it as the same authors most currant publication "Whole" I am almost positive you will enjoy. It just works to read The China Study first.
Even if you don't buy everything in either of the books they both offer a perspective on health and nutrition that can not be ignored.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Apr 25, 2014 - 12:27am PT
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Donini: Spacefaring will have to solve the speed issue if we ever to get out of this solar system. The next star, Alpha Centuria, is four light years away......since light travels at 186,000 miles a second, that's quite a haul.
Yes, intra-/inter-galactic spacefaring is essentially time travel and if you can't manage that you're not really going to be going anywhere. Hell, the Voyagers have just left the Solar System which basically means they've arrived at the nearest bus stop.
The other issue is the fact that humans are composite beings whose cellular makeup is only about 10% human; the other 90% are various microbes and fungi - i.e. we are wholly a product of, and bound to, this planet's ecology - you can't take it with you and you can't recreate it once you arrive somewhere else.
Think of it this way. Go to the store and buy enough food to really load your refrigerator up. Then unplug it and come back in say, forty days, and see what you've got cooking. That's pretty much exactly how your average 'starship' is going to fare on a short forty year jaunt. Hell, just a trip to Mars and back is likely to make the inside of your climbing shoes on a hot day seem like the latest perfume out of Paris by comparison.
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chill
climber
between the flat part and the blue wobbly thing
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Apr 25, 2014 - 02:57am PT
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Imop his visions and intent could lead to some very scary sh#t..
Sanskara - What exactly is the difference between Musks vision and intent and that of the guys that invented the ipad you typed that on?
Let's see, re-usable rockets, electric cars, and solar powered homes. Yeah, that's some terrifying sh#t.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Apr 25, 2014 - 03:09am PT
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Jump starting a couple of new industries is pretty cool. But when you keep at it and create a couple more you are just hot-dogging, dude is a major over achiever.
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WBraun
climber
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Apr 25, 2014 - 02:08pm PT
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Capacitors do have some important advantages; they charge up quickly and don't wear out.
And don't wear out is not true .....
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WBraun
climber
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Apr 25, 2014 - 03:48pm PT
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moosedrool
I'm well aware of the properties of capacitors as I've been using them and working with them for a long time.
We have some LED flashlights here where they fully charge up in 15 to 20 seconds.
These are expensive units,
After 3 years the capacitors no longer hold a charge.
The capacitors in the electric vehicle here are shot too.
All the capacitors in all of DNC's electric vehicles are shot also.
Making a claim "don't wear out" is not true.
Talk to the memory guys at micron. One good friend works there and he'll tell you all about capacitors wearing out.
Memory chips change state and hold bits by capacitors.
There is nothing in the material world manufactured that "don't wear out" .....
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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what's he gonna say?!?!?! what's he gonna SAY???!!!!!!11169
after hours trading is so volatile right now!
Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.12 per share, which was higher than the $0.07 expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
However, the stock is down by around 6% in after-hours trading.
$50 Million in losses.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nature, you lost $50 million? Holy sh!t! Does this mean we gotta hold
a sushifest funraiser for you now? You can come stay in my garage if you need to.
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nature
climber
Boulder, CO
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yeah, that's gonna leave a mark.
wonder if it'll drop enough for the straddles to profit.
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chill
climber
between the flat part and the blue wobbly thing
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TGT - I need one of those to crush my beer cans before I put them in recycling. Crushing them by hand is too much work.
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Tom
Big Wall climber
San Luis Obispo CA
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Apr 30, 2016 - 04:03pm PT
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There is nothing in the material world manufactured that "don't wear out" .....
Thank God that WVB was not manufactured in the material world . . . . . . . .
Elon Musk is not stoopid enough to be President.
And, he's a wetback, and is ineligible to be President.
Just be satisfied that you have those stoopid Iron Man movies to jack off to.
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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Apr 30, 2016 - 08:51pm PT
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Has more money than I do.
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Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
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Apr 30, 2016 - 09:27pm PT
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He's now selling Elon "Musk" cologne! Clever guy. Knows how to make LOTS of money.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Apr 30, 2016 - 09:43pm PT
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What's that musky smell feeding at the public through-why it's Elon.
A first rate crook yes, but a visionary boldly going where few others have traveled. We need more of these types to advance the species rather than the garden variety criminals only in it for themselves.
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Dingus McGee
Social climber
Where Safety trumps Leaving No Trace
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Jan 22, 2017 - 04:04am PT
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What amazes me is how you lazy fukers entertain using the electric world that could exist when Musk gets his class act together? There are some useful electric toys around here NOW! Stop using yer gasser.
Yes, 20 Whrs per mile at 20 mph. Far better energy savings than the Tesla World of big $$ and saving little energy. talk talk talk
Or is that Congested California World too unsafe to ride an [E] Bike? Air Bags Now
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Jan 22, 2017 - 06:10am PT
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Good tire choice Dingus!
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Dingus McGee
Social climber
Where Safety trumps Leaving No Trace
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Jan 22, 2017 - 07:07am PT
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Musk is another F*#king Capitalist Pig in a green suit
Corporate American [Demsters or re-Pubes] will not get the job done.
Transitions begin with what you bring thru the door, park on your driveway or build -- suffocate corporate america by welding you wallet -- no more gas guzzling junk.... and other shite.
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 22, 2017 - 08:25am PT
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^^Rub it in what a worthless shithole the energy dept is going to become under Trump TGT:-)^^ I have some hope and change about the future, but suspect it will turn into "change back" soon. In this instance regarding the energy dept changes, it already has, 15 min after the election.
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rick sumner
Trad climber
reno, nevada/ wasilla alaska
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Jan 22, 2017 - 10:11am PT
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Elon is highly adaptive as well as being a visionary. Godspeed on his journey to t h e future, Mars and beyond.
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ecdh
climber
the east
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Jan 22, 2017 - 02:37pm PT
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as a businessman hes not qualified for president, he hasnt done a reality tv show yet.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 25, 2017 - 02:13pm PT
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Alan Cocconi and Dave Sivertsen, my friends who were at Cal Tech together, started AC Propulsion, Rippel was the business guy. They created much if the technology used by Toyota, Volkswagon, in addition to Tesla. I told them for years that they were giving it away, but they didn't listen to me.
Alan also almost single-handedly invented drones in the 80's and gave that technology to his friend Paul MacCready, of Gossamer Albatross fame.
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 29, 2017 - 08:09pm PT
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Looks like he broke ground! Off to the races goes Elon, Wow. http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2066335/billionaire-tesla-boss-serious-about-digging-tunnel
Partial quote: "Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk has broken ground on an underground tunnel he plans to burrow beneath the city of Los Angeles to spare himself from having to sit in traffic.
He’s also about to purchase a large earth drilling machine to continue the tunnel, which was started on his companies’ properties in Hawthorne, CA, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Elon Musk is chief executive of the space transportation company SpaceX and electric carmaker Tesla Motors, which are located on sprawling adjacent properties in Hawthorne......."
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 29, 2017 - 08:47pm PT
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Hey, Moosie, whaddya think of yer boy now that he's hooked up with The Trumpinator?
Not long ago he was bad mouthing him and now he's bromancing him! Woot!
I know, it's just business, right? Just like Vinny would say before pulling the trigger.
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 31, 2017 - 11:10am PT
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Here's the followup and it might be a game changer. Musk isn't talking about digging a tunnel. He's talking about trying to speed up the digging of them. Imagine if they could get a 500% speed increase in digging a tunnel. Holy smiokes!
Game Changer Er.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/excited-elon-musk-says-he-can-dig-holes-1000-more-quickly-currently-possible-1603813?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous&yptr=yahoo
"Improving tunneling speed while maintaining safety is Musk's ambition with this project. Speaking at the Hyperloop competition, he said: "We're just trying to figure out what it takes to improve tunneling speed. Somewhere between 500 and 1,000% is I think possible. If you apply a limit-of-physics approach we'll see how far we can get."
But the project is in the very early stages of development. Musk added: "We're just sort of muddling along, we've no idea what we are doing, we want to be clear about that... [but] I'm actually quite optimistic that tunneling can be improved by at least fivefold, maybe tenfold, and that's really key to a lot of technologies: road tunnels, Hyperloop tunnels, train tunnels."...
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kunlun_shan
Mountain climber
SF, CA
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Jan 31, 2017 - 11:25am PT
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Read this interesting story yesterday that claims Musk sees Trump, and especially Tillerson, as "an opportunity" to implement a carbon tax:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-elon-musk-is-changing-position-on-trump-2017-1
With Tillerson, Musk has clearly found a person who can pressure Trump on a carbon tax, something that Musk called for in late 2015, during a speech at the Sorbonne in Paris.
"We have to fix the unpriced externality," he said, pointing out that pollution is classic negative externality in economic terms that causes harm to all, but cost to none. He called it a "hidden carbon subsidy of $5.3 trillion per year."
Tillerson supported a revenue-neutral carbon tax when he was at ExxonMobil as the best way to de-incentivize carbon generation. Economist and policymakers often agree, but some also think a carbon market would be a more effective means to halting global warming.
So with Musk, in the first order, we have a connect-the-dots between his reversal of sorts on Trump and his enthusiasm for Tillerson.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 31, 2017 - 11:32am PT
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couch, Musk thinks he's smarter than the Swiss, the passed masters of tunneling? They
just brought in that mammoth Gotthard Tunnel on schedule and under budget. You know,
when they're not making tunneling machines they're making watches.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 10, 2017 - 09:20am PT
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What, he's gonna change the weather? Whoa!
Is it just me or does anybody else think that boy has too many irons in the fire?
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WBraun
climber
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Mar 28, 2017 - 04:47pm PT
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So ,,, I'm right again.
The stoopid gross materialists want to turn Americans into stoopid robots.
You all will soon be drooling oil .......
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WBraun
climber
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Mar 28, 2017 - 05:18pm PT
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Yep ... unbelievably stoopid people thinking the advancement of technology is so everything ....
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dhayan
climber
culver city, ca
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Mar 28, 2017 - 06:48pm PT
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You guys keep drinking the koolaid...Musk is dangerous.
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Fossil climber
Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
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Mar 28, 2017 - 07:40pm PT
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Musk has a nice vision, but I doubt we will last that long.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Mar 29, 2017 - 07:03am PT
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For a" smart guy" he says a lot of dumb things.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Apr 24, 2017 - 03:57pm PT
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
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Apr 24, 2017 - 04:06pm PT
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For a" smart guy" he says a lot of dumb things.
Yep.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 24, 2017 - 04:56pm PT
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Big article in LA Times today about Tesla's problems and how a lot of people are 'shorting' Tesla.
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
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Apr 24, 2017 - 05:45pm PT
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Is it just me or does anybody else think that boy has too many irons in the fire?
I agree, and I am not a musk fan.
You guys keep drinking the koolaid...Musk is dangerous.
I don't see him as being dangerous, but I see him being very egotistical
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Apr 24, 2017 - 06:47pm PT
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What would you do if you had some big successes that made more possibilities accessible to you than for most people, and you had big visions about what the world could be and what your role could be toward achieving that? Our time here is short, no time for dilly-dallying if your dreams are big enough.
Perhaps it does take a damn lot of arrogance to dream on a grand scale, and to boldly act on it. Whatever character flaws the man may possess- which I am not informed about for lack of interest- I admire the spirit of dreaming big and taking steps to make it real.
Few are those who can make a beautiful sandcastle and many are those who are satisfied with tearing them down.
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Apr 24, 2017 - 07:07pm PT
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As for the Neural link stuff... I do not look forward to being part of a world where that is required to be competitive, but I do see that it is coming and I think Musk has the right vision. A few months back I watched some panel of smart dudes talking about the implications of AI on our future society. Musk's response in that venue (which clearly telegraphed his plans for a company in this space) I thought was the most prescient. On the one hand my jaded self saw it as another opportunistic marketing pitch for another one of his companies, but if you spend some time to think about the real ways in which AI will change our society... he is spot on.
The technology is real, it won't be stopped, and it will give advantages to those who use it. If you believe this, perhaps the best way to manage our society short of destroying technology (but you can't put the genie back in the bottle without returning humanity to the stone-age) is to make it accessible to all. If the technology is democratized, then we have effectively the same societal battles that we do today but operating on a higher plane of efficiency. But if the technology only goes to the elite/rich folks, it causes a dramatic acceleration and end-game to the divide between rich and poor. It almost becomes a speciation event, where normal humans become just another class of animals and enhanced humans become the rulers of the Earth.
I don't fear the role of artificial enhancements in my life. I see the technology created by humans as just a super-primitive version of what nature has been improving for billions of years. I am paying more attention to molecular biology lately (because my wife's work has exposed me to it more) and it is frickin miraculous. She works to reverse engineer how the machinery of life works and see what problems it solves, and I come at it from the opposite side using computer science and systems design to take a problem and figure out a solution for it. There is a natural analytical convergence of those professions.
But I do fear what our government agencies and corporations and power-obsessed people will do with the technology. It's a bit hard to see how humanity makes it through our relative infancy. This goes way beyond giving a little kid a book of matches and lighter fluid.
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
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Apr 24, 2017 - 08:50pm PT
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What would you do if you had some big successes that made more possibilities accessible to you than for most people, and you had big visions about what the world could be and what your role could be toward achieving that? Our time here is short, no time for dilly-dallying if your dreams are big enough.
As I said, IMO he is more of a hedonist than he is an altruist.
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john hansen
climber
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Apr 24, 2017 - 09:08pm PT
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I got 100 shares of Tesla 3 years ago for $196 per share.
Up 57 percent . Pretty small investment, so I will ride it up or down unless something really bad happens and I get out at $100 or so.
I think the battery storage increase alone is worth the risk.
In a way he is the Henry Ford of the early 21st century, streamlining production of a repeatable process ( making batteries) that can be put in banks to store energy at off peak demand hours. Its just a great concept like lego's or the Model A. Simple but effective. Same with the reusable
first stage rockets. Saves 50 percent of the cost for a launch.
I will hold and this will be probably be the last stock I sell when I am 84.
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BLUEBLOCR
Social climber
joshua tree
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Apr 24, 2017 - 09:42pm PT
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^^^Nice. We saw those batteries on tv a year ago, but I still haven't seen them homedepot yet? We're waiting for them here in the JTree outback.
I agree with NutAgain mostly. Musk isn't in it to provide for the masses, he's serving the elite. Otherwise I think he'd be doing what he's doing in China.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 24, 2017 - 10:48pm PT
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All you Musk Aid drinkers can go to Mars with him although I'd put large
money on him being too chicken to go.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
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Apr 25, 2017 - 05:09am PT
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^^^^Good one. I'm a science loving guy and the whole "no worries about effing up this place cuz we will soon be colonizing Mars" bandwagon is just silly sci if cultism - hey, I love Star Wars and TNG as much as the next guy, but I'm enough of an adult to know the difference between that stuff and reality based science and economics.
We have enough sh#t to deal with here and the keep your feet on the ground making of science serve real needs for real people means being grown up enough to keep the bulk of science focused on real and sustainable solutions for problems we have here and now.
The ground we stand on and the air we breath on this stone is what we have to work with.
We have the capacity to send a few people to Mars and hang out for a little while and come back with a few buckets of samples. Would that be cool? Yeah. Is it important compared to keeping this place running well and sustaining us into the future? No.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Apr 25, 2017 - 07:35am PT
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Why not colonize the moon? That sure seems more doable than Mars for a practice attempt at building some kind of experimental base. Then we can dig up the ark on the darkside and explore the universe in it.
Musk though is much like Jobs in that he attracts a cult-like following.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
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Apr 25, 2017 - 09:08am PT
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That's awesome! Thanks, Reilly!
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Apr 25, 2017 - 10:12am PT
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I don't fear the role of artificial enhancements in my life.
Are you sure?
DMT
I should clarify ;)
I don't fear the changes in me as a consequence of modification... probably because I haven't considered it enough! But I certainly do fear the impacts on my life as a result of the changes that will come in our society and individuals around me.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Apr 28, 2017 - 09:28am PT
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^^ unlikely analysis ^^
Grohman will litigate if there are any contract violations.
More of a direction of company clash issue.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Apr 28, 2017 - 09:46am PT
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If you commit to having an open-marriage with someone who has been seeing a number of other people on a long-term basis, but then suddenly decide you want them all to yourself, you can pretty much count on things getting messy - especially when all the invested players also have deep pockets.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Apr 28, 2017 - 05:08pm PT
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Monolith,that is something.
Hope they make a van for that.
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nah000
climber
no/w/here
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Apr 28, 2017 - 06:42pm PT
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i think a mars colony would be fantastic...
no, no... hear me out:
it wouldn't be a colony so much as a "resort".
and the only people that would be allowed there would be every single primary elected leader of a recognized country on earth.
anytime a president, prime minister, presidente, chancellor, and/or etc gets elected they would also receive a mandatory month long stay on the "resort" on mars.
there would be no service staff at said "resort".
rather the "resort" would be more, shall we say, d.i.y. and self-service style.
we'd give 'em a good manual, and then they'd have to survive on mars for a month... hopefully they'd gain two things: 1. a better ability to cooperate with whatever other leaders were there at the time and 2. a new appreciation for the fact that, while we as individuals only get, if we're lucky, 120 years to do something with our lives, as a species the acts we collectively take now on earth, define the existences of generations to come on what is the most incredible and, for the time being only, accessible place for humans to exist.
and if they kill each other, you ask?
what happens on mars... stays on mars.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Apr 28, 2017 - 07:26pm PT
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Ok , I will play.
The place is too cold.
We know how to warm planets.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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May 20, 2017 - 05:22pm PT
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Moose:
Visions come cheap (but they are necessary).
What matters more is the ability to make them come true.
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WBraun
climber
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May 20, 2017 - 06:23pm PT
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Nothing in the gross material world ever becomes true except ...
Birth, death, disease and old age ......
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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May 24, 2017 - 08:46pm PT
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Of course
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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May 25, 2017 - 06:35am PT
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It’s a manner of speaking, Werner. I get paid to teach the stuff, so I do. It's the apparent role I'm in here in the drama, and it’s how we talk.
How things really happen?
Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. Pffffttttt! Can’t say, even though I see it.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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May 25, 2017 - 06:38am PT
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Mr. Musk tends to have innovative product market ideas that invariably rely upon complementary product / services being built. Like a charging station infrastructure, or accepted technical standards in the industry, or enough upscale buyers so that the auto company could eek out economies of scale.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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May 25, 2017 - 01:44pm PT
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He should skip the whole Mars boondoggle and use his resources to explore Europa.
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Spider Savage
Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
|
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Obviously a guy who can get things done.
Now the robot drone TR clip up idea... That would be good. Alert R&D at Petzl. Those stupid crash pads will become obsolite.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Moosie, time to bail!
Tesla stock plunges into bear market territory
What a difference a couple of weeks can make. After hitting an all-time high in late June, Tesla shares have collapsed 20 percent as of midday Thursday on mounting concerns about its sales results, competition and the safety of its cars.
Traders consider a 20 percent decline from an all-time high the technical definition of a bear market move.
The electric-car maker's stock fell 5,5 percent Thursday, bringing losses for the week to more than 14 percent.
"Tesla's stock was pushed to ridiculous levels on the notion that the Model 3 would be a slam-dunk success," said Fred Hickey, editor of High Tech Strategist. The company's "$100,000+ models aren't selling as well and are piling up in inventory (the relatively small pool of potential buyers at these prices may be exhausted). This bubble stock is losing air rapidly, as it should."
Multiple Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, KeyBanc Capital and Cowen expressed disappointment over Tesla's second-quarter delivery results in notes to clients the last two days.
Goldman analyst David Tamberrino cited how Tesla's second-quarter deliveries number released Monday of approximately 22,000 cars missed his forecast of 23,500 and the Wall Street consensus of 24,200.
Tesla cited a production issue with its 100 kilowatt-hour battery packs for the second-quarter deliveries shortfall.
"Tesla's Q2 production and deliveries report raised more questions than answers, particularly about Model S and X demand," Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
After the weaker-than-expected deliveries number, Volvo announced Wednesday that it will phase out combustion engine-only cars. The automaker's new cars will be all electric or hybrid by 2019.
"This announcement marks the end of the solely combustion engine-powered car," Volvo Cars Chief Executive Hakan Samuelsson said, according to a Reuters report.
The Volvo news came after a Handelsblatt Global article last week, which said BMW plans to introduce an electric version of its popular 3-Series line of sedans later this year.
In addition to the rising competition, one of the key selling points for Tesla's cars is now being called into doubt.
On Thursday, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's Dave Zuby questioned Tesla's claim that the Model S is the safest car in history after a series of new crash tests.
"If you're looking for top-line safety, we believe there are other, better choices than the Model S," Zuby told CNBC.
Tesla declined to comment on this story. Its shares are up 53 percent this year versus the S&P 500's 8.7 percent return through Wednesday.
The company's market value is about $50.7 billion, which is now below General Motor's $52.7 billion, according to FactSet.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk had bigger concerns than the company's falling stock price Thursday morning.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/tesla-stock-plunges-into-bear-market-territory/ar-BBDRy0g?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Yep,you are right.
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
|
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Occam's Razor
"It is vain to do with more what one can do with less."
~ William of Occam
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monolith
climber
state of being
|
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Damn, I missed a Tesla buy opportunity. They'll fix that seatbelt problem and have 3 models with the highest safety rating.
Despite the recent weakness, Tesla’s stock was still up 44.6% over the course of 2017, while Ford shares have lost 7.8%, GM’s stock has inched up 0.1% and the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.94% has gained 7.6%.
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
|
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Electric vehicle sales are less than one percent of all vehicle sales. What in the hell is Volvo thinking?
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Mark Force
Trad climber
Ashland, Oregon
|
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The whole electric care thing is elitist. It is for the few and doesn't provide the needs for the many - not that some electric cars won't be a good thing.
The problem with electric cars is rare earth metals needed for batteries. There's not enough to go around for everyone's car battery and China controls most of it (part of China's global game of Go that we mistake for checkers).
Nuclear energy production of hydrogen is another option for transportation and will probably end up being part of the solution.
Algae biofuel will probably end up being the non-elitist option for the masses. High oil algae can be turned into biofuel that saves 80% on the carbon emission associated with regular fuel. The waste product can be used as fertilizer and to feed chickens, pigs, sheep and cattle in support of sustainable agriculture.
Elon - poster boy for ADD - loves those bright and shiny things.
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Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
|
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As the graphene batteries become more readily available and not just for NASA, the range of the Tesla will improve; where I currently live, it's a no-go. Having a solar powered house with excess power will allow the city dweller unrestricted mobility. Crunching the numbers is appalling, though.
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Lorenzo
Trad climber
Portland Oregon
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The key will be if batteries can deliver the announced range ( Volvo said 400 KM ) for the 12 year average life cycle of a modern car, or at least its equivalent cost over that life cycle without subsidies.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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You bet! Always buy at the peak of the bubble!
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monolith
climber
state of being
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And don't forget, he's one of them foreigners.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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And don't forget, he's one of them white foreigners.
Fixed that for you...
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Moosie, it's Hyped Loopies, not Hyperloop.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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The tube itself was depressurized to the equivalent of 200,000 feet above sea level
lol... "in the event of a loss of cabin pressue...."
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Tesla seeks $1.5 billion in junk bonds to fund Model 3 production
Following the announcement, Standard & Poor's reaffirmed its negative outlook for the automaker and assigned a "B-" rating for the bond issue - deep into junk credit territory.
Tesla seeks $1.5 billion in junk bonds to fund Model 3 production
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-offering-idUSKBN1AN13I
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Oct 14, 2017 - 11:16am PT
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Tesla built a whopping 260 cars in the whole quarter but only 220 were deliverable? Seriously? Ford made over 4000 F150s per day in September!
My bad - F-Series (including Super Duty)
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Oct 14, 2017 - 02:30pm PT
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I got to hover alongside a DeLorean on the freeway this morning. I don't remember them being so low to the ground! I don't think there's even room for an electric motor in there!
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Oct 14, 2017 - 08:38pm PT
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I did feel a bit transported. The car was even a bit grimy - maybe so as not to attract too much attention!
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Ricky D
Trad climber
Sierra Westside
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Oct 14, 2017 - 09:53pm PT
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The folk-rock singer David Crosby ran over a jogger with his Tesla over here in Santa Ynez last year.
The Jogger said he couldn't hear the car coming.
David said the sun was in his eyes.
I give it another year before some California Assembly person writes a bill requiring Electric cars to have deer whistles - make that people whistles.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 17, 2017 - 08:32am PT
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Is Tesla the new Bitchcoin?
Tesla's unfettered ambition to drain finances: analysts
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-truck-research/teslas-unfettered-ambition-to-drain-finances-analysts-idUSKBN1DH1M4
“Tesla spent $1.1 billion on its auto business in the third quarter, and expects expenses of $1 billion in the current one. It had about $3.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Sept. 30.
At the current cash-burn rate, it would likely be down to about $1 billion in cash by the end of the first quarter.
In essence, all last night's event did was add to Elon Musk's shopping list of things he needs to spend money on at a time when the company is having difficulty making its base vehicle (Model 3)," Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne.“
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guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
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Nov 29, 2017 - 12:17pm PT
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Reilly ..... a question for you...your better than Google. I ask you cause you know this stuff.
How much TAX-payer $$$$ goes into each Tesla??????
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 29, 2017 - 01:23pm PT
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Good question, Guy. It breaks down into basically two parts. One are the tax breaks Musk has conned various gubmint entities into for the ‘honor’ of letting him build Teslas. Then there are the tax breaks the rich stiffs get for buying one. Can’t give you numbers off the top of my head but they are substantial in both cases.
For a good laugh I ran some numbers: Ford builds more F150s in half an hour than Tesla has built of their new Model 3 in 4 MONTHS! LOL
(I know, the F150 ain’t gonna save the world)
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Nov 29, 2017 - 01:32pm PT
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Now what is the real cost of fossil fuels ?
You should know ,stockholder.
Inform us.
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guyman
Social climber
Moorpark, CA.
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Nov 29, 2017 - 02:35pm PT
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Reilly.... thanks, I figured it was some hidden number...
Now what is the real cost of fossil fuels?
Willbeer..... for starters, you get to move around and travel freely....unlike anybody who has ever lived on our planet before lets say 1900.
You do drive do you????
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Nov 29, 2017 - 02:48pm PT
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Only with biodiesel,but ,my question has nothing to do with me.
Yours does.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Nov 29, 2017 - 03:01pm PT
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Guyman ,I like you man,but a change is a coming.
Their drivetrains w/batteries run about 5k.[Click to View YouTube Video][Click to View YouTube Video]
Edit;Now let me be clear ,I have a like new 86 Vanagon ,new to me,from Cali,no engine and ready for this Drivetrain.I am looking into it hard.It will be solar charged.
Fabrication and installation will cost more ,but, I already have another Vanagon I have installed a 1.9 tdi motor into and it is rock solid.So it will cost more than 5k,for sure.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 10, 2018 - 03:51am PT
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The current subsidies Tesla will take advantage of in 2018 are $5000 zev credits and $7500/car customer tax credits. Elon asked the government to remove these on May 3 2017. Across the board.
Because they are available to other manufactures as well. They use them with their electric cars.
In addition, he wants the subsidies removed that are advantageous to car companies but which he doesn't use.
You see, everyone says Tesla is running on government money (which he paid loans back in full, ahead of time) and yet they ignore the 4.6 BILLION of your tax dollars in oil subsidies that Trump paid out in 2017 to benefit your ice mobile.
So if the government quit giving a tax break of $7500 per electric car (which will stop in 2018 for Tesla anyway) and stopped giving 4.6 BILLION a year to Schell et al. it would be realistic. It makes me laugh when people whine about Tesla being supported by tax payers but they ignore how their government works and how much what they drive is also subsidized.
Canada is even worse at 3.3 Billion which is an even greater percentage of our GDP. Trudeau said he would let everything expire over the next 10 years and focus on renewables. We'll see.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 10, 2018 - 08:23am PT
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So weird. Who can think up a glow comment like that. You have a great imagination I guess. Good to see you can Entertain yourself like that!
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 10, 2018 - 08:49am PT
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I won't argue against the electric car subsidies. The country makes polices like that taking many factors into account. Gifting the richest folks in our society so they can drive an electric car may be a useful and productive thing. Won't talk about Musk either, deep respect for the man for many reasons. Lets talk instead about the $4.8 billion allegedly that the gov is GIVING to big oil. Maybe some research is in order for you Tooth. Allowing someone to keep (or for a lot of the oil taxes merely defer the tax) more of their money isn't a "gift".
https://info.drillinginfo.com/federal-oil-and-gas-subsidies/
http://www.heritage.org/environment/report/whats-oil-subsidy
Are you saying this statement below is incorrect?
"let’s analyze what the oil & gas sector pays in taxes. In 2012 the top two corporations paying federal taxes in the US were ExxonMobil and Chevron paying a combined total of $45.2 billion. On average, the industry pays a 45% tax rate when all state, federal, and foreign taxes are totaled up. By comparison the Healthcare Industry pays a total rate of 35% and the Pharmaceuticals pay an estimated rate of 21%. Based upon these numbers it’s hard to believe which business sector is criticized the most for “subsidies”."
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Jan 10, 2018 - 09:27am PT
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We use that for big oil since that is what is used when talking about Tesla. Tax breaks and subsidies. A tax break is the same as taxing someone and then returning the money to them minus the new tax obligation that would benefit have been created. So better than getting a return on your taxes. Especially when you are paying 45% to begin with.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 10, 2018 - 09:36am PT
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I live in a place that doesn’t do anything for cars over $70,000. I think that makes sense. The electric subsidy is meant to move the bulk of cars sold to clean energy. Giving it to rich people doesn’t make a lot of sense if they are low volume sales, however, we wouldn’t have any of the cheap cars on the market here if your country had not allowed an expensive car to be built, sold and used to prod the rest of the cars into production. I think the subsidy helped there. Now my model 3 is on its way thanks to everyone who paid for model x and s’s. I just wish the other car companies would make long distance cars too. I live in northern bc too far for a bolt to be able to make it to Vancouver especially since they have no fast charging and no charging network.
If I had the choice I would buy a Toyota or Subaru again. But they don’t seem to have anything but ice engines for sale.
Ps. Inner glow and wood effect are settings in Lightroom/PS that were probably not a reflection of the poster’s religious views of Musk.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 10, 2018 - 11:29am PT
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Well the intent in that one is obvious!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Jan 10, 2018 - 02:03pm PT
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Can he walk on fresh as well as salt water?
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Jan 10, 2018 - 02:09pm PT
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What are you two ,like eighty something?
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eeyonkee
Trad climber
Golden, CO
|
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Jan 10, 2018 - 03:20pm PT
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I pray to him every night (haven't heard anything back yet).
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 20, 2018 - 09:01am PT
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Just looked at the LA Times’ review of the Model 3. The car they tested had a sticker of,
wait for it,
$57,500!!!!!! Yeah, the peoples’ car! How is that gonna sell?
And the interior looks like a Polonez with an iPad bolted to the dash.
For 57 Large? Seriously?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 05:54am PT
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think nokia flip phone vs. iphone or any other modern phone now.
How will it sell? People will drive it, realize that with the smaller battery (220mi range minus $9000) and no luxury $5000 addition, it will cost 14% less than a civic or accord to own and operate over 5 years.
Plus, when you drive electric it is hard to go back to ice. By the time the 500,000 of us get ours, you can worry about Tesla selling any more.
Maybe they might spend their first dollar ever advertising it, compared to the millions spent on trying to advertise and sell civics or accords, Tesla doesn't seem to have any problems selling their cars as quickly as they can build them.
Do you really think that you need all the guages an ice car does? Oil temp? Coolant temp? RPMs? Check engine light? Brakes are hardly used, engine braking refills the battery. No distributer caps, exhaust systems to break down. Who the hell would want cars to be built with so little to break down? How is this thing going to sell?
Lower cost to own/operate for 5 years than civic/accord.
0-60 4.6 seconds with long range battery, going to increase with AWD option this spring.
You're a funny guy!
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perswig
climber
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 06:26am PT
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For 57 Large? Seriously?
Betting a fidget spinner comes standard, though...
Dale
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 09:01am PT
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I just paid the same for a Volvo. I grant you the Tesla will make you feel warm and fuzzy but
I can drive my Volvo anywhere, and I’m all about road trips to wherever, such as Lofoten and
Finnmark, where we’ll be going after Volvo flies us over there.
And would you really want to spend time in this:
OR THIS?
And that ‘infotainment’ system does everything the vaunted Tesla’s does, without looking
like some junior high shop class mashup.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 09:24am PT
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Paid the same initially but after 5-10 years of ownership the comparison will be lopsided and the drive wherever you want argument is one that even if it were true today, is changing so quickly with the tens of thousands of chargers being installed and the next Tesla has 600mile range with 0-60 in 1.9 seconds. So you better use that argument quickly before anyone finds out the truth.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 21, 2018 - 09:34am PT
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Really? On last summer’s road trip thru E OR, WA, ID, MT, WY, CO,UT, and AZ I didn’t see
any charging stations. Granted, I wasn’t really looking, but I do notice them around here.
And I guarantee that the total time I spent gassing up wasn’t a fraction of one Tesla recharge.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 09:55am PT
|
First photo is from one independent charging company. Next two are Tesla. You can go here...
https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/charging
to determine how long a trip would take with a given Tesla for any number of stops on a trip.
I live in northern BC now, and I can get to Squamish or Banff and then on to wherever I want via Tesla, in the winter, just as quickly as with my internal combustion engine car.
Volkswagon should have almost 3000 of their fast charging stations by next year. Chargepoint has 45,000 stations.
If you don’t like the bare dasH, you can always buy a spare oil gauge from amazon and it will be “well appointed” ha ha!. .
I'm sure that the reason you didn't see them is that you are trained to look for a gas station where you take time out of your day to go specifically to a location specifically to gas up and buy bags of chips/soda pop. Electric car mentality is to do away with that and do your charging where you park to do other useful things. Eating, shopping, sleeping, etc. If that's a stupid idea and you think time should be taken out of your day to take your cell phone into a certain store, out of your way, just to recharge it, then good for you! The rest of us charge our cell phones at night while we are sleeping, or in a plug at the airport while we are travelling. We don't take time out of our days to charge our phones. Or our cars?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 10:42am PT
|
Please give an example of a business decision where the market didn’t determine the soundness of the decision.
I can’t think of one. Unless it resulted in an environmental disaster.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Jan 21, 2018 - 10:54am PT
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Because it sounded silly. Redundant. I thought we must have missed the point of being that wordy.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 21, 2018 - 11:02am PT
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Just a better reflection of you, not the issue at hand.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Jan 27, 2018 - 07:24pm PT
|
WTF a bunch of civis do with flamethrowers?
hunting and self defense. just remember "all it takes to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a flame thrower"
Seriously cuts down on time spent cutting trails and cleaning new routes.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Sales closed on the flamethrowers, they hit 10 million dollars in orders
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monolith
climber
state of being
|
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To state the obvious, these are not real flamethrowers, the kind you see in war that put burning liquid on a target. More like the carnival kind that shoot out a flame only.
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justthemaid
climber
Jim Henson's Basement
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More like a giant butane torch on steroids.
20,000 people said " gotta have me one of those!"
I heard they are sending out a complimentary fire extinguisher with each one.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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They are already selling for almost triple the sale price
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Hula Hoops for psychopaths.
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
|
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Holy Shit!
I just watched the two Falcon Heavy boosters land simultaneously.
“It’s like science fiction.”
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SC seagoat
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, Moab, A sailboat, or some time zone
|
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OMG. Synchronized swimming isn’t as precise as those landing boosters.
F’ing UNREAL.
A Tesla in space. Yippppeeee
Susan
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
|
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Yeah, and watching that launch was cool.
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Brian in SLC
Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
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Maybe the core and "of course I still love you" had a spat?
2 out of 3 ain't bad...
Great launch!
Yeah, simul landings on the ground by the boosters...wow...
I used to support LC-40 just down the beach...pretty neat to see SpaceX gettin' 'er done.
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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I haven't been following this stuff, and was pretty blown away by the boosters landing. The amount of engineering that goes into something like this is utterly dumbfounding. So much knowledge of gases and thermodynamics and material properties at unusual temperatures and pressures, coordination/timing of control signals, aerodynamics, materials manufacturing and precision measurements and tolerances... How committing it is to just create test environments for each of the components that go into this system, and then envisioning how they will all work together and interact with each other....
It is humbling to think about my personal accomplishments and how small they are in the context of something like this.
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Did they nail the landing with the main booster?
TV News cut to advertisement right as it was coming in.
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Brian in SLC
Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
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Their live feed of the core was cut...
The video feed of the launch control folks have a voice that says, "center core landing burn has start up"...followed by "we lost the center core" about 9 seconds later.
I think it splashed into the ocean.
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stevep
Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
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The launch and 2 of the 3 boosters are an amazingly impressive achievement. Nothing this powerful has flown since the Apollo program shut down in '74.
If they can get a few more these to work, they might put the SLS out of business, and a Mars trip might actually start looking possible.
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Winemaker
Sport climber
Yakima, WA
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Sadly no; from theverge.com:
Though the Falcon Heavy’s outer cores successfully landed after launch this afternoon, the middle core of SpaceX’s huge rocket missed the drone ship where it was supposed to land, a source tells The Verge. SpaceX later confirmed The Verge’s reporting in a press conference.
The center core was only able to relight one of the three engines necessary to land, and so it hit the water at 300 miles per hour. Two engines on the drone ship were taken out when it crashed, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said in a press call after the rocket launch.
But truly amazing; it's well worth watching the videos. Seeing those two boosters landing together......
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Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
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At the post mission presser, Musk was asked about the Dragon 2 manned missions to the ISS, and he commented that this year was still possible. The only holdup is getting NASA to sign off on them as being "man rated."
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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I saw a statement somewhere that several of the engines didn't fire to slow the booster down and so it hit the drone ship at 300mph damaging the ships engines.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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I think this a space age ego trip, which is unfortunate.
And then there is the problem of having more junk orbiting around out there.
Better would have been to use the risky first launch to put a scientific payload some place that the heavy lift capability of the rocket was uniquely able to access. Especially strange since the Silicon Valley denizens claim to be technologically sophisticated, and not at all averse to taking on risks. Apparently the best they could come up with was an advertising stunt.
What a waste.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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So very cool!!
Great - more space junk, aka litter. We’ve effed up this planet so let’s trash space now.
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
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“As such, Falcon Heavy's success on its maiden mission is not a sure thing and so placing a satellite or some other operational payload on board wasn't considered a prudent move. Test flights typically carry a mass simulator, taking the place of the payload in the form dead weight, like concrete or steel blocks.”
https://www.space.com/39606-spacex-falcon-heavy-fourth-car-space.html
And this “space junk” is not in earth orbit. It is headed for a heliocentric orbit in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Oh, it’s not ‘junk’ by virtue of its orbit? That’s Trumpian Logic, sir.
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Lennox
climber
in the land of the blind
|
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It’s not dangerous junk, as it would be if it was in Earth orbit, so why should it be such a source of sour grapes?
A couple tons of concrete, which is a standard payload on an unproven launch vehicle, would have been better?
And if it were Trump's Junk he would have said it was the biggest, bestest, beautifulest, mostest importantest, payload in galactic history.
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
|
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A couple here might enjoy...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROnomVVQ2cU
I loved his commentary around the 8 minute mark regarding the car, Starman and Earth in the backdrop. So surreal.
I can't help but wonder if our descendants in 300 yrs, say, or 3,000, will do flybys of this Tesla and Starman and what they will think and if they will be wowed. Real Star Trekkie. Star Trek Voyager, in one episode, featured a 50s truck (edit: 1936) which Voyager encountered in deep space. Can't remember much more. Maybe it was the one with Amelia, the cryonic chambers, etc..
Yeah, here it is, thanks to Google AI...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_37%27s
Surprised I havent' heard any tweets, news outlets, etc.. referencing this STV episode.
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Zclipper69
Trad climber
mill valley
|
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Musk has for sure figured out the 420 to 1 mechanical advantage hauling ass system.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
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“As such, Falcon Heavy's success on its maiden mission is not a sure thing and so placing a satellite or some other operational payload on board wasn't considered a prudent move. Test flights typically carry a mass simulator, taking the place of the payload in the form dead weight, like concrete or steel blocks.”
isn't the whole premise of private sector space voyaging that they can do it faster and better than NASA and are willing to take risks?
I can think of a number of things they could have done, and perhaps different orbits they could have achieved, with a payload they could have built on Silicon Valley tech know how.
Even hauling a very large jug of water would have been more useful than what they did.
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stevep
Boulder climber
Salt Lake, UT
|
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There probably were more useful things he could have done, somewhere in between a Tesla and a concrete block. Don't think you would have wanted to launch an expensive experiment on a rocket with a high likelihood of failing, but still, they could have found something.
But...
It was marketing. Musk is trying to get people excited about space. And I do think it's a little beyond just his own personal commercial interests. If putting something fun up there in a distant orbit helps motivate people for space and science, I'm OK with a little bit of fun.
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
|
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So I just happen to follow Paul Bloom on Twitter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Bloom_(psychologist);
His tweet a couple of days ago links just perfectly, I think, to this thread and the views expressed here.
"There are 2 kinds of people. (1) Those who think that @elonmusk putting a car into space is exhilarating & admirable. (2) Those who think it's foolish & wasteful. You can tell a lot about a person based on their feelings about this.
(I'm in category (1), for what it's worth)"
https://twitter.com/paulbloomatyale/status/961021050875203584
Notables: (a) The word "wasteful." (b) "You can tell a lot about a person based on their feelings about this."
One might think climbers would be a bit more inclined to category (1).
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Brian in SLC
Social climber
Salt Lake City, UT
|
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Its interesting...
Every local news channel here had that shot of the starman in the car...
A younger generation might get some inspiration?
What else drives a bump in math/science? Grumpy old dudes spraying about the waste of launching sports cars into space? Ha ha...
Innovation drivin' by the selfie...is still innovation.
The whole show is just kinda fun. And...that's...ok...
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
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very deep analysis in a tweet, no doubt, I wonder if he cites them in his CV.
Inspiration comes from many different places for different persons, no doubt about that either. When you think about Musk's ambition to colonize space, a truly serious intent would build on what is known about the challenges. So as risky as a first launch of a heavy lift rocket might be, the opportunity afforded by a successful launch to preplace resources for a future program would seem rational.
And currently inexpensive resources on Earth, like water (required for life), are very expensive to lift into space, and potentially useful for future spacefaring enterprises.
My main criticism is really just voicing my disappointment. I think that Musk can essentially do anything he wants, if he can raise the funds, at the moment, but that he could also have been more serious about his planning.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
|
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h-index, another cosmetic...
you can look mine up too while your at it
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
|
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Hardball. All right, I'll play.
you can look mine up too while your at it...
No humility there, lol.
Curious, how many singular or dual author citations you got? What would that h-index be, I wonder?
This ain't about you, Ed.
It's about a Tesla Roadster and Starman in space, a successful launch, and all the excitement and inspiration and last but not least science and engineering accomplishment that comes with that.
The visual of Starman in a Tesla Roadster (itself a major innovation of the times) with our Earth Island Blue Marble as backdrop is going to be in the minds of generations for a long, long, long time to come. THAT is a major emphasis here.
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Ed Hartouni
Trad climber
Livermore, CA
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Curious, how many singular or dual author citations you got? What would that h-index be, I wonder?
This ain't about you, Ed.
precisely, it's about doing good science and engineering, being a part of a team where everyone contributes...
...not about sending my little red roadster into orbit. Maybe King Missile wrote a related lyric...
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Ricky D
Trad climber
Sierra Westside
|
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Feb 10, 2018 - 03:54pm PT
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What Elon has done with the Tesla in Space is make space fun and exciting to the average person like it was in the go-go years of Mercury and Apollo.
For most of the past couple of decades we have seen mostly feeds of some boring quasi military guy eat Jello on the Space Station. Hardly a whoopee moment after a couple of hundred times.
In the.end, Elon has shown the watchful aliens that humans can still do silly things.
It's one of our special powers.
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Feb 10, 2018 - 04:36pm PT
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What was Elon thinking? A DACA recipient could have been driving that car to college or work.
May be a political statement about having a dummy at the wheel.
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Feb 10, 2018 - 04:51pm PT
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Just think for a minute ,that car may outlive our planet and life here ,because of ............
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Ricky D
Trad climber
Sierra Westside
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Feb 10, 2018 - 04:54pm PT
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I'm not so sure about the DACAs...they busted 2 of them smuggling illegals into California this week.
Probably just raising money for college tho.
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Feb 10, 2018 - 04:58pm PT
|
The Tesla is a little bit for SpaceX fun and excitement.
But the main reason was cross promotion. You couldn't buy that exposure and coolness factor for millions of dollars for Tesla. It was an incredible bargain for that company. 1 used car for all that free marketing. Genius.
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nah000
climber
now/here
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Feb 10, 2018 - 06:57pm PT
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sorry... can’t help myself:
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Feb 14, 2018 - 04:58pm PT
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WBraun
climber
|
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Feb 14, 2018 - 05:46pm PT
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Everything is perfectly provided on this planet for the living entities to be happy.
Instead, these st00pid gross materialists and their st00pid so-called modern science have mismanaged it all into a self-destructive world.
Now they want to travel by mechanical means to other planets and follow their same st00pid mismanaged methods.
All idiots!
These st00pid destructive clueless modern cavemen, st00pid so-called modern scientists do not know that thousands of years ago people could travel to other planets without mechanical means.
These modern clueless fools will destroy everything in their paths due to their ultimate poor fund of knowledge of life itself ......
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Feb 22, 2018 - 06:08am PT
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Musk is fixing to launch another one of his st00pid rockets from Vandenberg in about ten minutes. 6:17 AM. Look west and up and you should see it.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 26, 2018 - 02:29pm PT
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The Model 3 is a bona fide POS. The LA Times savaged it last week. Lots of pissed of
Musk Aid drinkers. And Fuggetabout it being reasonably priced. Apparently you can’t get
one for less than $49K, and many run over 60K! Tesla refuses JD Powers from accessing
their data. People are flocking to the Chevy Bolt.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Really Reilly?
https://electrek.co/2018/03/01/gm-cant-take-advantage-tesla-model-3-delays-chevy-bolt-ev/
German automaker tore a M3 apart and had this to say...
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/auto/elektroauto-im-fahrbericht-das-model-ist-teslas-neues-glanzstueck-1.3866854
“Each sub-assembly system was put to the test, but the testers were especially impressed by the power electronics. Compact, expandable, fully integrated, modular, easily accessible, well-protected, reasonably priced and astonishingly clever in many details – that was the verdict of the experts, to which colleagues from other manufacturers also agreed.”
“This minimalism runs through the entire vehicle. There is initially only one engine, only one forward and reverse gear, only one driven pair of wheels, only one cooling circuit for the entire system.”
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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So you got proof that the Model 3 caused those Bolt sales to drop? How could it be if Tesla
isn’t producing any? The Model 3 is still an over-priced POS and Musk is a carny hawker.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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That graph has nothing at all to do with model 3 in any way. It is 100% sales of Bolt. To which you say people are flocking to.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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sixth sentence in the first paragraph
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mynameismud
climber
backseat
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know someone that had i3 hated it, traded it in for a bolt. A co-worker just got a Bolt. He bought based on calculations of saving gas since he has a long commute. Turns out his saving were conservative since now on the weekend everyone in the family wants to drive the bolt.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Just saw the model3 here in Vancouver. Four more months and they should be delivering them to us in BC.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
|
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Elon Musk is f*#king idiot with a company that has bad reputations among workrs
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oh yeah. How how could I forget. Fl and Elon are Satan. Ha ha! Listen to yourselves!
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Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
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Mar 12, 2018 - 08:31pm PT
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I'm ready to go! The weightlessness will relieve all my arthritic joints. My new business will be making Martian Mist from the carbon Dioxide atmosphere; purest ethanol, a Martian Vodka of highest quality. What Moose and I don't drink ourselves, we'll share with the Earthlings for $5000 a 750 ml bottle. Same as a superior grade Cognac.
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Mar 30, 2018 - 07:06am PT
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Musk is launching another one of his st00pid rockets from Vandenberg in about 5 minutes.
7:13 am Yosemite Valley Time.
Look west and up.
http://www.spacex.com/webcast
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Mar 30, 2018 - 08:09am PT
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Moody’s has downgraded Tesla’s credit rating to B3, one step from junk bond.
The shell game approaches its inevitable conclusion, but flashy rocket shows
are a nice distraction.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Mar 30, 2018 - 08:18am PT
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damn it, where's my car?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Mar 31, 2018 - 01:57pm PT
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Moosie is standing strong with his Tesla stock. He’s gonna ride it like Major T. J. "King" Kong.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Mar 31, 2018 - 09:44pm PT
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Majid_S: Elon Musk is f*#king idiot with a company that has bad reputations among workrs
That's what I've heard from more than one quarter. I used to teach a case study on Musk & Tesla. I also have a close friend who's a scientist there. He calls Musk a sociopath.
Musk has had great difficulties making production deadlines, and keeping senior managers--especially in those functions . . . sort of like the POS.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Apr 15, 2018 - 10:17pm PT
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Hopefully the hyped-loop will have the unexpected benefit of instantaneous sterility.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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Apr 17, 2018 - 09:31pm PT
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wait till Chinese car company sells similar model car in the US for half price. Your stock will worth 1/3
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Apr 18, 2018 - 06:16am PT
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Got my Tesla last month. Can't say I'll ever buy another ICE. It snowed a foot here yesterday, northern BC, and the thing handles better with summer tires on the subsequent ice roads than my Subaru or Tundra 4wd did with not winters, but ice tires.
Convenience of not standing out in the cold to fill up with gas, or make gas stops at all. Sub 4.5s 0-60 is fun. More room to sleep in the back with the seats folded down than my 4Runner had and about the same as my Outback. But I can keep the climate control on all night if I want. There is a reason people like the product! Supply and demand. The demand is high for a reason, now I know why. The supply is well, higher than all legacy automaker's BEV production combined.
They got up to 4270 BEV's made last week, and no inventory left unsold. I wish my company could increase production at that rate. Or even have more than a week's production on the schedule.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Apr 18, 2018 - 06:25am PT
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wait till Chinese car company sells similar model car in the US for half price. Your stock will worth 1/3
You mean 2/3. The fact that China has no respect for anyone else's intellectual property is already factored into the stock price. And 1/3 of Tesla is electric cars, 1/3 is electric production, 1/3 is electric storage. So make the cars worth 0 since we already know that anytime China makes a knockoff it overtakes 100% of the market, even the luxury market, isn't that right?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Apr 18, 2018 - 07:52am PT
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Today’s LA Times:
Musk has second thoughts on aggressive automation for Tesla Model 3
By RUSS MITCHELL. APR 17, 2018
In early 2017, Elon Musk told stock analysts that Tesla Inc.'s goal "is to be the best manufacturer on Earth." He'd get there by inventing a factory so dense with robots and devoid of human beings it would resemble an "alien dreadnaught" video game warship.
Speed, he's said, "is the ultimate weapon when it comes to innovation or production."
Instead, Tesla this week was forced to bring the Fremont, Calif., production line of its crucial mass-market Model 3 electric sedan to a complete halt, according to the company. It is at least the second shutdown in the last two months. And in an internal email, Musk said Tesla will add workers and go to round-the-clock production to meet goals.
Officially, the company is describing the weeklong shutdown of the Model 3 line as "planned downtime" to "improve automation and systemically address bottlenecks in order to increase production rates."
Tesla executives hatched the plan weeks ago, a spokesperson said. "This is not unusual and is in fact common in production ramps like this," the spokesperson said.
Auto industry veterans disagree. Several said that stopping an assembly line for a car in commercial production is not only unusual, it's exceptional. And manufacturing experts say the retrofits being made during the shutdown will make Model 3 assembly more closely resemble other automobile plants around the world.
"Periodic shutdowns of hours or a day are not uncommon during pre-launch pilot build. They are unheard of in regular production, where he supposedly is," said Bob Lutz, the former General Motors vice chairman and noted Tesla critic, who has also held top executive positions at Chrysler, Ford and BMW.
"This shutdown is most likely for the purpose of ripping out all the '22nd century' fully-automated assembly systems which were going to 'revolutionize automotive manufacturing' and turned out not to work," Lutz said via email.
Dave Sullivan, an analyst at AutoPacific Inc., said in an email: "Traditional automakers adjust bottlenecks on the fly during a launch. This is totally out of the ordinary."
The news was another blow to Tesla shareholders, who have seen the stock price recover somewhat after plunging 17% in one week in April on news of production problems, a car crash involving the company's Autopilot technology and a big recall. Tesla shares fell sharply at the start of trading Tuesday before finishing down 1.2% at $287.69.
The shutdown caught workers by surprise as well. Over the weekend, Tesla ordered Model 3 assembly line workers to not show up for work Monday through Saturday. Take vacation days, they were told, or use up remaining personal days off, or elect not to be paid at all.
Workers were told at the last minute, a Tesla spokesperson said, because "the exact timing (of planned shutdowns) may not be finalized until closer to when it happens."
But on Tuesday, Tesla said in an internal email it will begin around-the-clock production and add another factory shift in Fremont as it tries to ramp up Model 3 output to 6,000 a week by the end of June. (Musk said the carmaker produced 2,250 of the sedans last week.) Between the Fremont plant and its battery factory, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks, Musk wrote in the email obtained by Electrek.
The company had previously said it was targeting production of 5,000 vehicles a week by around the end of the second quarter.
"The reason that the burst-build target rate is 6,000 and not 5,000 per week in June is that we cannot have a number with no margin for error across thousands of internally and externally produced parts and processes," Musk wrote.
"We are burning the midnight oil to burn the midnight oil," he added.
Musk described the 6,000 car last-week-in-June production level as a "burst-build" that will "lay the groundwork" for steadily high production rates a few months from now. That means any given week of production could fall far short, making third quarter production forecasts more uncertain than ever.
The shutdown came just days after Musk appeared on a CBS This Morning segment, admitting that Tesla over-automated the Model 3 assembly line. In the taped segment, CBS This Morning co-host Gayle King was led by Musk on a tour through Tesla's then-bustling Fremont factory.
Musk sought to reassure viewers that lessons have been learned and that the Model 3 project, considered crucial to Tesla's continued existence, was back on track. Musk offered few details about automation problems beyond the admission that too many robots were installed. But he did say that "we have this crazy complex network of conveyor belts and it was not working. We got rid of the whole thing."
The too-many-robots admission appears to be a sobering comedown for Musk, who has said automation would one day become Tesla's primary business. Today, Tesla builds electric cars, solar energy systems and battery storage devices.
Although he's famous for warning that humanity should fear the arrival of artificial intelligence, Musk is eager to see robots replace human workers at Tesla. "Parking is one of my biggest nightmares," he said in 2016, referring to the always-overloaded parking lot at the Fremont plant. "It's like you can't fit everyone."
In the CBS This Morning interview, Musk backpedaled. "Maybe you need more people here working," King told him. "Yeah, we do," Musk said. Later that day he tweeted, "Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated."
He also copped to over-ambition in the design of the Model 3 in the interview. "We got complacent about some of the things we thought were our core technology, we put too much technology into the Model 3 all at once." Tesla owner forums are ripe with complaints including dead batteries, body panels that don't fit right and malfunctions in the input-output screen. Many customer service calls, owners report, result in instructions to reboot the system.
For years, Musk and his lieutenants have said that the Model 3 would be easier to manufacture than the Model X sport utility vehicle, which remains riddled with quality problems, earning low marks in Consumer Reports. "We're really trying to take a lot of lessons learned from Model X. We put a lot of bells and whistles on Model X and a lot of advanced technologies that weren't necessary for version one of the vehicle," Musk said in 2016.
If the Model 3 assembly line cranks back up as scheduled Monday, Musk will be hoping it marks a fresh start. Progress toward Musk's goal of 10,000 cars a week by the end of December is essential if Tesla is going to fulfill his prediction that the company will generate more cash than it burns in the third and fourth quarters of this year, alleviating the need to raise additional capital.
Analysts such as Efraim Levy at CFRA are skeptical. Barring some sort of "manipulation," he sees no way Tesla can produce positive free cash flow two quarters in a row this year.
In the CBS interview, Musk dismissed stock analysts.
"The problem a lot of analysts have is they kind of look in the rearview mirror instead of looking out the front windscreen," he said. "People have underestimated Tesla because they have looked at [what] Tesla's done in the past and used that as a proxy for what we're able to do in the future."
russ.mitchell@latimes.com
Bloomberg contributed to this report.
Hope they don’t run out of Kool-aid, too.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Apr 18, 2018 - 08:40am PT
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Musk: "The problem a lot of analysts have is they kind of look in the rearview mirror instead of looking out the front windscreen," he said. "People have underestimated Tesla because they have looked at [what] Tesla's done in the past and used that as a proxy for what we're able to do in the future."
The 20-20 foresight of a visionary.
The past has always been the best predictor of the future, albeit at very low rates of predictability—especially when speaking of human behaviors and results. With regards to complexity, meteorologists have purportedly have the most successful prediction rates—50%. The weather tomorrow is most likely to be what is today.
I may have told this story before. I was at a Dzogchen retreat about 8-10 years ago just outside Joshua Tree. The lama was a boisterous sort, so the retreat was wide open fun. At lunch one day, I was sitting at a table of 8, and we were arguing about cause-and-effect, free will, etc. Two fellows across from me were adamant that they had free will and could predict what they would and could do. Some of us were not so sure, so theoretical arguments ensued. One of the two fellows said he would predict what he would do next, by golly, and said he would get up and get another cup of coffee. His ideological colleague said that he’d do the same, and both walked smartly off to do so. Both went to the coffee pot, served themselves, and after getting cream or sweetener, they ran into each other and spilled their coffee onto the floor. We roared.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
|
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Apr 18, 2018 - 08:52am PT
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Not sure about his cars, but Musk can and does turn on a dime.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Apr 18, 2018 - 09:04am PT
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What is the point of piling on and criticizing the guy besides making small people feel bigger?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Apr 18, 2018 - 03:35pm PT
|
You talkin’ about The Donald or The Elon?
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Apr 18, 2018 - 05:53pm PT
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Ah, a believer.
My wife worked for Chambers in his heyday and then for Amazon. She's an excitement junkie. That's how we found our way to climbing. Most all of our climbing friends were working for SV firms. I taught MBAs who were working there. The hype was as thick as honey. And honey it could be for many people in the right place at the right time. Even now retired, my wife still gets drawn into missionary, visionary, strategy-critical projects.
It's like a drug or a tornado. You get sucked in. I mean, it's fun and all, but it takes your a part of your life from you.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Apr 18, 2018 - 07:25pm PT
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So what benefits are there to cutting people down and being condescending or pointing out the negative with every post?
Power just went out all over Puerto Rico today except for 662 customers because they had Tesla PowerPacks or powerwalls. Which is entirely a good thing. But I’m sure you guys have only negative commentary available because it is connected to the nerdy kid you like to bully. Right?
days later Edit:*crickets*
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Dood puts the ‘A’ IN Arrogant. I’d love to know what he said about Moody’s when they downgraded his credit rating to junk status.
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Rock!...oopsie.
Trad climber
the pitch above you
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Dood puts the ‘A’ IN Arrogant.
No argument there.
Moody's
Uh, they're also a bunch of arrogant tools that make things like the '08 meltdown possible through willful and self-serving selective blindness.
Anyone involved at high levels of any corporation or high finance is de facto an as#@&%e to some degree. That's how they got there.
I took today as a buying opportunity. Yeah, he may be a tool, but he does have a vision and has made some previously untenable things a reality (viable electric cars / reusable space technology at a fraction of NASA prices).
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Gotta love a devoted contrarian. Tesla is the poster chile for the big time
shorters after that séance of a conference call. Actually, they've been
upping their short antes for a while. Oopsie, ya gonna snap up some Tesla
junk bonds when they come calling with their hat in hand in the third quarter
when the cash runs out? BwaHaHaHa! I know, Henry Ford declared bankruptcy
a few times before he got it right. You do know Elon lied all along about
producing a $30K 'affordable' Model S, right? Did I mention they're losing
over $22K on EVERY MODEL 3 THEY SELL? Helluva business plan that.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Tooth: So what benefits are there to cutting people down and being condescending or pointing out the negative with every post?
I don’t think that’s what people here mean to do.
I think we’re fascinated by visionaries who create new communities or who have considerable talent--but who fall from grace. It’s a form of dramatic tragedy: characters who over-reach; hubris; Daedelus (the punished innovator) and his son Icarus (flying too close to the sun); etc.
There are also romantic heroes (where most everything goes right); comedic heroes (where everything goes well enough and is mildly funny); or ironic heroes (where good things come from the bad and vice versa).
Which story do you feel attracted to? Which one do you think is "most truthful?"
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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o what benefits are there to...pointing out the negative with every post?
Because, to coin a phrase, the market climbs a wall of worry. Yer welcome!
Idolatry is fine, but not for an investor.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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For a smart guy, he's not to smart.
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brotherbbock
climber
So-Cal
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^^^ too.....
;)
Don't cast stones.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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I never claimed to be smart.
But I did manage to retired at 50.
LMAO
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skitch
Gym climber
Bend Or
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I heard E-Musk is building a life size replica of earth, and will put it in the same orbit...and tesla owners get to live there for half price.
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brotherbbock
climber
So-Cal
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I think you meant "retire". LOL
Glad you never claimed to be smart Frumy, but you did bash someone else for not being smart.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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How many Tesla/miles does it take to offset the carbon footprint of one rocket launch?
That’s some big time hypocrisy! Oh, I forgot, the Teslas are just buying us time to move to Mars.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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SomebodyAnybody: If not for the existing launch infrastructure he essentially rents, courtesy of the US taxpayer, he wouldn't be doing jack sh#t at a fraction of NASA prices.
True, but irrelevant.
Organizations with big fixed costs are obsessed with making breakeven. Any firm can take a loss for a while from not covering variable costs, but if they can’t make breakeven, they will be out of business very soon. Organizations in industries that require heavy fixed assets (e.g., infrastructure) will find ways to make up for what they don’t use (excess capacity when demand is low). They’ll sell off their excess capacity at bargain basement prices. It’s common. Little specialized players will show up, buy up excess capacity, and serve niche buyers at good prices. Some companies took this idea to the bank; IKEA bought up excess capacity in Eastern Europe long ago, and over time turned those little manufacturers into very competent producers.
Some industries require HUGE investment (like telecom) but cannot develop a unique product from it (for higher prices). They’ll sell excess capacity if they get the chance.
I hope the Federal Government does something useful with its excess capacity.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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I think he currently cares more about how Grimes rates him than Moody's.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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I spent many years working in the automotive manufacturing business. The issues that Tesla is having producing the Model 3 are predictable for a newbie manufacturer of a mass-produced car. The positive side of Musk's approach is that he can start over on all designs and simplify them to get better engineering solutions. This is a huge advantage in complex systems which have otherwise been built up over time with compromises to accommodate prior decisions. This is the reason Musk is so successful. But low-cost mass production relies on suppliers to make components which are assembled into Tesla cars. While cars are large, almost all of their many parts must be precisely made for the vehicle to work, for both fit and function.
Another important, associated issue is the degree of component precision required to use automation: the more automation you use, the tighter all of the tolerance have to be in the components. Robots are pretty dumb; they do exactly what you tell them to do. They do not have much capability to make adjustments for variation in the parts. This is an enormous driver in the need for very tight tolerances. As parts are assembled, the tolerance stack-ups get wider. They may be centered on a mean value, but the tails of the distribution get longer. In an automated system, a one-in-a-thousand chance will shut you down. There are too many chances. One-in-a-million chance with lots of chances built into component interactions can be too much and can cause constant shut-downs: the odds are low, but the number of tries can be very high.
Clearly the Model 3 has assembly issues because the parts are not being delivered on time or parts are slightly off and cannot be assembled, or, while less likely in my opinion, there are technical issues with the actual function of parts. I think that the Model 3 manufacturing system is automated from end-to-end, there is no sensible way to intervene if something goes wrong.
I don't know the details, but a normal procedure is to assume the worst and build many buffers between blocks of automation. Electronics are made this way because small components can be taken on and off the line. For big stuff, you have to build gaps to create a time buffer by making the line longer and to design for human interaction. There is probably not room to make the line longer at the old Nummi plant in Fremont, and it doesn't help much to have room for humans to intervene if there are no humans.
From an odds perspective, a rocket ship launch is less likely to go wrong than a continuous string of autos on an automated line. A rocket may or may not be more complicated than an auto--I don't know--but doing anything exactly right multiple times in quick succession is very hard.
Fixing these issues after a design is set is very expensive and very time consuming. Mass production requires that parts are made using high-speed tooling. Changing tooling is expensive. Everything is connected, so a solution here creates a problem there. Deciding what to do is contentious. Heads roll. My guess is that Tesla is discovering that they were not as precise as they needed to be when designing for manufacturing, picking vendors, and approving tooling. The smallest details can create havoc.
My experience with this comes from being a supplier to GM GMT-800 program in 1999 when GM completely redesigned their SUVs and Pickups from the ground-up, so to speak, just as Tesla has done with the Model 3. I was hired to launch the supplier's new $75mm per year business.
My business career is based on figuring out how to make stuff that has not been made. I know many, many ways to be 98% correct and fail %100 of the time. I even know a few ways to be 99.9% correct and fail %100 of the time.
The company I ran had the contract to produce the engine mounts for all of GMs SUVs and Pickups, about 800,000 vehicles per year in about 20 different pairs. Unlike the Model 3, the volume of production with a vehicle change-over is pretty much instantaneous--you stop making last year's model, shutdown the assembly plant for a couple of weeks and then start making the new model. If you cannot make the vehicles, the customers buy a different vehicle from another supplier. There are complicated processes to make sure that everything is ready.
Engine mounts are bolted to the frame and must match to mounts bolted to the engine. The engine is 'dropped' onto the frame side engine mounts and three holes on two different surfaces and different planes on each side must match the holes in the mating bracket bolted onto the engine. This is not rocket science: simple design as automotive designs go.
But, the frame is moving on the assembly line. There are only about 60 seconds to get this done. The holes are deep within the engine well and are hard to see. The engine is heavy. Jerking it around to get the holes to match takes time and can cause damage. It only works if the tolerances and the fit-up are very precise. It didn't work. It is worth pointing out that the cost of a line stoppage at a GM plant is about $20,000 per minute.
GM was convinced that we had messed up the tooling, for which we had charged GM about $2,000,000. We had not messed up, and our parts were precisely made to GM's specifications, but we jumped through hoops to find a solution. It turned out that GM's engineering team had designed the engine mounts assuming that the slope of the metal between the mating surfaces would guide the engine into place and all six holes would line up, but they did not tell anyone their assumption. It was a flaky idea borne of the engineering team's lack of relevant experience: they did not know how metal was formed, did not understand that we followed the tolerances shown on the design prints, and they had not worked on an assembly line. They also did not know how all the small misalignments would interact to hang-up the engine on one side or the other.
On their computer models everything was perfect, but in real life, the sheet metal thins out as you bend it: it does not stay where the computer models says it will be. We had software which showed us how the metal would thin out. But GM did not have this sort of software; they didn't need it: they knew everything they needed to know. I doubt they thought about it very hard. In any case, it was not a sensible design criterion.
To get them back into production, our quick-witted sales and engineering managers suggested that we take our engine mounts and weld a little button on each side of the upper nose mount, ground down to a precise dimension, to guide the mating of the two parts. The sales manager picked a number out of the air--a very high number, more than doubling the part's cost--to charge GM until we could change the tools and fix the issue. Within a day we had a solution and about three days later were shipping parts with this fix. It cost GM millions of dollars, but relative to not building vehicles it was a bargain. Out little company made a lot of money. GM appreciated our can-do effort.
It took many months to rebuild the original tools to add this guiding feature into the metal itself. We had to add cost to the newly designed parts which GM then added to our price. This was just one of many issues that GM faced in launching the new SUV and Pickup designs. After a year or two they had worked out the issues and could build good vehicles and they eventually made money on them. But they pretty much soured on the idea of blank-slate designs. As an aside, Toyota, which for many years was the best at vehicle manufacturing, never designed from a blank slate. Their first Lexus was a Toyota on which they upgraded the engine, cabin surfaces, and a few other components. Over many years, they eventually upgraded everything so that it became a completely different car. Toyota knows what they don't know.
This sort of manufacturing humility is probably frowned upon at Tesla. It is hard to change the world. It is also normal for pretty much everyone to underestimate the issues someone else will have with our best ideas.
I would guess that since Tesla's model 3 is brand new, the potential for these sorts of issues is magnified many times. It is also likely that they lack the sort of experience that is needed: how do you evaluate someone's ability to do something they and you have never done. Finding solutions is generally not easy because the team must both understand all the old ways of doing things and map this into a new world they are creating, anticipate problems their suppliers will have without being able to rely on their supplier fully understanding how the parts will be used, and work from a clean slate to achieve the promise of the new vehicle. There is just not enough horsepower to get it all figured out. It is as if everyone suddenly finds themselves promoted into a job they cannot do, living the Peter Principle, including Musk. That said, I would guess that Musk is probably personally involved in sorting out all the issues. Otherwise there is no one around with enough authority and know-how to break the logjams.
This story is the same for Boeing and its Dreamliner a few years ago. What could possibly go wrong with a brand new design, new materials, with all of the components outsourced to suppliers around the world who had never made them before?
From a business perspective, Musk is probably right to say that they will fix the issues. However, he is like everyone else in over-estimating how quickly he can get it done. He is also probably correct in lying to the press and shareholders about how easy it will be work out the issues. Otherwise, it just looks like they are stupid--they are not. They just underestimated how hard it is to figure out really complex systems. That said, they should, as techies, have taken a lesson from Steve Jobs, who had more misses than successes in his new products.
One fall-out of these sorts of great-designs-meet-the-real-world-of-manufacturing is that the initial cost targets cannot be reached. Some mistakes can be addressed with a one-time cost, but many of these sorts of issues can only be addressed by adding cost and complexity: the very things that Musk is very good at eliminating.
I hope he succeeds. But I would not buy a Model 3 for a couple of years.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Nice write-up, Roger.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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Thanks, Mike. Life after climbing, part 3.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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May 14, 2018 - 09:26am PT
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After my thread-killing post above, I am hesitant to post anything else on Tesla's Model 3 assembly issues. That said, I have had several conversations with friends over the weekend, one of whom is considering buying a Tesla. I suggested that he not buy a Model 3 for a few years. He urged me to look a the videos of Tesla's robotic assembly, so I read a few things and watched a few videos.
Monro and Associates takes new cars apart and details all of the technology and estimates the cost of the vehicle and all of its components. It has been doing this for many years. They purchased two Model 3 and took them apart. The upshot: the battery, the electronics, the drive of the Model 3 is fantastic. The fit and finish of the mechanical assembly is very low quality. Keep this dichotomy in mind as you read the this post.
The talk is about the automation being the source of the delays, but in my experience, the robotic automation and the fit and finish are related. Robots are blind, one-handed, and dumb (BOB), Monro's term. Anything done by a robot has to be very precise. As parts are added to the vehicle structure, the "skateboard" in this case, the tolerances become more and more of a problem. Bad fit and finish, and halting assembly, are natural out-growths of this.
In the Monro interview, Tesla Model 3 Teardown Analysis, its CEO, Sandy Monro, articulates what is great about the Model 3 and what is very bad. (The video interview is long and I am not sure how well it will translate to non-automotive viewers. I found it interesting and informative, but I could follow the threads of the conversations.) The question is how did they get it so wrong?
In 2016, Tesla hired a manufacturing executive, Peter Hochholdinger, from Audi, as vice president of vehicle production, filling a critical position as the automaker tries to make more Model X crossover SUVs, introduce a new version of the Model S sedan, and develop its mass-market car, the Model 3.
The head of engineering, is Doug Field, formerly from Apple. Apparently Field was in charge of both engineering and production, so as to avoid the sorts of problems they are currently having. Field is now taking a 6-week sabbatical, right in the middle of a meld-down, and Musk is taking control of the assembly issues.
As an automotive guy, I think that what is happening could be foreseen: there is no reason to think that even a stellar electronic products engineering executive would know what corners to look around in automotive assembly. If you are in doubt about this assertion, think about what you would have thought if Apple had replaced Mr. Field with a stellar automotive engineer from Detroit?
From the WSJ:
Tesla’s Engineering Chief Takes Leave of Absence at Pivotal Moment
Doug Field is stepping away for several weeks, according to people familiar with the matter
Tesla Inc.’s top engineer overseeing vehicle development is taking a leave of absence from the company at a crucial moment when the electric-car maker is struggling to boost production of the Model 3 sedan, according to people familiar with the matter.
Doug Field, Tesla’s senior vice president of engineering, is stepping away from the company for several weeks, these people said. One person described the absence as a “six-week sabbatical,” and Tesla declined to say when he would come back.
Mr. Field has been a key leader at the Silicon Valley auto maker since joining in 2013 from Apple Inc. He oversees the engineering of Tesla’s vehicles, and last year he was also given oversight of production to better align the two efforts. That changed this spring when Chief Executive Elon Musk said he retook control of production.
In April, Mr. Musk wrote on Twitter that he would handle direct oversight of production and was back to sleeping on the factory floor. At the time, he praised Mr. Field as “one of the world’s most talented engineering execs.”
In a little over a year, Tesla has seen many of its senior leaders leave, including its chief financial officer and sales president.
The hiring of Mr. Field from Apple, where he was vice president of Mac hardware engineering, was touted as a win for Mr. Musk, who had big ambitions for Tesla. Mr. Field had also worked at Ford Motor Co. and Segway, giving him unique experience in both the tech and autos industry.
“Tesla’s future depends on engineers who can create the most innovative, technologically advanced vehicles in the world,” Mr. Musk said in a statement at the time. “Doug’s experience in both consumer electronics and traditional automotive makes him an important addition to our leadership team.”
Write to Tim Higgins at Tim.Higgins@WSJ.com
Did you notice the Mr. Field was credited with having automotive experience from Ford? He worked at Ford for six years right after he graduated from college in 1987. In 1997, ten years later, how to integrate components was still not understood by Ford, GM, or Chrysler or most of their suppliers.
Where in all of this the Audi executive is not clear: there is a good chance that he knows what should have been done, but there is also a good chance, in my opinion, that he would not have a clue. Knowing how to manage a business as well organized as Audi is not anywhere close to knowing what has to be done to create it from whole cloth.
I also believe that Musk is probably the only person who can figure this out. I am not speaking as a fan; these sorts of issues are always figured out by someone like Musk.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 14, 2018 - 10:30am PT
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I thought Hochholdinger was a design guy? If so putting him in charge of production is strange.
Two Teslas crashed last werk. One ran into the back of a fire truck! Clearly, the kool-aid
drinkers buying Teslas are blind with infatuation, or just plain blind.
Meanwhile Musk has announced a “thorough reorganization’. Boy’s got a lot on his plate.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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May 14, 2018 - 10:50am PT
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Hochholdinger was a straight-up production guy in all his positions at Audi. In my experience with American, German, Japanese, and Chinese automotive executives, none were good bets to launch something brand new. That said it is very hard to figure out who will be good at large project management, new tecnology, and nuts-and-bolts manufacuting. I think that propably the only thing that should have been done and wasn't is Musk living at the factory for the past three years. Investors invested in Musk, not Hochholdinger or Field. In this regard, Musk and Tesla's board screwed up. Aside from Musk, the board doesn't look to bring much to the party. Shareholders should be upset. Hubris is an ancient frame of mind.
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miker12
Boulder climber
Us
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May 14, 2018 - 01:44pm PT
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Why the hell only reach people will fly to Mars?
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
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May 18, 2018 - 09:37am PT
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I was lucky to see a SpaceX launch last month. I spent a couple of months improving my thermal flying in Florida. I was about 4 hours from KSC.
I paid extra to observe it from the closest point, the LC:9 Gantry 2.3 miles away.
It was awesome. The noise was powerful, and got super loud when it was about 20 seconds into the flight.
Got a free hat and Falcon Heavy t-shirt....
Musk is a visionary. Willing to lose money for a decade in order to place himself in the lead.
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couchmaster
climber
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May 18, 2018 - 11:25am PT
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Great writeup Roger! The numbers at Tesla look bad to me. Moose invested in them, and good luck with it as they seem terribly overvalued now.
However, good news, The Boring Co will be starting to ship flamethrowers in a couple weeks it's been announced. Of interest, it appears that the regular carriers may have reconsidered the delivery of said devices.
http://archive.li/FXb8w
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jstan
climber
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May 18, 2018 - 10:46pm PT
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Great write up Roger. Read it all. When designing a new system we invariably break it into subtasks and assign different groups to do the tasks. The system engineer is concerned mainly with final assembly so in the drawing package that engineer gives most of the tolerance to final assembly; making final assembly easy. The person stuck with making small components has no tolerance and is left to make something perfect. These parts are generally referred to as "unobtainium." This leads to product being shipped with "holes in it."
New products require either giving power to someone who knows everything or to getting people to talk to each other. Homo sapiens are not inclined to do either of these things.
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nah000
climber
now/here
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May 18, 2018 - 11:05pm PT
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yup another couple +1s for Breedlove’s posts above... missed them until now. interesting and well written insights... thanks.
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Roger Breedlove
climber
Cleveland Heights, Ohio
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May 22, 2018 - 05:05am PT
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The Consumer Reports conclusion sucks. I don't know how much sway they have in the market place, but they have excellent test protocols. No one launching a new product needs to have the product itself panned.
Separately, a friend who is in the market for a new car is considering a used Tesla S. He loves the car, but when compared to other luxury cars, it is too expensive. Also, the word is that a Tesla is great if you don't have any issues, but that Tesla's service is not good. This does not surprise me given that their business model, but is probably not such an issue with the luxury S. That said, Tesla S and X models have below average reliability scores, bracketed by Jeep and Lincoln. Not good company for cars which cost as much as a house. Reliability become an issue with more customers and lower cost cars. Tesla should hire old guys from KIA to help them with this issue.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Tesla's top two, below Musk, quit last year. Right after having 400 million in deposits on undelivered cars, and borrowing 500 million on top of 1.2 billion in existing debt. They are burning through cash faster than they are producing cars.
It will be interesting to see how long before the bubble pops.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Bipolar people can be very productive and if they're intelligent and motivated can take big risks that others might not in their grandiose moments.
But I sure wouldn't bet the farm on 'em like getting on a rocket headed to Mars.
I still don't get the fully-electric car thing when hybrid designs make so much more sense.
The "self-driving" option takes a special kind of stupid to turn on except maybe in emergencies. IMO, if they removed that feature they'd be a lot better off.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Man I have enjoyed driving my X this month! Now I can get to Squamish every weekend since it is free to drive the 4 hours - and enjoyable too!
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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(Interesting that there would be a thread on investing in a single company. There are many good (and bad) stories out there that could be discussed. I guess folks need a focus to talk about what interests them. Me, too.)
Roger,
IMO, companies at the stage of development like Tesla (who is also a standard bearer for a technology) must scale. It’s all they really think about. It’s important.
To be a long-term competitor, firms must find ways to get their costs down. In industries such as this, scale enables it. Scale is necessary. I worked at Cisco Systems for a while, and it was all they could think about. In their time, they made more money than God, and they did everything they could to build scale. Car companies show this understanding since that same God was in knee pants. Scale brings so many benefits to the buyer other than costs, too—like experience curves and customer linkages and the excess capital to increase customer service, etc. In many industries, “size matters” (for you males who could not give up long-necked beer bottles, me included).
Yo, I don’t mean to sell any spirituality here, but almost everything that one sees in business can be explained. Knowing does not mean solving. Almost anyone around the block can see / find problems in organizations. Given that there are scarce resources, the question becomes: what are your priorities (usually 3 or less), and how are you going to deal with them?
I recently read a historian who claimed that it was only relatively recently that work became work. Beforehand, it was the way one expressed himself part and parcel in the community. General managers now must find ways to energize and engaged the people who make up the organization. Vision, charisma, mission are all pretty important. In this regard, Tesla has an audience. However, as I’ve heard (only from a very biased sample), on the inside, all’s not perfect with Tesla.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Express oneself? I thought the idea was to make money? Ya goes onto StuporTopo to express yerself, on yer OWN TIME! Course, if yer bankrupt then ya gots lots of time to express yerself.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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When all the truth comes out, people are finally going to realize that Musk was a decently talented tech guy, who got exceptionally lucky to make his initial fortune, bought into his own hype and bullsh#t, and is so far from a "visionary" or "genius" it's not even funny.
I'll give Musk more credit than that. He made his initial fortune that no doubt was a combination of skill and luck.
He started a private space company from scratch that, if I understand correctly, is actually profitable. That is jaw-dropping. Rocket science is hard. I would have thought it would have been easier to be the first new car manufacturer in 80 some years.
He created a brand new sports car company with a fanatical, Apple iphone sort of loyalty. Amazing.
His initial sports car seemed to be doing pretty well.
But if you keep betting the company on trying to scale up and the next thing, giga-battery factory, mass produced cars, electric semi-trucks.
I think eventually you are going to roll snake eyes.
I'm not optimistic Musk is going to make it mass producing electric cars on low margins.
It may be too late, but if he really wanted this to succeed I think he should sell Tesla to a large car company. When VW was trying to get out from under diesel-gate, they would have been a good choice. They know how to mass produce cars on low margins and Tesla would have fast tracked their switch to electric. But I'm not sure VW would get as much out of it today.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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He created a brand new sports car company with a fanatical, Apple iphone sort of loyalty.
Not sure that is a rousing endorsement. The guy recently killed in his Tesla was a 38 yr old Apple software engineer who wasn’t either smart enough to read the manual or pay attention.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Moose,
Market domination is most often a result of many factors, most of which are pretty much out of people’s control. History plays a big role, and very little events can end up having an unforeseen effect that creates market winners. There is also market dominance from uncompetitive behaviors.
I think someone once said that every business fortune has some larceny in its history. I can’t think of a market that is really free. One might think farming and commodities markets would appear to be most “open and free,” but there are many things that go on in those markets that tilt the playing field.
I would add that there is also luck, but I don’t really know what that is or really means.
If you want to point to a good business organization, find one that has truly innovated twice in a row.
As for the brilliance of Jobs and the wonder of Apple, there is quite the story how Apple “innovated” the MacIntosh and then essentially squandered an 8 year lead on Microsoft. The story turns on how Xerox created PARC and then ignored innovations that later created new and different industries. The whipping that Microsoft later gave Apple was not lost on Jobs when he returned to the Chief Executive suite. He finally understood how to create what are called “lock-outs.” (There is now a relatively new branch of economics that describe “increasing returns to adoption.”)
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Rocket science, despite public image, really isn't "hard".
The fundamentals aren't hard, but significantly lowering manufacturing costs, developing reusable components, and dramatically upping your launch tempo is actually quite hard.
The "hyperloop" is one of the single stupidest things I've ever seen get funded. The scale and cost of infrastructure involved compared to something like standard high speed rail, vs the very small advantages, should have killed that in the conceptual stage.
Interstate and urban permitting issues alone warrant exploring all possible options, particularly on the east coast. And that includes highspeed rail and energy infrastructure like direct-current electrical transmission interties. It's also what forced Google-led Atlantic Grid Development, LLC offshore onto the continental shelf for a new east coast interconnecting transmission line and even it is running into issues attempting to bring power ashore.
Developing a fast, multipurpose tunneling technology really isn't crazy at all.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Rocket science, despite public image, really isn't "hard". Cutting edge medical technology is hard. The "hard" work has already been done in that arena.
The fundamental difference here is that being a new car manufacturer requires scaling a very complicated manufacturing effort quickly, in a notoriously cyclical, intensely competitive, low margin business, before running out of working capital, on top of competing to win enough market share to stay in business at all. Competition is against corps with extensive experience, capital-intensive existing infrastructure, and enormous scale.
Private space launch company is competing against - who exactly? There aren't many alternatives to getting, say, a com satellite into orbit. This while using, for a tiny fraction of the cost of establishing, taxpayer funded launch facilities.
Rocket science, despite public image, really isn't "hard".
It was coined in the 60s. We use it now as a metaphor.
DMT
Sure, we put a man on the moon in the 60s. It is still a low volume, high risk activity. Really expensive satellites regularly fail to reach orbit. It happened last January.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-satellite/u-s-spy-satellite-believed-destroyed-after-failing-to-reach-orbit-officials-idUSKBN1EY087
January 8, 2018
A U.S. spy satellite that was launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, aboard a SpaceX rocket on Sunday failed to reach orbit and is assumed to be a total loss, two U.S. officials briefed on the mission said on Monday.
...
Northrop Grumman built the multibillion-dollar satellite, code-named Zuma, and was responsible for choosing the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle, both officials said.
If multi-billion means "3" billion and if the Model 3 goes for an average price of ~$50,000, you could buy 60,000 Model 3's for the price of one rocket failure. If Tesla could ever, actually, you know, deliver said vehicles.
From the media reports, its not clear if SpaceX is to blame or if "a payload adapter" built by Northrop is to blame, but it still looks like the mission was sunk by "rocket failure". This stuff isn't an off-the-shelf commodity.
Private space launch company is competing against - who exactly? There aren't many alternatives to getting, say, a com satellite into orbit.
I'm not against the US trying to encourage a free market space industry. When the idea was floated, it wasn't clear that a private start-up could ever get enough reliability to compete with government agencies such as NASA, direct contracts (not free-market) from the military, and then there are the Russians, Europeans, and Chinese who will all launch commercial satellites for a fee.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Will his time machine let me know when to short Tesla stock?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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“If Tesla could ever, actually, you know, deliver said vehicles”.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Somebody be playin’ with their numbas! If the Model 3 is already at 30% of market share how come I’ve seen like 3 of them, ever? I could go out and see 3 of any of those others in the next 2 minutes, just within two blocks! Where they hiding ‘em?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Share of sales. For the month stated on the graph that we learn to read in grade six. It doesn’t say percentage of cars on the road. It is market share of sales for the month, over 500/day. Or are you just playing dumb? Just laugh it off and pretend you were trying to be funny and top it off by being patronizing.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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You reading comprehension challenged types are so gullible, not to mention humourless.
You do have my sincerest pity.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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That would be one of the most impressive market share grabs in history. According to the graph, Tesla’s share went from, what . . . 4% to 30% in 6 months. Wow!
Reservations are not sales. The graph is not lying, but it’s hardly telling the truth.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 10, 2018 - 04:54am PT
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Those aren’t reservations. They are US deliveries. You really don’t know that they are building and delivering almost 5000/week now? Most are coming up here to Canada right now do they don’t pass the 200,000 mark this month and trigger a 50% reduction in the federal tax credit for you Americans. If you wait till July 1 the reduction kicks in December 31 instead of June 30/October31 scenario which means thousands of Americans missing out on the tax credit. Once they turn off the Canada deliveries in July you will see the red line on that graph spike even more.
If it were a reservations graph, there wouldn't be any other manufacturers on there, since they aren't taking reservations, just orders painfully negotiated at a dealership. Plus, the red line would be much higher, 450,000 reservations and growing. This business model of having all that demand means all the supply will be sold, no 2017's left sitting on lots like with the i3, Leaf, Bolt, etc.
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A Essex
climber
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Jun 10, 2018 - 05:47am PT
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Trumpo will heavily tax and effectively ban electric vehicles
mark my words
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 10, 2018 - 06:15am PT
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 10, 2018 - 07:20am PT
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The fact that Ford and GM haven't gone into the electric segment in any meaningful way for automakers that large tells you something. The fact that 10 years ago Elon put together a 10-year plan, and now has part 2 out, hitting all the goals along the way tells you something. The fact that there is a crossover and then truck coming up next in the lineup tells you the rest of the story.
Taking any one piece of the pie out of the story tells you something, but an incomplete part of the puzzle.
An interesting comment on the price... my monthly budget hasn't changed after switching from payments and fuel and insurance on a Tundra to payments and fuel and insurance on a Model X. The fuel part offsets the payments part. The insurance is the same. I figure giving an American company money for their auto is the tradeoff I have to suffer if I can't give Saudi's money for their oil.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 10, 2018 - 02:33pm PT
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Those aren’t reservations. They are US deliveries. You really don’t know that they are building and delivering almost 5000/week now?
And based on Tesla history, those Model 3s will have more recalls than all the other vehicles you showed on that graph combined.
They are, at most, delivering 5000 prototypes a week.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 10, 2018 - 02:45pm PT
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Not from what I have experienced. But certainly the story according to the hyped media to fool the unaware.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 13, 2018 - 08:49am PT
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True to Elon’s tweet, shorts have lost about two billion so far this month on $TSLA.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Jun 13, 2018 - 07:45pm PT
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Tooth: Taking any one piece of the pie out of the story tells you something, but an incomplete part of the puzzle.
Let's look at that.
You did notice, didn't you, that the category presented is almost entirely "electric vehicles?" It's a niche. (It's been made clear from the beginning, that Musk will not make hybrids, which has much better economics, production economies, and surer technologies.) Electric passenger vehicles has been a niche for the last 15 years.
BTW, My research from industry trade rags indicated the claimed sales were reservations. Perhaps you have a more compelling source than Tesla itself.
I applaud innovation when I see it. But in corporate enterprise, it's a two-step dance. One, new product innovation. Two, innovation in production, otherwise called commercialization. The second one is waaayyyy harder. Trust me on this one.
As I think I said above, scale will determine a winner in a heavy capital intensive industry. I grant you that Tesla may be winning in his niche, but until he achieves the kinds of economies developed by truly innovative production capabilities (think Toyota about 15-20 years ago), Tesla will remain a niche player and not be able to become a dominant player in the industry.
There is a long list of one-off innovators who were impressively successful, but very very few who did it twice in a row. Musk is attempting what they would call in hockey a hat trick.
Be well.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Jun 13, 2018 - 10:24pm PT
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Yes! In most ways, we all want the company to succeed.
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couchmaster
climber
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Jun 15, 2018 - 03:39pm PT
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Elon Musk news I didn't see posted. Some of it's almost a month old but here ya are:
After ripping the dishonest media on Twitter, Musk said he was going to start a web site to keep a scorecard on truthful vs untruthful reporters and news sites. He was going to call it Pravda but it turned out some Russian folks had that site. He was happy to find that PravDUH was available, so look for Pravduh coming up.
Next: The Boring Company ran into issues on shipping the Flamethrowers noted upthread but deftly renamed them so as to not run a fowl of the law. The newly renamed "NOT A FLAMETHROWER" is now shipping. So look for those to show up at your homes soon kids, and remember, they don't ship with fire extinguishers. The "overpriced" (Musk's exact wording) Boring Company fire extinguishers are available at extra $$$.
Lastly: the name for the Tunnel Boring machine has been determined. The newly named machine, called Godot, (LOL! crap - this stuff is all so funny) is hard at work. https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/13/elon-musks-boring-machine-electric-sled/
There's a video of the sled which they expect to carry cars at 125 mph underneath cities which is pretty good. Don't watch it if you have seizures. https://www.instagram.com/p/BT_itC8h0Cx/?utm_source=ig_embed
...a fowl...heh...
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 15, 2018 - 04:19pm PT
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On BBC I heard them talking about the Chicago hole. At its peak it would handle 2000 bodies/hour which is what a decent subway handles in a few minutes. It’s just that subways are for proles and punters and fancy schmancy E ticket tubes are for toffs. I just don’t get why all you pinko proles think it is so swell.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 15, 2018 - 06:06pm PT
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Хорошо! I’m gonna invest in the new electric Zhiguli!
BTW, FYI, I’ve plenty of TSLA stock, I live to yank yer chain. You knew that, right?
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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Jun 15, 2018 - 09:50pm PT
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1000 Tesla employees got emails at 1 Am in the morning to participate in a online meeting, at 8Am the next day, security removed their badges and and let go.
There 155 electric car company of some sort now in silicon valley working on the next cheap electric car and 80% are from China
Tesla will be filling chap 11
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Jun 16, 2018 - 10:24am PT
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Musk has positioned Tesla as a growth company, but he just had to lay off 9% of his employees. That, and the company is having problems with their fundamental task: building cars. Today car makers are enjoying a boom while Tesla is shrinking. I think we're about to see the ideals of the tech world collide head on with the realities of the car making world.
You know the old adage, buy low sell high? Now might be the time to do the latter.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 16, 2018 - 12:09pm PT
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Tesla will be filling chap 11
It is certainly possible Musk runs it into chap 11. I still think it would be a better move to sell it to another car maker before it got to that point. Musk would probably only do that if investors really forced him to, but that could happen.
And even though I think the odds are against him, I don't rule out the possibility that Tesla gets through this rough patch and some day becomes a profitable company.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 16, 2018 - 06:12pm PT
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It is certainly possible Musk runs it into chap 11
Possible?
If you retards ever read my posts (and anything else other than The Daily Worker) you would recall that not long ago I posted Tesla’s Altman Z-Score, a respected and quite reliable measure of a firm’s liklihood to go bankrupt. Solvent firms run in the mid to high 4’s. Anything less than 3 is cause for grave concern. Below 1.8 and it’s time to call the undertaker. Tesla’s, as of only a few week’s ago, was 1.3!!!!! Glowing press releases and Chairman Musk rants ain’t gonna fix that.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 16, 2018 - 09:58pm PT
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17,000 cars burn each year in the US but one Tesla makes the news. 17,000 climbers summit a route each year but one rope soloing couple falls off el Cap and my mom freaks out that I’m headed out climbing since that’s all the news talks about. Even though a gas car burns four times more often than a battery car and a newb raps off his rope more often than those of us who have been climbing for 20+ years.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jun 17, 2018 - 04:15am PT
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Moose, I suspect he is hoping you don’t suffer unduly from yer recto-cranial infarction.
The man is trying to tackle some of the biggest problems of our times. Going to Mars is a problem? It’s not even a First World problem! And please don’t disillusion me by telling us you think his elitist subterranean white elephant benefits anything remotely close to the majority of us. And the problem of building cars economically is only a problem for him, and his crankloon kool-aid drinking investors.
BTW, I think I erred in saying I have much TSLA stock. I sold most of my funds with it quite a while ago and put the money into bonds. I’m sure I still have some but I haven’t bothered to look.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 17, 2018 - 07:26am PT
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I sell carbon sequestering machines. They are called trees.
If you are worried about powering electricity with dirty coal plants or something , look at the stars and what power has been added this year and what is in the pipeline. The grid is getting cleaner and has the possibility to go all non carbon producing. Gasoline cars do not have that trend or option. I’ll keep my overpriced golf cart since it is run by falling water and sunlight here and it can outrun any car that doesn’t do 0-60 in 3.4 seconds.
Here's a good article from the dailykos
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Upfront: If you think that anything is justified against a person simply because that person is wealthy, this is not an article for you. If you think it’s okay to lie, mislead, or otherwise attack a person simply because of their financial status, consequences be damned, then you should probably look elsewhere. You won’t have far to look.
We, Model 3 owners and people on the waiting list, have noticed a strange, disturbing, but all too explicable trend whenever the topic of Tesla comes up with people who don’t follow the company in detail.
“Tesla… didn’t they go bankrupt?”
“Too bad you’re never going to get your car, given that they’re going bankrupt. They lose money on every car they sell.”
“Isn’t that that car that killed people?”
“I wouldn’t get into one, with all those fires.”
“But all their management is fleeing!”
“I can’t support Tesla, they treat their workers terribly.”
Yet the reasons for these sorts of reactions, as frustrating as they are, are all too clear. Let us begin with the basics.
1. It’s hard to overstate how much people stand to lose from Tesla’s success.
Contrary to a newly emerging narrative that Tesla has “had it easy” in the press, Tesla has been smeared from Day 1. Back in the Roadster Days, TTAC for example ran a “Tesla Deathwatch” series, supposedly counting down the days until Tesla’s inevitable bankruptcy. Top Gear famously staged a scene where the Roadster supposedly ran out of power on the track and had to be pushed off (it didn’t), suffered a dangerous brake failure (it only suffered a blown fuse and never lost braking power), and a bunch of myths about EVs in general and the Roadster in particular, concerning charge time, range, and general usability.
But then, it was just an ideology at stake. Today it’s much, much bigger.
Tesla is the most shorted stock in the United States — 10,7 billion dollars bet against it. What does this mean? In short selling, you pay a stockholder interest to “borrow” their shares, which you promptly sell, with an obligation to buy them back for the stockholder later. Because these stockholders would not have otherwise sold their stock, it injects new stock into the market, which depresses the stock value. Inversely, when shorts cover their position by buying the stock back later, this creates extra buying that otherwise wouldn’t have happened, elevating the price.
Short selling is always dangerous, but it’s unusually dangerous when a large portion of the stock is in short positions. The downside to a short position is technically unlimited; if you shorted a stock at $1 a share and it rose to $1 million a share, your losses would be a million times your investment. To prevent shorts from getting into a situation that they can’t get out of, short positions come with contractual obligations to cover their shorts (aka, buy back the stock) if the stock price rises too much. However, as shorts buy back stock, this raises the price of the stock, which can trigger other shorts to be forced to cover. This self-perpetuating cycle is known as a short squeeze. The more of a company’s stock is shorted, the more of a risk there is for a short squeeze, and the more the price will spike during it; in a Tesla short squeeze, the shorts would have to buy nearly a quarter of all of the stock in the market in a relatively short period of time. But most entities holding Tesla’s stock are long-term investors, and correspondingly don’t want to sell. This puts even more upward pressure on the stock.
Tesla has gone through several short squeezes before (due to the large number of people who either don’t believe in EVs, don’t believe in automotive upstarts, or just simply don’t like Musk). But never on this scale. To reiterate, if Tesla’s stock rises too much, people with 10,7 billion dollars bet against Tesla stand to utterly lose their shirt
So far, they’ve managed to control this. As production delays with the Model 3 have been being resolved and the company moves toward an increasingly clear road to profitability in Q3/Q4, short sellers have been increasing their short positions, offsetting the gains in Tesla’s stock that would normally occur.
t.jpg
But this tactic has run out of rope; they’re running out of stock to short. Only a fraction of the available stock is in institutions that lend to short sellers; they cannot endlessly borrow more to sell, and what remains is now charging much higher interest rates to do so.
Literally the only thing short sellers can do at this point to try to hold the price down is FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt). And they have $10,7 billion dollars on the line in order to do so.
2. It should be understood who, exactly, the shorts are betting against.
When people picture Tesla’s stock holders, they generally picture a bunch of silicon valley hippies investing to save Mother Earth. Reality, however, tells a different story. The largest owners of Tesla stock are, in order:
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (9.21%)
Fidelity Management and Research Company (8,23%)
Baillie Gifford & Co Limited. (7,53%)
Tencent Holdings Ltd (4,95%)
Vanguard Group Inc (4.20%)
Capital World Investors (2.62%)
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company (2.04%)
Jennison Associates LLC (2.00%)
BlackRock Inc (1.29%)
State Street Corp (1.47%)
BAMCO Inc (0.96%)
Invesco PowerShares Capital Mgmt LLC (0.81%)
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP (0.75%)
PRIMECAP Management Company (0.65%)
Geode Capital Management, LLC (0.61%)
Goldman, Sachs & Co. (0.57%)
Morgan Stanley & Co Inc (0,55%)
Around 3/4ths of Tesla’s stock is held by major institutional investors — companies who have built their empires based on choosing good stocks. Furthermore, institutional investors have recently been increasing their stakes in the company.
The shorts aren’t betting against dirty ignorant hippies that Tesla is going to fail. They’re betting against ruthless Wall Street bean counters.
Why did these firms invest?
3. Tesla’s vehicles have large margins.
A common myth is that Tesla loses money on every car they sell. This can only be arrived at by the most naive of calculations: taking their quarterly losses and dividing by the number of vehicles sold. But Tesla has been spending massive amounts of money on capex in order to build huge factories and expand their store, service and charging networks in advance of the flood of new Model 3s. Rapidly growing companies run negatives (see Amazon), and it’d be utterly irresponsible of them not to. No investor in such a company wants the company to start paying dividends when they’re small; they want them running at as much of a loss as they can sustain while they divert all of their funds into scaleup.
So how does Tesla actually do on a per-vehicle basis? To that, we turn to the quarterly reports. Before Model 3 production became significant — aka, just S and X sales — Tesla was earning a 25% non-GAAP margin / 27,9% GAAP margin in their automotive division. These are very healthy margins. As Model 3 production ramped up — and famously encountered difficulty — Tesla’s gross margins fell, bottoming out at 13,8% non-GAAP and 18,3% GAAP, before rising back to 18,8% non-GAAP and 19,7% margin.
Now, working against Tesla’s budget sheets has always been two big line items: research and development, and SG&A (Sales, General & Administrative expense). The first, however, rises little to none in proportion to the volume of vehicles being manufactured. The latter rises somewhat in proportion to manufacturing volume, but less than linearly, and more to the point you have to pay much of it in advance of reaching high volumes. In short, over the coming years, these will become swamped by the (ever growing) automotive margins. Nothing to mention Tesla’s emerging solar and energy storage product lines, both of which should start becoming significant late this year.
4. Let’s just pretend that none of that was true.
And let’s pretend that Tesla was actually in trouble, for the sake of argument.
Tesla has significant physical assets which they can borrow against which they have not yet borrowed from
Tesla can reduce R&D at will (and to a lesser extent, SG&A) — the two main negatives on their balance sheet.
Tesla can dilute its stock by issuing new shares; with nearly half a million people on a waiting list, the intrinsic value of the company means that there’s always going to be a buyer.
Musk can create contracts at will from SpaceX (and, to a lesser extent, Boring Company). SpaceX is on a roll and flush with cash.
Musk can sell off a portion of his SpaceX stake to personally bail out Tesla. There’s a massive demand for buying into SpaceX that hasn’t been able to be filled because it’s privately held. And Musk has shown repeatedly throughout his history that he isn’t, if anything, afraid to go personally “all in”.
To sum up: Tesla is in no way, shape, or form going away. Period.
Oh, and I forgot to mention the executive departures: there have not been an unusually high rate, Tesla just has an unusually large number of people at the director/VP level or higher. But don’t let that interfere with breathless headlines like “Tesla Executives Continue To Flee As The Company Goes Rogue” (Forbes), “There's something wrong: Tesla's rapid executive turnover raises eyebrows as Musk thins the ranks” (Financial Post), etc.
5. The scaremongering, however, does not appear to be going away either.
1,3 million people die in road accidents per year. How many of them do you hear about? Yet literally every time someone dies in a Tesla (vehicles which are becoming increasingly common, and thus will be crashing more often), it’s front-page news — sometimes covered for weeks on end. If there’s a fire, the story is “EVs are dangerous in fires” or “Teslas are dangerous in fires”, despite this having been debunked years ago, and again recently. A gasoline vehicle is statistically five times more likely to catch fire per unit distance travelled than an EV. In the US alone, 174000 gasoline and diesel vehicles burn per year; where’s the headlines?
The reason for the safety, in case anyone is curious, is that the individual battery cells are not only physically isolated from each other, but also surrounded by non-flammable coolant; the rupture of one cell just dumps its heat into the coolant. A pack generally has to be severely mangled to be able to burn. Here’s the front of a Model S that was literally burned to the ground without managing to catch the pack (further back, under the driver and passengers) on fire:
img_2805.jpg
Of course, if there’s no fire, the standard fallback is, “blame it on Autopilot”.
Tesla has by far the most vehicles on the road with level 2 autonomy features. Level 2 means a combination of a human and a computer, with the human in charge. This contrasts with level 3 (the computer is in charge, but the human must be able to take charge at a moment’s notice), level 4 (the computer is in charge and can get itself out of trouble, but cannot drive in all conditions on its own), and level 5 (the computer never needs assistance). 1/3rd to 1/2 of all miles in Teslas are driven on Autopilot. Every time there’s an accident, there’s immediately entirely-baseless speculation that Autopilot was on.
Take, for example, the recent Tesla crash near San Ramon, CA. Right away in the first paragraph, speculation that Autopilot was on! Then again, 4th paragraph! Then concluding with a paragraph talking about deaths that have occurred when on Autopilot. Because of course, when you don’t know the facts, the perfectly responsible course of action is scaremongering, right? Of course, nestled in-between in this little nugget:
The driver's speed in the 35-mph zone was not yet known, but "it was great enough to leave the roadway, hit a fence, keep going down an embankment and into a pond on the property," Jacowitz said.
The fastest AP would allow you to drive on that road is 40mph. If the car was moving at a great speed, by definition Autopilot was not on. Despite having all of the evidence right in front of them, did they bother to mention this? Of course not.
By the way, Autopilot was not on. As is most commonly the case. The initial story got a huge amount of coverage. The reveal? Very little.
Of course, when Autopilot was at fault, they cover it for weeks or more. They’re still covering the highway speed crash into a stopped fire truck that left a woman (who was using her phone and not looking at the road) with a broken ankle. I’ll repeat: a highway speed crash into a stopped fire truck left her only with a broken ankle. Teslas have an amazing safety record, with an average fatality rate of 1 in 320 million miles, compared to the US average of 1 in 86 million. Yes, they’re on average newer, and yes, they’re on average in a higher price category. But this is nonetheless an amazingly good safety record. And to reiterate, 1/3rd to 1/2 of all miles on Teslas are on Autopilot.
One can rightfully understand why hearing “Is that the car that kills people?” is amazingly frustrating.
As an aside: we’ve probably all heard of the Consumer Reports testing, where they talked about how much they loved the vehicle, but couldn’t recommend it because after one emergency braking stop, subsequent braking stops were inconsistent in length, and sometimes worse than a pickup. They also reported problems with wind noise and a stiff ride (although these have been fixed for months; the CR cars are early production). Not as widely reported: Tesla diagnosed the problem remotely (ABS calibration), fixed it in a day, and rolled out the fix within a week. Compare that to, say how GM handled the ignition switch controversy — a decade of denial and downplaying. Just days ago, Fiat announced a recall for 5,3 million cars due to cruise control getting stuck on, leaving drivers in the terrifying position of having to fight their car to a stop with the brakes. But it got almost no coverage compared to the Model 3 testing, which required two emergency stops in a row, to brake like a pickup.
Regardless, Consumer Reports plans to retest.
6. Who needs shorts when you have UAW?
I’m normally very pro-union. I'm a union member at my current job, and (unsuccessfully) voted to unionize in my last job. But UAW’s actions in this regard have left a very bitter taste in my mouth.
Tesla’s Fremont factory used to be NUMMI, a GM-Toyota joint venture — and a UAW shop. During the automotive downturn in the late ‘00s, there was pressure to cut back on US manufacturing. To save their Detroit base, UAW dropped NUMMI like a hot potato. Workers were furious.
Because Tesla moved in, many of these same people now have jobs again, and UAW is about as popular there as the plague. They’ve been trying to unionize the Tesla factory for years and haven’t been able to get enough signatures; they can hardly even get anyone to show up to a free BBQ. But hey, if you can’t beat them, why not spend nearly half a million dollars to smear Tesla?
UAW frequently argues that the Tesla factory is “unsafe”. Most commonly they rely on data from three years ago (when Tesla was still learning mass manufacturing), which showed their factory as having a 33% higher injury rate than the national average (8,8 recordable incidents per 100 workers). Ignoring that they’re around the national average now, UAW neglects to mention that when the plant was a union shop, it had an injury rate of 30-45 recordable incidents per year before Toyota stepped in, and even in its later years was double the rate at the Tesla factory today.
(And for the record — Musk has publicly called for a vote on unionization).
7. But hey, send in the cavalry.
Step up Reveal, an “independent journalism organization” to start “reporting” on Tesla. Quotation marks are normally considered to denote sarcasm, and boy do I ever mean it.
Reveal seems to have made it their goal to prove that Tesla’s Fremont factory is some horribly dangerous place — in a manner that’s covered with UAW’s fingerprints. Strangely, they never thought to bother to mention a single injury anywhere else in the auto industry, because I guess everyone else is spotless. They additionally push the notion that Tesla has been “keeping injuries off the books”, ignoring that Cal/OSHA is probably the most stringent auditor in the nation and Tesla has never been cited for doing so (while the Big Three have been repeatedly cited — but you wouldn’t know this from listening to them). Mainly, though, they focus on “personal stories”, which are nice and convenient because even if they’re false, the company can’t respond because it would interfere in any potential litigation.
The first of their “personal stories” was about how a person involved in developing the factory was told that they can’t use yellow caution tape or beeping forklifts because they offend Musk’s sensibilities. The lack of these things, according to Reveal, could be to blame for the “high” rate of injuries.
Now, apparently Reveal never discovered The Google, or couldn’t allocate 30 seconds for fact checking, because literally you just go to Google Images or YouTube and search for the Tesla Fremont factory, and here’s what you see:
1.jpg
2.jpg
3.jpg
CBS This Morning
Etc, etc, etc.
After being repeatedly badgered by Reveal on Twitter, Musk responded sarcastically:
Reveal
✔
@reveal
21 May
Replying to @elonmusk and 3 others
Hi Elon. We'd love to have you on the show to talk with @al_letson.
Meantime, the story was based on internal company documents, interviews with five former members of the Tesla safety team and dozens of other current and former employees.
More detail:https://twitter.com/reveal/status/986294387259748352 …
Elon Musk
✔
@elonmusk
Cool, we can do the interview at Tesla in front of the yellow barriers & beeping forklifts you said didn’t exist. Please send your meeting request to wakassliar@tesla.com.
2:15 PM - May 21, 2018
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Now, having been duly corrected about their error, Reveal did the proper journalistic thing and promptly posted a retraction... haha no, I’m just kidding, they made no mention of their falsehoods and just doubled down on their single-target hit piece series.
In Reveal pieces, you can see the similar fact checking quality applied to everything they do. You’ll learn about the guy injured in an arc flash which threw him “15-20 feet through the air”, because apparently the laws of physics have stopped working and we now live in a cartoon. (Yes, we’ve all seen people “thrown long distances by explosions” in the movies; that doesn’t happen in real life. That’s done with hydraulics). You’ll also hear about the guy who was left with “permanent lung damage” when a piece of metal being welded near him caught fire and he breathed in the fumes. As someone who also welds, I know the sickness well; if you heat galvanized steel too much the zinc coating can catch fire, and the resulting zinc overdose you get from breathing the fumes leads to uncomfortable symptoms very similar to the flu. Also similar to the flu in regards to the fact that unless you overdose so much that it kills you, it goes away. Zinc is an essential dietary nutrient; your body digests it over time. You cannot be left permanently disabled by a zinc overdose.
Of course, Reveal has shown no interest whatsoever in fact checking. If you have anything bad to say about Tesla, by all means, give them a call. They'll write an article about whatever you tell them.
8. Enter Twitter.
For a while I had thought it was just we — Tesla owners and people on the waiting list — who were getting extremely frustrated by the way Tesla was being covered. Musk had — with the occasional snarky comment or retort — mostly been staying silent. That changed late last week. Irked on by a combination of aggressive UAW supporters on his twitter feed, Reveal, and an unfortunately timed false article condemning him for meeting with the Saudi crown prince due to Yemen (he never met with him; the journalist posted a retraction), Musk started tweeting about his annoyance with false reports and announced plans to create a crowdsourced site where users can rate journalists for accuracy. And Twitter lost its collective mind.
Just over the weekend it spawned four new controversies. From least significant to most:
1) NanoGate: Musk criticized a person (in response to their criticism of him) as them not being an actual scientist because they were crowdfunding “nanotech” research, and Musk considers nanotech to be a vacuuous buzzword. This is being widely spread (somewhat in the press, but mainly on Twitter) as “Elon hates science”.
2) CultGate: A person with legitimate journalistic credentials (Jens Erik Gould) tweeted to Musk an op-ed on The Knife analyzing recent coverage of him in the press, noting their heavy use of weasel-words about him and generally only citing one side of any given story. What Musk didn’t know (and wasn’t immediately obvious) is that Gould is now involved with a recently-prosecuted cult (NXIVM), and The Knife is one of their websites. When this was pointed out to him, Musk deleted his retweet and apologized. This is being spun (particularly in the press) as Musk just randomly tweeting out op-eds from a cult site because they happened to suit him.
3) MisogynyGate: Journalist Erin Biba — who had previously written personal attacks against Musk on Twitter (including about his genitals), but then hid her twitter feed when they were pointed out — condemned Musk for “attacks on science”. He responded, “I have never attacked science. Definitely attacked misleading journalism like yours though.” Biba responded by accusing Musk of misogyny, in a conversation that had literally nothing whatsoever to do with gender. She recently wrote an Op-Ed on the Daily Beast talking about receiving personal attacks from “MuskBros”, saying that Musk’s following on Twitter is “angry men”, even though just a cursory reading of the comments shows around a 50-50 gender split.
Is it worth mentioning that SpaceX’s president of 10 years, hand-picked by Musk (and one of the company’s first employees), is Gwynne Shotwell?
Myndaniðurstaða fyrir site:flickr.com gwynne shotwell
4) AntiSemitismGate: Perhaps the most ridiculous. When someone tweeted to Musk suggesting that powerful people were trying to destroy the media, Musk responded, “Who do you think*owns* the media?” A concept that we here, annoyed at Sinclair and the Murdoch empire, would quite agree with. But of course, why interpret something according to context when you can turn it into a smear? That’s right — the interpretation Twitter went with — and shamefully, some press accounts — was that Musk was trying to say that Jews control the media. Even more annoyingly, this led to an influx of deplorables into Musk’s twitter feed.
In case it needs clarifying:
Ben Collins
✔
@oneunderscore__
26 May
Replying to @elonmusk and 4 others
Uhhh Elon where are you going with this
Elon Musk
✔
@elonmusk
Pointing out to aspiring journo & Rodin spokesmodel, Josh Top, who thinks public polls are controlled by “powerful people” that the media is *owned* by same. Anyone who thought this was anti-Semitic is just revealing their inner bigot. The context is very clear.
9:07 PM - May 27, 2018
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For the record: while he’s not Jewish, Elon is a Hebrew name, and he’s proud of it. This year he took his children to Israel on spring break to learn about the country’s history.
Paid respects to Masada earlier today. Live free or die.
A post shared by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on Mar 19, 2018 at 4:36pm PDT
To sum up: I have plenty of disagreements with Musk. I think his journalism rating site is a dumb idea (crowdsourcing just leads to fights and ballot stuffing). I disagree with his universe simulation hypothesis, or that intelligent AI is around the corner. I think self-driving will take longer to mature than he assumes, and I think Venus is a better colony destination than Mars. I could make a long list of disagreements. But this level of attempts to distort and smear literally anything about him have been taken to absurd levels as of late.
Likewise with Tesla. Tesla can rightly be called out for setting way too aggressive schedules for itself, then failing to meet them. Early production vehicles are often not as refined as they should be (although Tesla nonetheless generally gets stellar owner satisfaction ratings). The Model 3 delays will slow down their expansion plans, and allow some of the late-to-the-EV-party automakers a chance to catch up a few years from now if Tesla isn’t careful (VW in particular is finally spending big). But in general, I think they’ve plotted a very prudent course — recognizing first the potential for li-ion EVs, changing their image, changing the concept of how long charging should take, and seeking to bring costs down while maintaining profitability through sheer scale. And regardless of whether you like them or not, they’re going to be around long into the forseeable future. Regardless of how desperate the people who shorted the stock in the $250s are to see that not happen, or how much bad reporting they can generate.
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McHale's Navy
Trad climber
From Panorama City, CA
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Jun 18, 2018 - 09:00pm PT
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Hey, I came here first to read comments on Musk's claims of company sabotage.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Jun 18, 2018 - 09:33pm PT
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he's a visionary
hmm, no.
a visionary doesn't sell flame throwers.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Jun 19, 2018 - 07:55am PT
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I guess tooth and moose are all in.
Good. It takes both sides to make a market.
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Jim Clipper
climber
from: forests to tree farms
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Jun 19, 2018 - 08:39am PT
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Bump for an immigrant trying to make a difference. One who maybe made some money along the way. Haven't they talked about immigration reform from both ends of the educationalsocioeconomic spectrum.
#Moosegrationtude
Edit:If Musk has enough at the end to pour some bucket loads back home,I might argue for rain bringer. Not a sociologist, but the potential turmoil caused by "their" AIDS epidemic, generations of institutionalized dehumanization, separation of wealth, etc., could be destabilizing. Anyone ever see him decorate himself with a diamond?
Edit edit: senegoal!
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couchmaster
climber
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Jun 19, 2018 - 10:01am PT
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Just a heads up, the smoke off those batteries is highly toxic. Next time you see a burning Tesla head upwind and get the f*#k away. Way way the f*#k away. If you even inhale small amounts, the hydrofluoric acid can, with a possible delayed effect, affect the nervous system, respiratory tract, lungs, and impair the cardiovascular system. You'll be messed up for sure. That's just to start. Who knows what long term effects will be.
If you feel even slightly impaired or are coughing excessively, have someone drive you to the emergency room ASAP. Nasty business that.
From my view, I hope Musk succeeds and succeeds wildly. Pushing the innovation envelope gets us all down the road to a better future. (usually). I love the guy and his humor, but wouldn't bet long or short on Tesla the company right now. I believe that it's the most overvalued company I've seen in my life. I expect that the stock will crash and crash hard, but I hope the company can continue. Anyone who saw what those guys pulled out with Paypal shouldn't be betting against Musk though.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Jun 19, 2018 - 12:13pm PT
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....believe that it's the most overvalued company I've seen in my life.....
Then you're not looking around.... netflix/amazon/google... The bubble is huge this time.. Musk is a zit.
At the very least they do make something and offer some kind of innovation, even if hopelessly improbable as a viable business.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 19, 2018 - 12:55pm PT
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In addition, the youngest generation do not want to live in the suburbs; they are attracted to live in urban environments.
I think it is great that urban areas have become nicer places to live. People walk more and drive less. Good for human health and environment health. Urban environments use less energy per capita and have better public transportation potential.
But lets see if those younger generations still like the urban environment when they start having kids and instead of being the drunk out on the sidewalk at 2:00am they are the ones being woken up and annoyed by the young drunks outside.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 19, 2018 - 01:04pm PT
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His primary mission is to fight global warming. Here is how.
1. Musk made EVs desirable. After Tesla's success, every car manufacturer is investing big money in EVs. More electric cars means less gasoline burned. Simple
2. Musk's investment in energy storage will bringing down electric battery prices, not to mention the improvements in the technology. (Since during the night electric energy is cheap, it makes sense to store it and use it during the day).
3. Musk's solar tiles are more likely to sell than those ugly solar panels. When connected to the battery (or Tesla car), this technology can make your house energy self sufficient.
4. The HyperLoop (don't confuse it with Boring Company), will be cheaper and more energy efficient than any current mode of transportation, and has the potential to be the fastest, too.
5. Boring Company is trying to solve traffic congestion. (Hope it does, although the project in the current form is not ideal).
1. Starting companies is hard. Creating a new car company and bringing out a sought after model is an accomplishment. But battery technology has improved a lot. It is very easy to develop a lot of torque with electric motors. Having a pure electric sports car and/or hybrids is a no-brainer. Somebody was going to do that. Credit to Musk for pushing things along a bit faster. Putting sattelites into orbit was also a proven technology. Again, credit for starting a company from scratch that does that. I don't believe Musk will live to see humans land on Mars. If that happens, my guess is that it is a vanity project by the Chinese in the same way (and at a similar share of GDP) as the USA moon project in the 60's.
2. Great that he is making a huge investment in batteries. He's not the only ones. The Chinese have similar scale projects.
3. More than one person has commented that solar panels should be the roof instead of being bolted on top of the roof. Hurray to Musk for pushing that along.
4. Hyperloop has nothing to do with fighting global warming. This isn't proven technology and Musk isn't going to bring it to market.
5. Nothing to do with fighting global warming. Although tunnels are a proven technology, I'm not sure that Musk is that serious about this one. And as others have pointed out, subways make more environmental sense than moving single occupancy cars through.
I still hope Tesla makes it. Still have my doubts.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 19, 2018 - 01:45pm PT
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Definitely not worshiping Musk. Never worshipped or knew the names of sports figures growing up! But I do like that we can have an option to internal combustion engines to drive and I prefer the option. I think it is a mistake, and wrong, to worship people. here is one guy who is accomplishing what every car company should be doing.
Driving electric cars and makIng the transition over time can happen so that power grids can adapt as well as technology to minimize mining harm. We can’t assume power grids will remain the same balance of power we had last year, it changed for the better overall this year already. Same with battery composition. Same with mineral extraction. Musk may bail/fail but he has succeeded in the goals he set for himself ten years ago. He will have personal scandals like Trump has had, but I like a lot of the salient points made by the article I copied/pasted above.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jun 26, 2018 - 05:41am PT
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I didn’t pay for this feature but I woke up to another over the air update this week. Dedicated to the memory of an 18-yr old who died while joyriding an S. I can also limit the kW available to the motors so that the acceleration is at a quarter power, like my Subaru or TOYOTA. Now owners can use their phones to limit the performance of their cars at any time, or put it in Valet mode or use Chill mode.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jun 26, 2018 - 01:52pm PT
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Definitely not worshiping Musk.
Yea, I don't get that one either. I keep hearing that he is"visionary". And I just don't see it. He is good at starting companies and bringing existing products to market. Be it batteries, electric cars, or launching satellites.
Now maybe he has a bit of Steve Jobs in him. Both the charisma and the ability to take something that either already exists or has already been tried, and create a well-engineered product with a huge markup. More power to him. But I'm not going to bet, or invest, on his chances of success.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Tesla just made more model 3 BEVs in Q2 2018 than Chevy, VW and Honda sold of all their BEVs in 2017 combined!
Can you imagine if I predicted that in 12 months a car company would begin to sell a new car that outsold all cars in its category from the top three automakers in that category and not only one of their cars but all of their cars combined? So sad. Time they step up and start providing what is in such high demand. The more you drive rlectric the more you hate ICE. I drive a Toyota yesterday and was choking on exhaust fumes in Vancouver. Something i havent experienced for a long time and wish everyone put HEPA air filters in their vehicles like Tesla. I mean, these others make millions of cars a year, why cant they make them as pleasant to be in as this startup company?
And for everyone who says Tesla or Elon is doing it wrong,” just look at his balance sheet”, what would you do different and why? And you cant change the 10-yr plan to fit you, you have to accomplish the 10-yr plans as well.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Tesla builds giant tent to ramp up Model 3 production; expert calls it 'insanity'
Tesla put together an “entire new general assembly line” in three weeks with spare parts, Chief Executive Elon Musk said. (Saul Loeb / AFP/Getty Images)
Dana Hull, John Lippert and Sarah Gardner
Bloomberg
Elon Musk has six days to make good on his pledge that Tesla Inc. will be pumping out 5,000 Model 3 sedans a week by the end of the month. If he succeeds, it may be thanks to the curious structure outside the company’s factory. It’s a tent the size of two football fields that Musk calls “pretty sweet” and that manufacturing experts deride as, basically, nuts.
I'll give him credit for thinking outside of the building box:
I wonder how many of those Models produced in that tent get recalled some day...
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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what would you do different and why?
Most new companies fail. Musk has done some impressive things but he has clearly hit a rough patch.
What:
If the primary focus was to bring Tesla electric cars to market in mass production numbers, as opposed to Musk's personal ambitions, I think the smart thing to do would be to sell the company to somebody like VW/Porsche.
Why:
To avoid bankruptcy and the company completely failing.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Your if is wrong. Thats not the ten year plan. Without Reading that first and then giving solutions the response seems silly. Counter-productive.
The goal isnt to do the safest thing or the thing least likely to go bankrupt. That is a great plan for Ford or someone concerned first with stock price and a routine existance. Those types of goals and thinking aren’t entrepreneurial and nothing gets started like that anyway. My sister thinks and operates that way and that is why she is an employee, not an entrepreneur.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Amazon is a different company but their plan remains. Note the difference.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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The first Tesla ten year plan did not. Day to day plans did. And this second ten year plan is out. Tactics and ways to actualize the goals will and do change. The higest level ten year plan doesnt with either company. Given that high level ten year plan, what would you do differently? This is a game we would play in business school on companies that we had info on for up until five years previous. We could then test our proposals against the reality if the past five years when we proposed the same game plan that the companies took.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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The goal isnt to do the safest thing or the thing least likely to go bankrupt. That is a great plan for Ford or someone concerned first with stock price and a routine existance. Those types of goals and thinking aren’t entrepreneurial and nothing gets started like that anyway. My sister thinks and operates that way and that is why she is an employee, not an entrepreneur.
I was asked what I would do differently and why and I answered.
I thought Musk was this visionary out to save the climate by making electric cars sexy. Or is he just another Amazon /Uber intent on world domination?
Sure if you keep betting the company you might double up. And you might not
For every Amazon/Google there are tens of thousands of entrepreneurs that went bankrupt.
It would be shame if Musk's ego sank what might have otherwise succeeded.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jul 13, 2018 - 11:27am PT
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Credit where credit is due:
Congrats Tesla on meeting the goal of 5000 cars/week by the end of 2017, I mean the end of Q1 of 2018, I mean the end of Q2 of 2018.
I guess I'm a little late, but so were they.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jul 13, 2018 - 11:36am PT
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Jim Brennan
Trad climber
Jul 5, 2018 - 06:23pm PT
68.7 million in state tax taken off of the back of any good corporate citizen is what shiny, happy people like.
Dentist, you should be the first to understand the devil in the details having made your living in the space a coffee cup affords.
There are always flees to get rid of, who learned how to talk.
So assuming this is correct, who is to blame? The guy who put the bids out to fifty states or the politicians who came in with a the bids to take tax money from individuals and give it to corporations (If you want to look at it that way)? Of all the billions of government subsidies spent on oil this year, who is to blame? Exxon or Schell who make billions in profit, or the government who gave it to them from your pocket? That money could have gone toward a wall, or have stayed in your pocket! U live in a capitalist republic. Don't blame the players. What would you say about a guy who didn't take the best bid and went with the worst one? Why not complain about the CA politicians who bid even more public money away (but overall didn't have the best bid so it hasn't happened with a GF yet?)
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jul 13, 2018 - 11:40am PT
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Capitalist Republic. Communist Dictatorship. Socialist Democracy. They all have issues. You are complaining about this one, you could have human rights issues like in China etc. That says more about your government to me than your fellow citizens who are just playing by the rules that you as a society have set up for yourselves. If you were a democracy, the popular vote would have won. Instead, the country has elected someone who is actively pushing for more of this sort of thing, building corporations with the help of government. Lowering corporate taxes, trade wars in support of USA, USA! The intent is there, and this will happen to more than just Tesla and 'clean' coal companies. Does it make the owner/owners/shareholders of these corporations little devils, or is the system that you all live in and pay taxes into kinda letting the little folks down?
I left the US when my yearly taxes started to get high and realized that I really am Canadian. I like having a public safety net for those of us in our society who need help, healthcare or home care. While watching stealth bombers fly by my office window each day in Guam and see where the majority of my tax dollars were going, I made the decision to move back to Canada. I don't think that individual, Citizens in your country are to blame for playing the game that is set up in your country. I see the inter fighting as needless and sad. I don't support it from a tax end, but I support Tesla by driving their SUV. So you could say I don't support the government directly, as I like another system better, but I do support the results and products that are put out by the results of how your system used to work. We don't know the results that will come out of the changes that are currently being made, but I'm sure it will turn out well for those who are already doing well!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jul 15, 2018 - 09:32am PT
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Please show me the facts to prove your theory that his presence slowed the production yet still hit the 5000/day goal only after he spent time there.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jul 15, 2018 - 12:30pm PT
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it was essentially three months with a tiny break of like one day that I wasn't there.
Yes, this how you want your CEO of 3 different billion dollar companies to spend his time and energy.
I mean what could possibly go wrong when your CEO is in the factory doing actual production work, making plans to create a boring company and selling this idea to cities, and running over to Asia to try and rescue kids from a cave.
I'm sure the companies run on autopilot just like Tesla's do.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 15, 2018 - 11:01pm PT
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Took a tour of Volvo’s Torslanda factory last month. For a place that puts out a car every minute it was amazingly serene. Nobody looked stressed in the least. In fact, because Volvo values its employees’ mental welfare (as well as physical - duh) everybody changes jobs at a rate of every 45-90 minutes so they don’t get bored and they can enjoy someone else’s company! Apparently the 1400 robots don’t enjoy that perq. But they didn’t look too bothered either.
Sorry, no pics, you have to give yer cell phone to the nice Swedish lady (actually she was American! 🙀) before you can get on the tram.
ps
In the interest of journalistic integrity I should point out that I’m pretty sure I saw some members of the Swedish Bikini Team working there, dungarees not withstanding.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Jul 16, 2018 - 06:02pm PT
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Musk is an ass.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jul 16, 2018 - 06:11pm PT
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622 miles on a single charge on a Model 3 is the new record. I just climbed in Squamish this weekend and slept in my Tesla both nights. Nobody bothered me (unlike in my Outback or Toyota) and I could keep the climate control on all night and it silently kept me cool while filtering out crap with the HEPA/carbon bioweapons defence mode. I never notice it until I drive my truck and can smell every other car on the road. We really need to make the conversion to electric. It is such a better product to use.
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Mtnmun
Trad climber
Top of the Mountain Mun
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Jul 16, 2018 - 08:10pm PT
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Elon should just STFU and stick to what he does best, build cool sh#t.
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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Jul 16, 2018 - 08:23pm PT
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Seems to be a real fool.
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couchmaster
climber
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Jul 18, 2018 - 07:10pm PT
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Please help Elon, GoFundMe started to put the kids back in the cave so Elon can rescue them.
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john hansen
climber
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Jul 18, 2018 - 09:44pm PT
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Moose I believe you bought in at $ 17 dollars a share,, you should feel pretty good.
Hope you bought a few thousand shares. At that price you can afford to hang around for ever in the hope Musk pull's it off.
Got in at 196 and out at 271. 38 percent over 40 months.
I can live with that.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 22, 2018 - 12:26am PT
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Something is wrong with the world, I haven’t heard a thing from EM or about Tesla in like days! WTF?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 23, 2018 - 05:54am PT
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Whew! I was wortied!
Reuters:
Shares of Tesla Inc fell more than 4 percent in trading before the bell on Monday, after a
report that the electric car maker has turned to some suppliers for a refund of previously made
payments in a bid to turn a profit.
Tesla has asked some suppliers to refund money paid by the electric car maker since 2016,
the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday citing a memo.
The desperation manifests itself.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 23, 2018 - 11:14pm PT
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Reiters:
By Kate Duguid | NEW YORK
The amount investors must pay to insure their debt holdings in Tesla Inc against declining
credit quality rose on Monday to its second-highest price ever, implying the company is at a
greater risk of default following a report that sparked concern that Tesla may need to raise
funds.
Insurance on Tesla's debt, which is sold as a credit default swap contract, increased from
Friday by 13 cents to $5.96 per $100 of Tesla debt. That followed a Wall Street Journal report
on Sunday that Tesla had turned to some suppliers for a refund of previously made payments
in a bid to make a profit, citing a memo sent by a Tesla global supply manager.
A Tesla spokesperson said on Monday that the company had no comment on the credit
default swaps, but said in a statement in response to the WSJ story that Tesla had asked
fewer than 10 suppliers to reduce capital expenditure project spending. Tesla said that any
changes with these suppliers would improve future cash flows but not affect its ability to
achieve profitability in the third quarter.
Company founder and Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk may be obligated to tap debt or
equity markets again this year, according to analysts, though he has said he would do neither.
The market's faith in Musk's ability to raise cash if needed has kept Tesla's implied risk of
default lower than similarly rated junk bonds and has propped up the price of its debt,
according to analysts.
Tesla's junk bond coming due in 2025 fell 1.75 cents to trade as low as 88.875 cents on the
dollar, its biggest drop since Moody's downgraded the company's senior notes to Caa1
following production delays.
It cost $5.96 to insure $100 of Tesla's debt, plus an upfront cost of around 18 percent,
representing a total of 24.1 percent of the face value of the 2025 bond on Monday.
"The CDS is saying that there are a lot of people betting this company is going out of
business," said Thomas Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory.
Tesla has burned cash ramping up production of its Model 3 sedan, which prior to July, had
fallen short of a series of targets.
Profitability has been elusive for Tesla. There is over $11.5 billion of short interest on Tesla's
shares, the largest of such positions in the U.S. market by dollar value, according to financial
analytics firm S3 Partners.
A short position is a bet that a company's shares will fall in price. Investors borrow shares in
the hopes of selling them and then buying back shares at a lower price to repay the loan,
allowing them to pocket the difference.
As a percentage of outstanding shares, Tesla's short interest is 20.4 percent, which places it in
the top 50 most shorted stocks on the Nasdaq.
The implied market probability of a default on Monday rose to 38.9 percent from 38.3 percent
on Friday, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon. The probability of a default was 34.19
percent when the credit-default swap contract, the first and only referencing a Tesla bond,
launched on June 27.
Compared to Monday's swoon in the bond price, the increased default probability seems low.
That is explained, however, by the illiquid state of Tesla's CDS, which have had only one
trader, Edward Koo at JPMorgan, regularly offering quotes on the swap, according to Reuters
trading sources who requested anonymity because the quotes are not public.
Because it has become harder to find third parties who are willing to take on credit risk via
CDS since the financial crisis, market makers sometimes have to absorb that risk themselves.
That raises CDS prices.
But the opportunity offered by Monday's falling bond price saw a market maker added to the
mix, with Goldman Sachs quoting an upfront price of 18 basis points to buy debt protection,
and 16 to sell, according to Reuters trading sources with access to the quotes. JPMorgan's
quote was 23 points for buyers, versus 18 for sellers, up a point for both parties from last
Wednesday's quote.
(Reporting by Kate Duguid; Additional reporting by Vibhuti Sharma; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jul 31, 2018 - 04:31am PT
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Jul 31, 2018 - 06:26am PT
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Tooth,
in the Credit box at the bottom of the illustration, you might consider citing where you got it. I assume you didn’t put the data together. There are a few science types here.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 06:52am PT
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And why is there a graphic of a Model X on that graph? Kind of calls into question its credibility, huh?
All those other makes actually deliver cars they sell.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Jul 31, 2018 - 07:36am PT
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and now he is selling surf boards. anything for a buck, eh.
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couchmaster
climber
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Jul 31, 2018 - 08:51am PT
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Man, haters gonna hate. OK haters, here's something else to hate on. Ever try googling "Tesla model 3 production chart"? You can get @ 20 versions of that chart from multiple sources. It's not hard, try it. http://redgreenandblue.org/2018/06/12/tesla-model-3-sales-blowing-away-plug-evs-us-market/
anyway-
Event coming up. Invitation only. You can pick up your "Not-a-Flamethrower" at the Boring parking lot.
"Hello,
You are invited to the following event:
Not-a-Flamethrower San Francisco Pick Up
Event to be held at the following time, date, and location: Saturday, August 25, 2018 from 11:00 AM to 5:00 PM (PDT)
A Boring Parking Lot in San Francisco, California
Event registration is by invitation only. Register with your email address to attend this event.
Get fired up! You are cordially invited to our Bay Area not-a-flamethrower pick up. We look forward to seeing you in a boring parking lot in San Francisco where you will be among the first to pick up your not-a-flamethrower! We are about to liven up our own event by toasting some marshmallows and prepping to take on a zombie horde.
RSVP by Monday, August 6th, 2018 at 11:00 AM PST.
Boring Rules
To attend the pick up, not-a-flamethrower customers must bring a valid form of ID that matches the name on the original order. Orders and tickets are non-transferable, friends and family members will not be able to pick up orders on behalf of not-a-flamethrower customers.
Customers will only be allowed to pick up their not-a-flamethrowers during their one hour pick up window. We are trying to solve soul-destroying traffic, but we are just getting started so please arrive on-time.
Each not-a-flamethrower customer will be allowed to bring one guest only (+1). Choose wisely.
Can't make it? Please let us know at flamethrower@boringcompany.com. We've got a long waitlist and a fellow not-a-flamethrower enthusiast will thank you for it!"
Heh, "get fired up".
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jul 31, 2018 - 09:30am PT
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The science types can calm down. I’m a scientist, or at least my first degree was. And I can handle reading material outside of journals. InsideEVs is where to get the entire delivery list each month.it should get posted tomorrow.
Anyway, just got off the plane and I’m headed to my car which got a free charge in long term parking so I can drive five hours home from vancouver. The mountains in Bolivia were amazing!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 11:11am PT
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Well balanced article in LA Times today on tomorrow’s earnings report conference call and the questions that should be asked- not on their website yet.
“One owner recently told The Times he’s been making lease payments on his Model X FOR FOUR MONTHS while it’s sat at a body shop waiting for a hood replacement.”
Nice! That tells me Musk has told his peeps “Screw our owners, put every hood from the suppliers onto a new car which we can sell.”
“Given numerous reports of battery failures on Tesla online forums...”
“Musk might also be asked about photos and aerial drone videos posted on Facebook and Twitter that appear to show thousands of Model 3s parked uncovered on huge lots outside Stocton and near the Burbank airport. Tesla’s media relations department said thoseare simply holding areas for cars that are on their way to new owners.”
You mean they can’t even get the cars they build to their owners because their ‘store’ philosophy is so inefficient?
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WBraun
climber
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Jul 31, 2018 - 11:18am PT
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“One owner recently told The Times he’s been making lease payments on his Model X FOR FOUR MONTHS while it’s sat at a body shop waiting for a hood replacement.”
That owner is an idiot.
Drive your car with a damaged hood and then put the new hood on when comes.
To put a hood on your car is piss easy.
Americans are soooo st00pid, spoiled and lazy .....
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 12:13pm PT
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Moosie, I put the ‘C’ in calm. Nuthin’ calms me like watching train wrecks.
Gotta run - just got a call from Indonesia! LOL!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jul 31, 2018 - 01:04pm PT
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You phunny, homes. You do know yer homies comprise the largest ethnic group in Norway?
Norway has significantly cut back on the numbers they’re letting in - they are a small country
and their wealth is not infinite. For the most part they’ve not had a lot of issues with their
recent immigrants, especially groups like the Poles and other E Europeans. Sweden, on the
other hand, has seen a huge increase in crime although the gubmint and its media lackeys
have made every effort to soft pedal it. Sweden is holding national elections in September
and some think the Social Democrats could be shown the door for the first time since the end
of WWII!
Norwegians still love us and the Brits. They still send a Norwegian fir tree to be erected in
Trafalgar Square every Christmas. If you go there do not miss the Hjemmefront Museum in
Oslo. It is the Resistance Museum. We stayed at a remote mountain lodge in the middle of
the country that was on the ‘Blood Road’. The Nazis brought Yugoslav partisan prisoners
there to build this road. One Yugoslav died for every 50 meters of road that was built!
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couchmaster
climber
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Jul 31, 2018 - 01:29pm PT
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Hardly blame them for needing regime change. They took a bunch of hot blooded young guys who live around women who live under tents and turned them lose with a bunch of half naked hot blonde beauties. Then they kept on doing it. If you want to help folks, why not go there and help them. Interesting that Sweden tried to sweep this under the rug by not keeping track of rapes by nationality.
2013 stats, it's worse now.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Somehow they are delivering more Model 3's in the USA than ever. Where is the demand coming from?
Some short-sighted people had nothing but negative predictions about amazon in their first 9 years.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Amazon at least had a revenue stream. Which is a lot more than you could say about a lot of dot com bubble companies.
But Amazon also had first mover advantage. Tesla doesn't.
In its growth years Amazon had nothing like the competition that Tesla has.
Toyota and others are already in the low end all electric market.
The German companies are putting huge resources into the upscale all electric market.
It would be like if Walmart had suddenly decided to compete head on against Amazon for online sales back when Amazon was first offering something besides books.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Tooth, numbers are just that, numbers.
Kind of like movies that make millions of dollars. Doesn't mean they're very good.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Did I claim they were anything else mr condescending? I drive an X. I know the movie is good btw.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Where’s the money gonna come from to buy back the shares?
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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He was making war on the short sellers.
Trouble is; if he didn't actually have the funding then he was lying and the SEC has him.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Unless it’s coming out of his checking account there’s no way he has that kind of cash so, yes, that is big time manipulation and he should get a room with Bubba in Leavenworth, KS.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Yeah. From my point of view, with really nothing but the media to enlighten me, Elon should be in jail! (I hope I don't look like a fool tomorrow when we all find out what he knows)
Wait, we found out today that SA invested billions many weeks ago, but are blind to the fact that that could happen again. The teaser, taster, went well, now someone is ready to go all-in. It's not impossible, improbable, or unprecedented. Why did we have our panties in a bunch again? Any number of companies like Apple have enough cash sitting around to make this happen. Elon doesn't, all his is tied up in his 20% share of Tesla stock. Not sure why your mind would have gone there first.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Where’s the money gonna come from to buy back the shares? Supposedly he would need $62 billion to buy back the stock.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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He wouldn’t need that much as supposedly some fanbois would accept shares in a private
Tesla. I would think he would need at least 30 Billion unless there are a lot more suckers
out there than I think there are. That kind of money doesn’t grow on trees nor would he get
much, if any, from an attempted bond float. Maybe he thinks he can sweet talk the Saudis
now that they’ve got skin in the game but I doubt it.
The real question now is whether Trump lets the SEC have at him. Sure seems like he’s
got some serious splainin’ to do.
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Duke
Social climber
PSP
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As a Tesla share holder, I along with many other share holders would have 0 interest in selling at $420. Will be happy moving to a private share holder position. No reason long term share holders would be interested in cashing in? Most have been in for a very long time.
Tesla is probably better suited to be private vs. public.
Musk owns 20%, and won't be selling.
If it happens, it will be the largest LBO of all time. It won't be easy as there are several tests that must be passed including a shareholder vote.
I also own the X. Like the stock it has out performed expectations.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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There are over 53 electric car/truck startup now in silicon valley and 90% are Chinese based manufacturer so What Tesla accomplished in 10 years, these guys are doing it in 1-2 years. You do the math
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Wrong. Nobody has accomplished what Tesla has. Not even ford in 100 years. Nobody has a supercharger network. Long distance driving capability that I would take over my ICE. Multiple models which are good to drive etc. Tesla has a complete and worthwhile product. Not a neiche one off product.
You are saying that Karma and others who have one working prototype for sale have what Tesla has.
I'm saying that Tesla has a compelling and viable mass-produced produce in three models that has the ability to have replaced my gas car with ease and which which I have put on 20,000km in the past 4 months when I could have chosen to take my ICE up here in northern BC. Because it is better to drive, own and operate and that those other companies offer the same.
Wrong.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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As a Tesla share holder, I along with many other share holders would have 0 interest in selling at $420. Will be happy moving to a private share holder position. No reason long term share holders would be interested in cashing in? Most have been in for a very long time.
Doesn't work like that. If you're out, you're out.
If you get all intransigent about selling, you'll end up with a motion to partition and you're on the outside looking in.
BJ, it looks like you don't know what you are talking about at all. He isn't out. Current shareholders are not out. Read Elon's tweet before and after the one that says $420 and funding is secured. SMH. Really? How ignorant can your comments be? Just because you haven't thought it through doesn't mean the CEO and board haven't.
@elonmusk
Def no forced sales. Hope all shareholders remain. Will be way smoother & less disruptive as a private company. Ends negative propaganda from shorts.
@elonmusk
Replying to @heydave7
Absolutely. Am super appreciative of Tesla shareholders. Will ensure their prosperity in any scenario.
@elonmusk
Shareholders could either to sell at 420 or hold shares & go private
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Did your ignorance embarrass you? If only you had read more than once sentence.... you wouldn't have been so wrong and had to resort to name calling reminiscent of pre-school. Good job BJ!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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You'd better hope the CEO got it all backwards with his tweetS or you'll look like an even bigger fool.
If it hadn’t been for his tweets you would know zero about this. So why are you latching onto part of one tweet and twisting it and then implying that the rest is a lie? Either take it all at face value or don’t. Creating fantasies out of part of a tweet makes you look silly. I have one fewer posts on this thread than you BJ.
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couchmaster
climber
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Ill take t"tings that don't matter worth a cuk for $100 Alex.'
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mucci
Trad climber
The pitch of Bagalaar above you
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I am buying another house with my earnings on Tesla this year.
Haters gonna hate.
Maybe it will implode, maybe knott, but I am getting mine.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Not all doubters are haters. I actually hope Tesla succeeds but I am in the camp that thinks they have less than 50-50 chance of succeeding as an independent car company.
Musk is a polarizing figure. The media hype and fan worship is annoying but whatever.
Musk is also a bit thin skinned. I could totally see him making an impulsive tweet about taking the company private in order to punish short-sellers. If that is the situation, I hope the SEC takes appropriate action.
And I would be a little reluctant to buy a Tesla. If the company goes completely under, future maintenance/battery replacement and resale value could all be an issue.
Although I think Tesla being sold is more likely than liquidation, but with Musk's ego, you never know how it might shake out.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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I am buying another house with my earnings on Tesla this year.
Haters gonna hate.
Maybe it will implode, maybe knott, but I am getting mine.
I suppose that's a bit like the Trump economy in general. Hard to say how it will play out, but so far at least, a lot of us are relishing the ca-ching! while it lasts.
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mucci
Trad climber
The pitch of Bagalaar above you
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Effie A DMT...
Ride that train. I worked for tesla doing all their food in house when they began, before the sedan, before the subsidy.
I watched the first sedans unveiling.
Talked to the engineers, and grease monkeys.
I have been “in” for over a decade.
South Bay style.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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The quality of the Mod S isn’t in question. The Tucker was also a great car.
The quality of the company is much more than just the car.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Reuters:
He has not provided details or evidence of the funding by Twitter or in a following blog posted on the Tesla web site, and several securities attorneys told Reuters Musk could face investor lawsuits if it was proven he did not have secure financing at the time of his tweet.
"The words 'financing secured' are the danger point – that’s a statement of fact and could set him up to be accused of a material misstatement if it's proven false," said Erik Gordon, an assistant professor at University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business with a background in law.
Using Twitter to announce materially important information is not common, but the SEC allows companies to use social media to announce key information in compliance with its fair disclosure rules if investors are alerted about which outlets will be used.
Musk is a prolific tweeter and Tesla alerted investors in a 2013 SEC filing that they should follow Musk's Twitter feed for "additional information" about the company.
There is no reference to Musk's Twitter account on the company's investor relations page under "investor communication," although Tesla's Twitter feed is included.
Some Wall Street analysts were skeptical of Musk's ability to gather the huge financial backing to complete such a deal, given that Tesla loses money, has $10.9 billion of debt and its bonds are rated junk by credit ratings agencies.
"Who gives $30 to $50 billion to buy back the shares?" asked NordLB analyst Frank Schwope. "And if you stay as a shareholder you get less information than before and you depend more and more on Elon Musk."
If you’re long Tesla you’re either an idiot, terminally greedy, or both.
The shorts are sharpening their knives.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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tooth
Look at Neo
https://www.nio.io/
This is one of the 53 companies I was talking about. my guess is that over 50% of their engineers came from tesla.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I don’t get it. You post skepticism and hearsay based on what the CEO introduced and you think there is a reason for me to respond? The SEC isn’t investigating anything, the shorts hired lawyers to ask the SEC to do so, and the SEC has responded by simply asking for a report to back up the word Secured that he used. Remember that in 2013 the SEC expressly stated that Elon could use Twitter as a mouthpiece.
So now you expect a response every time another guy posts another guys thought on the matter?
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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tooth, I don't think you're right, according to reports, the SEC is investigating Tesla/Musk.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-has-made-inquiries-to-tesla-over-elon-musks-taking-private-tweet-1533757570
They could be in a lot of trouble as his "announcement" significantly moved the stock price, just as it was clearly intended to do. (I'm assuming his statement was not true, as most people are now.)
I don't have strong opinions about Musk one way or the other except it's pretty clear he's been acting unbalanced, and that can have consequences when your a Twitter user / head of a public company.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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No. Have not opened an investigation. They have a preliminary inquiry that they are doing that won’t necessarily lead to anything more formal. According to Judith Burns the SEC spokeswoman.
The only way this could lead to an investigation is if it was materially false. By seeing as the Board has been discussing it for a week already, it doesn’t appear as if Musk shot of a random thought spur of the moment.
Of course everyone wants to know where the money is coming from and wish they had known about SA months ago, but if I were Apple, for example, asking to buy in , i would want my identity kept quiet until after the shareholder vote.
Notice the difference between news that reports on what someone’s emotional response to this is (like the links above that quote brokers et. al. ) and the bare facts about what has happened. Eg, Elon tweeting news on the company he is CEO of, on Twitter, which the SEC expressly states is fine to do in their resolution five years ago. Then the fact that Tesla both out out a blog post and reported what their Board has been doing about it. That’s all the facts. All the rest is speculation and hype. What do you gravitate to?
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couchmaster
climber
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The stock is overvalued as much as any stock in history it seems, I can recognize that for many of us we want the technology and the company to have wild success. They are differing things. If you want to drink the stock koolaid you will lose money, it is a matter of time when you will lose it, so drink in moderation. Good luck, and I too hope the company has great success.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I don’t own stock. Just an x. I agree that technically the stock is overvalued. But the driving/ownership experience of their product is undervalued.
edit:
Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Aug 11, 2018 - 02:56pm PT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares sold short has rebounded and are now higher than before CEO Elon Musk proposed on Tuesday taking the electric car maker private, according to data from financial technology and analytics firm S3 Partners.
As of Thursday, 34.75 million Tesla shares were sold short, up from 34.67 million shares on Monday, S3 data showed. Tesla is the most shorted U.S. stock.
Short-sellers aim to profit by selling borrowed shares, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price.
Short-sellers racked up paper losses of $1.3 billion on Tuesday after Tesla shares rallied 11 percent. Since then, the shares have given up all the gains and short-sellers have recouped about a $1 billion, the data showed.
The share fall has been fueled by investor skepticism over the deal’s prospects and media reports that U.S. regulators are asking Tesla why Musk announced his plans on Twitter and whether his statement was truthful.
Tesla and the Securities and Exchange Commision declined comment on Thursday.
Emboldened, shorts have pushed Tesla short interest percentage to 27.3 percent of the float on Thursday, up from 27.2 percent on Monday, S3 data showed.
“This hasn’t scared the large players in the market at all,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of research at S3 in New York.
Musk has come under pressure from hedge funds betting that Tesla’s stock will drop given its production issues and negative cash flow, and Tesla is the most shorted U.S. stock. He reasons that taking Tesla private would relieve that pressure.
“His whole focus on shorts is a misallocation of his time and resources,” said investor Christopher Irons, founder of independent investigative research website quoththeravenresearch.com.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
That boy ain’t as smart as he thinks he is.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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Aug 11, 2018 - 02:40pm PT
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The shareholder lawsuit has been filed. What took so long?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 11, 2018 - 02:56pm PT
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares sold short has rebounded and are now higher than before CEO Elon Musk proposed on Tuesday taking the electric car maker private, according to data from financial technology and analytics firm S3 Partners.
As of Thursday, 34.75 million Tesla shares were sold short, up from 34.67 million shares on Monday, S3 data showed. Tesla is the most shorted U.S. stock.
Short-sellers aim to profit by selling borrowed shares, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price.
Short-sellers racked up paper losses of $1.3 billion on Tuesday after Tesla shares rallied 11 percent. Since then, the shares have given up all the gains and short-sellers have recouped about a $1 billion, the data showed.
The share fall has been fueled by investor skepticism over the deal’s prospects and media reports that U.S. regulators are asking Tesla why Musk announced his plans on Twitter and whether his statement was truthful.
Tesla and the Securities and Exchange Commision declined comment on Thursday.
Emboldened, shorts have pushed Tesla short interest percentage to 27.3 percent of the float on Thursday, up from 27.2 percent on Monday, S3 data showed.
“This hasn’t scared the large players in the market at all,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of research at S3 in New York.
Musk has come under pressure from hedge funds betting that Tesla’s stock will drop given its production issues and negative cash flow, and Tesla is the most shorted U.S. stock. He reasons that taking Tesla private would relieve that pressure.
“His whole focus on shorts is a misallocation of his time and resources,” said investor Christopher Irons, founder of independent investigative research website quoththeravenresearch.com.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
That boy ain’t as smart as he thinks he is.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Aug 11, 2018 - 03:25pm PT
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Martha Stewart should explain to Musk what insider trading is when you are in prison,..
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 11, 2018 - 10:13pm PT
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https://v.qq.com/x/page/j0754tsjcjd.html
Chinese saying they are putting the GF3 into production as fast as possible.
The China 🇨🇳 Shanghai gov also declared that Tesla's 500,000 pure electric vehicles annual production are the largest foreign investment in Shanghai's history. Tesla is also the first 100% sole proprietorship of the foreign-invested company.
On the other hand, several China's largest banks are actively negotiating with the Shanghai gov to provide partial financing support for Tesla's factory in Shanghai. At the same time, Tesla began to publish Shanghai factory recruitment information on major recruitment websites.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 12, 2018 - 11:46am PT
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He reasons that taking Tesla private would relieve that pressure.
“His whole focus on shorts is a misallocation of his time and resources,”
Smells like obstruction to me.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 13, 2018 - 06:16am PT
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Sorry to take the wind out of a lot of conspiracy theorists/pessimists' sails...
“The Saudi Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is working to be part of any investor pool that emerges to take Tesla private, people with knowledge of the fund’s plans told Bloomberg News on Sunday. The fund, which recently built a stake just shy of 5 percent, is exploring how it can be involved, the people said on condition of anonymity.” Bloomberg
from here....
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-taking-tesla-private
Update on Taking Tesla Private
Elon Musk August 13, 2018
As I announced last Tuesday, I’m considering taking Tesla private because I believe it could be good for our shareholders, enable Tesla to operate at its best, and advance our mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. As I continue to consider this, I want to answer some of the questions that have been asked since last Tuesday.
What has happened so far?
On August 2nd, I notified the Tesla board that, in my personal capacity, I wanted to take Tesla private at $420 per share. This was a 20% premium over the ~$350 then current share price (which already reflected a ~16% increase in the price since just prior to announcing Q2 earnings on August 1st). My proposal was based on using a structure where any existing shareholder who wished to remain as a shareholder in a private Tesla could do so, with the $420 per share buyout used only for shareholders that preferred that option.
After an initial meeting of the board’s outside directors to discuss my proposal (I did not participate, nor did Kimbal), a full board meeting was held. During that meeting, I told the board about the funding discussions that had taken place (more on that below) and I explained why this could be in Tesla’s long-term interest.
At the end of that meeting, it was agreed that as a next step, I would reach out to some of Tesla’s largest shareholders. Our largest investors have been extremely supportive of Tesla over the years, and understanding whether they had the ability and desire to remain as shareholders in a private Tesla is of critical importance to me. They are the ones who believed in Tesla when no one else did and they are the ones who most believe in our future. I told the board that I would report back after I had these discussions.
Why did I make a public announcement?
The only way I could have meaningful discussions with our largest shareholders was to be completely forthcoming with them about my desire to take the company private. However, it wouldn’t be right to share information about going private with just our largest investors without sharing the same information with all investors at the same time. As a result, it was clear to me that the right thing to do was announce my intentions publicly. To be clear, when I made the public announcement, just as with this blog post and all other discussions I have had on this topic, I am speaking for myself as a potential bidder for Tesla.
Why did I say “funding secured”?
Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private. They first met with me at the beginning of 2017 to express this interest because of the important need to diversify away from oil. They then held several additional meetings with me over the next year to reiterate this interest and to try to move forward with a going private transaction. Obviously, the Saudi sovereign fund has more than enough capital needed to execute on such a transaction.
Recently, after the Saudi fund bought almost 5% of Tesla stock through the public markets, they reached out to ask for another meeting. That meeting took place on July 31st. During the meeting, the Managing Director of the fund expressed regret that I had not moved forward previously on a going private transaction with them, and he strongly expressed his support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla at this time. I understood from him that no other decision makers were needed and that they were eager to proceed.
I left the July 31st meeting with no question that a deal with the Saudi sovereign fund could be closed, and that it was just a matter of getting the process moving. This is why I referred to “funding secured” in the August 7th announcement.
Following the August 7th announcement, I have continued to communicate with the Managing Director of the Saudi fund. He has expressed support for proceeding subject to financial and other due diligence and their internal review process for obtaining approvals. He has also asked for additional details on how the company would be taken private, including any required percentages and any regulatory requirements.
Another critical point to emphasize is that before anyone is asked to decide on going private, full details of the plan will be provided, including the proposed nature and source of the funding to be used. However, it would be premature to do so now. I continue to have discussions with the Saudi fund, and I also am having discussions with a number of other investors, which is something that I always planned to do since I would like for Tesla to continue to have a broad investor base. It is appropriate to complete those discussions before presenting a detailed proposal to an independent board committee.
It is also worth clarifying that most of the capital required for going private would be funded by equity rather than debt, meaning that this would not be like a standard leveraged buyout structure commonly used when companies are taken private. I do not think it would be wise to burden Tesla with significantly increased debt.
Therefore, reports that more than $70B would be needed to take Tesla private dramatically overstate the actual capital raise needed. The $420 buyout price would only be used for Tesla shareholders who do not remain with our company if it is private. My best estimate right now is that approximately two-thirds of shares owned by all current investors would roll over into a private Tesla.
What are the next steps?
As mentioned earlier, I made the announcement last Tuesday because I felt it was the right and fair thing to do so that all investors had the same information at the same time. I will now continue to talk with investors, and I have engaged advisors to investigate a range of potential structures and options. Among other things, this will allow me to obtain a more precise understanding of how many of Tesla’s existing public shareholders would remain shareholders if we became private.
If and when a final proposal is presented, an appropriate evaluation process will be undertaken by a special committee of Tesla’s board, which I understand is already in the process of being set up, together with the legal counsel it has selected. If the board process results in an approved plan, any required regulatory approvals will need to be obtained and the plan will be presented to Tesla shareholders for a vote.
What is the sound that Saudi crickets make?
Whatever $2.7B landing on the table sounds like.
I'll just leave this here...
Replying to Reily -
Yeah. From my point of view, with really nothing but the media to enlighten me, Elon should be in jail! (I hope I don't look like a fool tomorrow when we all find out what he knows)
Wait, we found out today that SA invested billions many weeks ago, but are blind to the fact that that could happen again. The teaser, taster, went well, now someone is ready to go all-in. It's not impossible, improbable, or unprecedented. Why did we have our panties in a bunch again? Any number of companies like Apple have enough cash sitting around to make this happen. Elon doesn't, all his is tied up in his 20% share of Tesla stock. Not sure why your mind would have gone there first.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Aug 13, 2018 - 09:07am PT
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OK
crazy like a fox.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 13, 2018 - 09:19am PT
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I take it with a grain of salt because Musk has to cover his ass now that the SEC is investigating him.
But if the Saudis are willing to pony up big bucks both to take the company private and to provide funding at a lower interest rate, it would certainly brighten Tesla prospects.
If that happens, will be interesting to see if they would put up that much money while leaving Musk a free to do as he pleases.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 13, 2018 - 09:23am PT
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What is the sound that Saudi crickets make?
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Aug 13, 2018 - 09:29am PT
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Going private will make those things “inside the kimono” unavailable to the public scrutiny. It’s a way from having to respond to short-term demands from a wider base of shareholders (who are invariably far more concerned with short-term performance).
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 13, 2018 - 01:56pm PT
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I think it is to get away from the nattering nabobs of negativity otherwise known as short sellers.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 13, 2018 - 01:59pm PT
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What is the sound that Saudi crickets make? The sound of one wing chirping.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Aug 14, 2018 - 08:49am PT
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So he had a twitchy twitter finger but we now have the Elon-gated explanation.
SEC will have a tough time holding his feet to the fire.
When someone is described as; visionary, ethereal, eccentric, that it is actually code for mental instability.
Wait,.. who are we talking about again?
;)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 14, 2018 - 09:02am PT
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Martha Stewart was visionary, ethereal, and even a little eccentric in the eyes of her fans yet the SEC had no qualms making an example of her. I also have no doubt she was a lot more pleasant to hang out with. She apparently was very generous with her time to some troubled women.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Aug 14, 2018 - 09:20am PT
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Martha Stewart did more than say something she knew would piss off people she didn't like.
She profited from inside info.
But I'm sure she redeemed herself making potholders in Danbury.
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couchmaster
climber
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Aug 14, 2018 - 06:01pm PT
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Martha Stewart did not go to jail for insider trading.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Aug 14, 2018 - 09:23pm PT
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I think tooth is worried about the cavity that is tesla.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 15, 2018 - 06:44am PT
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$320 is looking more likely than $420.
The shorts are looking smarter.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Aug 15, 2018 - 08:06am PT
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Toker Villain: When someone is described as; visionary, ethereal, eccentric, that it is actually code for mental instability.
Perhaps. Genius is often “way out there.” Why might that be? Typical understanding of reality is invariably traditional. The only way to create / innovate new things (views, products, methods) is to get off the beaten track. Most often that looks imprudent, a little crazy.
I’m not so sure it’s about mental instability. The effect of genius often means instability, but that refers to social and economic systems. Joseph Schumpeter (an Austrian economist in the 1880s) called it, “creative destruction.” Almost everyone in Silicon Valley wants to create new market spaces around their ideas (which could put them in the catbird’s seat).
Check out wiki on Schumpeter; it’s a good write-up and may inform you of some of the remarkable understanding he seemed to have had. Very prescient.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 15, 2018 - 10:16am PT
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The SEC, despite Tooth’s insider info, has already issued subpoenas.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Aug 15, 2018 - 10:28am PT
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I'm buying popcorn.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 15, 2018 - 12:17pm PT
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The only way to create / innovate new things (views, products, methods) is to get off the beaten track.
Ok. I keep hearing this about Musk. And I keep asking, on this forum and another one that I browse, what has Musk done (since perhaps Paypal) that is innovative. And I never get an answer besides some hand waving visionary thing.
He wasn't the first private space company. He wasn't the first all-electric car. He wasn't the first to use robots in manufacturing.
As far as I know, he was the first to bring an all-electric, sports car to market. Credit for that. Although given the amount of torque that electric motors can generate, that strikes me as fairly obvious.
And then he has a bunch of adolescent fantasies (that aren't original) about Martian colonies and hyper loops.
As far as I can tell, visionary is another name for a charismatic salesman that knows how to create a fanatical following with a chic brand.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 15, 2018 - 12:32pm PT
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As far as I know, he was the first to bring an all-electric, sports car to market.
Not even close. My friends Allan Cocconi and Dave Sivertsen of AC Propulsion built their tzero in 1997. It was primarily a test bed for the technology they sold to many of the big companies. While it only did 0-60 in 4 seconds you could also do a 95% charge in only an hour.
here’s a link to just a few of their patents:
https://patents.justia.com/assignee/ac-propulsion-inc
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 16, 2018 - 06:25pm PT
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Reuters:
Whistleblower accuses Tesla of spying on employees at Gigafactory: attorney
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - An employee fired from Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) Nevada battery factory filed a whistleblower complaint with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, accusing the company of spying on employees and failing to act after learning that a Mexican cartel may be dealing drugs inside the plant, his attorney said on Thursday.
A former member of Tesla’s internal investigations team, Karl Hansen, filed a tips, complaints and referrals form to the SEC about the Gigafactory on Aug. 9, Hansen’s attorney Stuart Meissner said in a news release. Whistleblowers can receive 10 percent to 30 percent of penalties the SEC collects.
Tesla said it took the allegations that Hansen brought to the electric car maker seriously and investigated.
“Some of his claims are outright false. Others could not be corroborated,” Tesla said in the statement.
The SEC declined comment.
The complaint sent to the SEC comes amid intense focus on the company and Chief Executive Elon Musk, whose tweets about taking the company private last week set off a scramble to determine whether he violated securities law in stating that funding for the deal was “secured.”
Hansen alleged that Tesla, at the direction of Musk, installed surveillance equipment at the Gigafactory outside Reno, Nevada to eavesdrop on the personal cellphones of employees while at work, according to Meissner.
Hansen also claims that Tesla did not disclose to investors that thieves stole $37 million in copper and other raw materials during the first half of 2018, according to his attorney.
Hansen alleges Tesla failed to disclose that it received written notice from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration about a Tesla employee possibly engaged in selling cocaine and crystal methamphetamine from the Nevada factory on behalf of a Mexican drug cartel, according to Meissner who did not release the whistleblower filing he said his client made to the SEC.
Reuters could not reach Hansen for comment.
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Hope y’all got a gud store of popcorn!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 16, 2018 - 10:18pm PT
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“Mr. Hansen’s allegations were taken very seriously when he brought them forward. Some of his claims are outright false. Others could not be corroborated, so we suggested additional investigative steps to try and validate the information he had received second-hand from a single anonymous source. Because we wanted to be sure we got this right, we made numerous attempts to engage further with Mr. Hansen to understand more about what he was claiming and the work that he did in reaching his conclusions. He rejected each of those attempts, and to date has refused to speak with the company further. It seems strange that Mr. Hansen would claim that he is concerned about something happening within the company, but then refuse to engage with the company to discuss the information that he believes he has.”
From Tesla
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 17, 2018 - 06:16am PT
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reutets:
Tesla's Model 3 margins could be dented by costly powertrain: UBS
(Reuters) - Electric carmaker Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) premium Model 3 sedan will not produce better profit margins than a conventional BMW (BMWG.DE) and the company could actually lose $6,000 on every base model due to higher costs for the powertrain, according to an analyst at UBS.
Tesla’s shares were down about 3 percent at $325 in premarket trade on Friday.
The company is banking on its Model 3 to ensure future profitability. The base model is $35,000, but car buyers can upgrade to a $49,000 version, which has a longer range battery and high end trim.
UBS said the powertrain - a component crucial to Model 3's architecture, cost $950 higher than a previous forecast, but still better compared to General Motors Co's (GM.N) Chevy Bolt.
“While Tesla’s powertrain was better than peers in terms of cost per kWh and performance, their lead was not as large as we would have expected,” analyst Colin Langan said in a research note titled “Is Tesla Revolutionary or Evolutionary?”
Langan added that the cell cost at $148/kWh is well above Tesla’s guidance of below $100/kWh ending 2018.
He said the powertrain modules are in-house designed and built by Tesla, which is enabling it to move earlier with new technologies.
The Model 3 UBS Evidence Lab disassembled was $49,000, which included the 75 kWh battery and the high end trim. The model is expected to have a factory variable margin of about 29 percent and a gross margin of about 18 percent.
According to the note, Tesla’s gross margin comes in at 18 percent for a high-end Model 3, while the BMW 330i records 21 percent. The powertrain for Tesla’s Model 3 costs $17,827, more than double BMW spends on the component.
“With these economics, we expect the $35k base Model 3 to lose about $6k/car,” Langan said.
On Thursday, Evercore analysts said Tesla is on its way to make 8,000 Model 3 cars per week even as it burns more cash, following their visit to the electric carmaker’s California facility.
Musk, who shocked markets last week after tweeting a proposal to take the company private, gave a wide-ranging and emotional interview to the New York Times on Thursday on the company’s troubles and the personal burdens he has suffered running the company.
Reporting by Nivedita Balu in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernard Orr
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So now he’s pulled out the Sympathy Card?
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Aug 17, 2018 - 08:05am PT
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Musk, who shocked markets last week after tweeting a proposal to take the company private, gave a wide-ranging and emotional interview to the New York Times on Thursday on the company’s troubles and the personal burdens he has suffered running the company.
lol
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 17, 2018 - 08:20am PT
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TSLA DOWN 7.8% at $309
Dem short doods are lookin’ pretty happy, and prescient.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 17, 2018 - 12:41pm PT
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How’s that popcorn holding out?
TSLA down 9.35% to $304!
Put a smiley face on that, Tooth!
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 17, 2018 - 12:57pm PT
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what has Musk done that is innovative?
Yea, if only NASA had ever had the vision to make a reusable rocket!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 17, 2018 - 03:09pm PT
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Not to get anyone riled up but if you post a stock price and tauntingly call me out like a preschooler in the schoolyard , man up and quote what I said about it upthread so everyone can laugh at your foolishness.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 17, 2018 - 03:38pm PT
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man up and quote what I said about it upthread.
If I had seen anything relevant or meaningful I would surely do so,
but at this point whatever you said will look better in the post mortem.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 17, 2018 - 03:42pm PT
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Quote what I said about stock price - unless it doesn’t help in painting the picture you want to of me, or of picking a fight...
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couchmaster
climber
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Aug 17, 2018 - 06:04pm PT
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We should stop with he anger, accusations and finger pointing. It is what it is.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 17, 2018 - 06:07pm PT
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I’m happy to have a civil discussion but I’m not a mind reader. If you have a point to make
then make it, like an adult, unless yer just channeling yer hero.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 17, 2018 - 06:19pm PT
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Oh please. You quote a stock price and ask me to comment on it. I already had. You were just being argumentative for the sake of it instead of following a cohesive conversation/thread. Since you are unable (or more likely, unwilling for the reasons I stated) to do so I said that I thought stock price was overvalued and that I owned none of it.
You argued that you need to be a mind reader to quote what I said about stock price. After what you just posted. 🤦♂️
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 17, 2018 - 08:33pm PT
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The shuttle? You forget how the shuttle got to orbit? Are you a maroon?
NASA developed a partially re-usable rocket.
Guess what? Space X developed a partially re-usable rocket. Space X is not re-using all of the pieces, only the first stage.
And I'm not comparing NASA's cost effectiveness against Space X. Musk has a good engineering team (and an absolutely out of this world marketing team).
Landing and re-using part of a rocket is nothing new.
It is an incremental/evolutionary change.
Not a visionary/revolutionary change.
The Space Shuttle was far more revolutionary than the Falcon 9.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 18, 2018 - 04:49am PT
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NASA developed a partially re-usable rocket.
Guess what? Space X developed a partially re-usable rocket.
Nasa developed a re-usable payload (Shuttle).
Guess what? Space X developed a re-usable rocket (Falcon). And continues to use a reusable payload (Dragon)
There, fixed that for you.
Also, there are two other parts sent up. Fairings and second stage, both of which have plans for recovery/reuse (Mr. Steven, etc)
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 18, 2018 - 10:10am PT
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Nasa developed a re-usable payload (Shuttle).
Guess what? Space X developed a re-usable rocket (Falcon). And continues to use a reusable payload (Dragon)
There, fixed that for you.
Sure, the solid rocket boosters on the sides of the shuttle provided the majority of the lift in the first minutes of flight.
But you do realize, don't you, that all the fuel in that giant external gas tank attached to the shuttle was burned by the space shuttle's 3 rockets on the way to orbit?
Also, there are two other parts sent up. Fairings and second stage, both of which have plans for recovery/reuse
Well, great. I'm glad they are pushing things along to hopefully reduce launch costs.
Again, I'm not arguing against his company's engineering skills.
I'm just in a losing battle pushing back on claims of visionary revolution.
NASA developed the technology to get a rocket vehicle in space and bring it back to the ground in a manner that it could then be used again.
I just don't see the visionary leap of faith required before one can start asking is it cost effective to bring other parts of the rocket back to the ground and re-use them. Kudos to him for having the engineering skills to be the first to bring back and reuse a first stage rocket.
It seems like an excellent example of incremental evolution.
Cheers
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Aug 18, 2018 - 10:25am PT
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So show me a controlled landing of a booster.
Yes, he is first to get a first stage rocket back to earth.
But as was already pointed out, NASA did a controlled vertically landing on the moon. Lower gravity and no atmosphere, sure. It was also almost 50 years ago.
The Mars skycrane was a similar engineering challenge to a vertical landing of booster.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Aug 18, 2018 - 10:53am PT
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The moon landings were faked. Just ask Werner.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 20, 2018 - 10:13am PT
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TSLA below $300 - Elon’s gonna have a stroke!
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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Aug 20, 2018 - 10:53pm PT
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SEC is looking at Elon now
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Aug 24, 2018 - 10:24am PT
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Far more importantly Kalashnikov is developing a line of clothes.
In the U.S. we scrap about 12 - 15 million cars a year - WTF are we going to do with millions of large heavy highly toxic dead batteries?
A real man wears Kalashnikov undies.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 24, 2018 - 05:11pm PT
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You really don’t know what happens to car batteries after the car is trashed? This isn’t news folks. ASSuming it goes in the landfill or whatever is just like those who add up the energy spent in gasoline per year for transport and then directly transfer that to electric energy they ASSume must be needed to transport electric vehicles. FYI, they are 80% + more efficient, no heat or noise. So they use 1/16th the energy. So you don’t have to make as much electrical energy as is used burning gasoline. That’s not counting the extraction, refining or transport costs of gas.
On the other hand, used battery packs are used for energy grid storage among other things with lower demand uses. Or the modules can be reused. Or the cells. Or they can be recycled. Too much value to throw them out like rusty motors.
Plus, longevity of electric cars is surpassing ice. Check out the vehicle logs of Tesloop to see what happens at 4-500,000 mi plus.
FYI, not all americans are so ignorant about this subject and I’m surprised at climbers lately. Usually the ones I hang out with in the mountains are fairly well educated and care about our environment. I feel as if Trump himself keeps tweeting up here from some of these comments!😂
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 24, 2018 - 08:29pm PT
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Nothing Musk has done that I couldn’t have done with a new coal mine and centralized power for the country - Trump
Just because he is your current leader doesn’t mean you have to imitate his bad qualities. He won’t give you a medal if that’s what you are after.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Aug 24, 2018 - 10:08pm PT
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Not as easy as you think.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 25, 2018 - 05:46am PT
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Not easy but already doing it and making it into useful non polluting product. What about nuclear waste. Doing anything with that? What about coal and natural gas and fuel emissions. Doing anything useful and clean with that? NO. All the current byproducts are harming the environment and you are against the one that actually works because it’s hard? What a lazy outlook.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 25, 2018 - 05:49am PT
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Staying Public
Elon Musk August 24, 2018
Earlier this month, I announced that I was considering taking Tesla private. As part of the process, it was important to understand whether our current investors believed this would be a good strategic move and whether they would want to participate in a private Tesla.
Our investors are extremely important to me. Almost all have stuck with us from the time we went public in 2010 when we had no cars in production and only a vision of what we wanted to be. They believe strongly in our mission to advance sustainable energy and care deeply about our success.
I worked with Silver Lake, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who have world-class expertise in these matters, to consider the many factors that would come into play in taking Tesla private, and to process all the incoming interest that we received from investors to fund a go-private transaction. I also spent considerable time listening to current shareholders, large and small, to understand what they think would be in the best long-term interests of Tesla.
Based on all the discussions that have taken place over the last couple of weeks and a thorough consideration of what is best for the company, a few things are clear to me:
Given the feedback I’ve received, it’s apparent that most of Tesla’s existing shareholders believe we are better off as a public company. Additionally, a number of institutional shareholders have explained that they have internal compliance issues that limit how much they can invest in a private company. There is also no proven path for most retail investors to own shares if we were private. Although the majority of shareholders I spoke to said they would remain with Tesla if we went private, the sentiment, in a nutshell, was “please don’t do this.”
I knew the process of going private would be challenging, but it’s clear that it would be even more time-consuming and distracting than initially anticipated. This is a problem because we absolutely must stay focused on ramping Model 3 and becoming profitable. We will not achieve our mission of advancing sustainable energy unless we are also financially sustainable.
That said, my belief that there is more than enough funding to take Tesla private was reinforced during this process.
After considering all of these factors, I met with Tesla’s Board of Directors yesterday and let them know that I believe the better path is for Tesla to remain public. The Board indicated that they agree.
Moving forward, we will continue to focus on what matters most: building products that people love and that make a difference to the shared future of life on Earth. We’ve shown that we can make great sustainable energy products, and we now need to show that we can be sustainably profitable. With all the progress we’ve made on Model 3, we’re positioned to do this, and that’s what the team and I are going to be putting all of our efforts toward.
Thank you to all of our investors, customers and employees for the support you’ve given our company. I’m incredibly excited to continue leading Tesla as a public company. It is a privilege.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Aug 25, 2018 - 08:17am PT
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tooth,
There are a great many things wrong in the economic world we live in, in addition to waste and pollution.
Research has shown that people will pay an additional 15% premium for products and services that are produced by environmentally conscious companies—but not much more than that.
Sorry to say but in the last analysis everyone’s purchasing decisions are invariably a question of price, associated with a given level of quality (if they can measure it).
We all love visionaries, but they must make good on the sale of their visions to stakeholders.
Investors and buyers almost never understand a new technology nor have firm handles on new market segmentations. Everyone is betting on the come. Since no one really knows what will happen in the future, astute investors and buyers (imagine VCs’ investment decisions) will default to the perceived character of leaders and their leadership teams. When in doubt, buyers will go for proven brands, and investors will back “good management teams.”
Musk doesn’t always seem to understand these issues very well at times. The consistency and economic effects of his decisions (especially with regards to production, but now finance) have suggested to investors that he may not know what he’s doing. Furthermore, the ethics of his character has been tarnished. Musk has not been managing his and his company’s images adroitly.
As above, when people cannot readily judge the worth of new product ideas in new market spaces, they will make decisions based upon perceived legitimacy, credibility, and character. Musk and Tesla has problems in all of these areas.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 25, 2018 - 08:18am PT
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The true mark of an unbridled ego - making a fait accompli look a choice. Well played, Sir Elon!
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Aug 25, 2018 - 09:26am PT
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I'm not against electric cars. I am against the naive attitude that we are recycling batteries properly. We are not. I've been in the auto repair & or manufacturing business my entire life. I know a little of what I'm talking about.
In the early 70's I work through high school driving tow trucks for the 2nd largest OPG in the U.S. I never had to put on a hazardous waste suite to get a car off the freeway. That is going to be standard equipment with these new batteries.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 25, 2018 - 11:07am PT
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Batteries used to have cobalt in them. You don’t have to evolve if you die.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 25, 2018 - 11:45am PT
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A better investment than TSLA would be in batt recycling.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 25, 2018 - 02:27pm PT
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If you ignore the fact that the largest battery manufacturer in the world has designed them for reuse and has their own recycling in-house.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 25, 2018 - 02:32pm PT
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LA Times review today of the new Jag I Pace says it is every bit as good as the Model X, and then some. Audi, Porsche, Merc, and Bimmer all due to bring their e’s out in next few months. They all know how to build quality rides AND make money doing it.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Aug 25, 2018 - 02:53pm PT
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Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy
How well do you think they are doing? What does the iPace and Bolt plus all these other new cars coming out say about their ten year old mission statement?
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Aug 26, 2018 - 05:59pm PT
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This guy is fascinating! I wish him well.
A Karma ( a competing e car) ad appeared at the top of the page.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Aug 28, 2018 - 01:08pm PT
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Reuters:
With a debt load of about $10.5 billion and the possibility of an impending cash shortfall, Wall Street expects the luxury electric carmaker may need to raise funds before long.
Tesla Chief Executive Musk said late on Friday he would heed shareholder concerns and no longer pursue a $72 billion take-private deal, abandoning an idea that stunned investors and may draw regulatory scrutiny.
None of that has done anything to help it with a looming issue: cash.
Tesla, which has had just one quarter of positive free cash flow since the fourth quarter of 2013, has $1.3 billion in debt coming due in the next 12 months. Meanwhile it has just $1.3 billion of cash on hand after backing out $942 million of customer deposits on cars.
With analysts forecasting a slowed, but continued, cash burn in the second half of 2018, Tesla may need to borrow up to $2 billion by the end of the year to stay afloat.
In response to a request for comment, a Tesla representative referred to Musk’s statement on the company’s second-quarter earnings call when he said the company planned to pay its convertible debt with internally generated cash flow.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
“internally generated cash flow“? That sounds like ‘magic cash flow’.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Aug 28, 2018 - 01:33pm PT
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They pass around a basket at the next company meeting.
Done.
Sigh... sadly I've been at startups that have done that. Tough times.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Aug 29, 2018 - 07:55am PT
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What I don't get is it would seem some people are expecting Honda/Toyota reliability and support....
It would seem to be more akin to an exotic to me. It's going to break, and when it does it'll be very expensive and difficult, if not impossible in some cases.
Someone I work with was complaining about his new 3. Little stuff and strange electronic gremlins... I really think he expected an Accord (which has 30+ years of evolution behind it).
They are neat and if you've got the $$$ great, but know you'll be beta-testing an exotic.
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WBraun
climber
|
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Aug 29, 2018 - 08:08am PT
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The guy doing his own repairs on the Tesla is smart.
But doesn't have a good background on repairing automotive electrical connections.
He was using the worst garbage to splice some wires together which will definitely cause him some
troubleshooting headaches down the line when corrosion sets in on those horrible connectors he was using.
It's much better to solder those connections or use heat shrink crimp terminals.
Soldering is the best and most reliable in areas where exposure to the elements is, especially where moisture can enter ......
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
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Aug 29, 2018 - 11:10am PT
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What I don't get is it would seem some people are expecting Honda/Toyota reliability and support....
It would seem to be more akin to an exotic to me. It's going to break, and when it does it'll be very expensive and difficult, if not impossible in some cases...
They are neat and if you've got the $$$ great, but know you'll be beta-testing an exotic.
Not being reliable was doable for a luxury sports car. But a lot of people have pointed out that customer expectations in the $35,000 to $50,000 range are a lot different.
Both the reliability in the first place and, when something does go wrong on a newish car, that you can take it into to the dealer and have it promptly fixed.
We will see how model 3 reliability intersects with Tesla's customer's expectations.
Maybe the cult of Elon Musk will carry them through. But I'm not betting on that.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Mercedes shows off its new electrics and Tesla tanks - down just shy of 5% today to 289.
Right about 10% for the last 5 days.
The shorts are breathless with anticipation. Not a peep from Elon in like a week.
Has his matron muzzled him?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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So that explains why Kanuckian Immigration gives me such a hard time!
I guess I need to stop pretending that I like it?
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Tooth,
Er, . . . where is the “About Us” at that website (insideevs.com)? Who’s talking?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Irrelevant bro. Those are simply numbers. Those numbers are as reported by each car mfg company. Any other source that reports numbers as reported by the mfg has the same. This aggregator has a pleasant layout. No alternative facts as you Americans salivate over.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
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You're not answering the question, tooth.
Who is responsible for the website? Who made it?
It's a valid research (hermeneutics) question. Am I supposed to check every data point? To what extent can I rely upon the people / person who gathers the data?
Most of us don't have a great deal of trust for websites that don't identify themselves.
I've made this complaint to you in an earlier post upthread. You seem to have a tendency to find websites that don't identify themselves, or you present data without sources.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
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BTW, tooth,
I used to teach at your best business school there (Ivey--UWO). Canadians have a tendency to call foul quickly when international competitors get the better of them, and they have a identifiable tendency to call its government for help when competition gets tough.
You're nice people, but competitively you're soft in international competitive environments. Sorry.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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And despite my business and statistics degrees/education from the US, which teach that you need to verify info regardless of the source, don’t trust anything. Remember that to be a dentist you have to take years of science degrees, learn how to read research, do research yourself and that includes statistics, and after years of that you don’t care about reputation or who the person is. The only thing that matters is the numbers or outcome. OTOH, you resort to generalized character attacks instead of admitting that the numbers are verifyibly true. Not a smart argument there kiddo!
I love how you didn’t like or want to verify the numbers so you attacked the character of Canadians! 👏 bravo!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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The problem with hero worship or totally relying on what the people you approve tell you is that nobody is correct 100% of the time so when they are wrong, you are a fool.
Luckily for you, statistics are the easiest facts to verify so the last thing an educated person would attack with straw man or character attack arguments.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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So yer not going to answer Mike’s polite question?
They don’t come much more polite than him.
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Tesla's (TSLA.O) stock and bond prices dropped on Wednesday after Chief Executive Elon Musk renewed an attack on a British caver whom he had previously insulted on social media and a day after Mercedes unveiled a challenge to the electric car maker.
Elon is coming seriously unhinged. I fail to see his value to TSLA.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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His polite question is a veiled passive aggressive argument in an attempt to discredit the numbers. He can post the about us part himself, tell people why he doesn’t like them and tell people why he then doesn’t like the numbers all by himself if he wants - it would look silly but at least it would simplify things. It’s an excercise in futility as the message is independent of the messenger - numbers straight from manufacturers.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Well, those numbers are history. The bottom line numbers are what count and those are growing more ominous by the day. How can Tesla compete with Jaguar, Audi, and Mercedes? Those guys make money, Tesla bleeds cash. It ain’t a matter of ‘If’.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Numbers count. Show me anyone making money on electric cars. Chevy doesn’t on the Bolt. Heck, show me one non-compliance BEV sold by an American company. Also, driving the new jag beside a Tesla means the Tesla will go 50% further down the road before needing to recharge. And then they can. On the supercharger network. What can Jaguar do??And so then , how are they really a competitor yet? Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see all cars electric as I have one if each and the gasser never gets used now. But the hopes and dreams of people who talk about Tesla killers are just as far off as $tsla is or Musks tweets have been!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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LA Times review of I Pace a week or so ago said it was every bit as good as the Model X, plus the doors work.
Trust me, Merc, Audi, and Jag will make money on their cars.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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If you compare bottom line numbers between companies you will find that the profitability of the 3 is close to 30% when compared to the Bolt which is under 0%. However, if you add in the charging network to both, you add 0 to the Bolt and this is what you are usually spoon fed by media. Which means you are fooled into comparing apples to oranges. Easy to tell the frothy-at-the-mouth haters/lovers from the thinkers on that point alone.
I trust you Reilly. They will make money. I don’t trust anyone telling me how good a car is until I own/drive it though. How about you?
What car reviewer knows my needs of living in northern BC hundreds of miles from a supercharger and would have told me that he X tows better than my truck? I just looked at numbers and found out that they don’t lie and surprisingly it was better than advertised, keeps getting even better and has none of the scary things that the FUD-mongers like to print for click bait.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
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Numbers count. Show me anyone making money on electric cars.
Well if making electric cars is going to be a long term losing game before finally turning profitable (like Amazon was), then I would bet on the deep pocket books of the German firms before I would on the whims of the Saudi crown prince.
On the other hand, I actually would be happy for Musk to prove me wrong.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
The Ocean
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Will be on Joe Rogan podcast at 9:30 pm pacific..tonight
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
|
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RRad,
Thanks. You’re better than I.
Tooth,
It’s not an argument nor a character attack. I loved my students, and they were as smart as I have ever taught anywhere. Thirty-five percent of them went to big-league consulting or to investment banking making more money out of the graduate program than I was as a professor. With that said, Canadians in those days seemed to be more interested in protecting certain industries and jobs. It was their government’s choice, and that attitude had a tendency to seep into my students’ way of thinking (which I opposed). I remember, for example, that rock and roll radio stations had to play a certain percentage of Canadian artists by law (which meant we heard a lot of Brian Adams and Joni Mitchell in those days). Other than comedians, I do not remember any industry that was considered best of class internationally in Canada. My Canadian colleagues teaching at UWO would laugh about it.
If you have a business degree, then you might have heard to M. Porter, who’s argued that the best companies are those that don’t shy away from competition, and often seek out the most competitive markets they can. If they succeed there, they’ll generally succeed anywhere. It’s sort of like climbing.
If you like numbers (as you say), then the question next is what kind of numbers do you like? Units sold? Percentage of market share? Gross margins? Profitability (at what level of the P&L)? Not any statistic will do.
To be competitive in the long run, one must (imo) pay close attention to investors and profitability. Aggressive sales goals are oriented to the need for scale in Tesla’s case: he must get fixed unit costs down, and he will do so only through volume. That means that the volume objective for the Model 3 serves the scale objective. Through higher levels of volume and a resulting lower unit costs, one hopes that Tesla may learn what Toyota knows about making automobiles. In the old days, when all auto manufacturers believed that scale needed to be about 250,000 units to reach breakeven and profitability, Toyota figured out how to do it at 90,000 units. That’s the kind of production capabilities Tesla needs to compete.
Musk says he wants Tesla to be a world class player in the industry. He’ll need to compete with Ford, GM, Toyota, Nissan, and VW at their level to do that. Short term objectives (model sales goals) are important because they signal to investors that he knows what he’s doing. Make no doubt about it, he needs investors. His short-term model objectives are battles he needs to win, but they are not the long game (the war).
I appreciate your passion for the idea of an electric car. Great. Musk on the other hand, has his hands full leading three companies whose missions are particularly grand. Many of the comments here in this thread are not disputing the value of an electric automobile for buyers but rather what might be the hubris of a leader. Everyone wants Musk to succeed, but there is plenty of room for criticism. It’s an open debate.
Be well.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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We will have to watch tomorrow and see.
I doubt TSLA’s 7% drop today is due to seatbelts. Their CAO’s departure after only a month on the job is far more ominous, n’est ce pas?
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
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The critics of Musk are just as much part of the cult of Musk's personality as are his fans, of course. We're all just humans being human.
Sure, to some extent. Although I try to keep in mind that Musk and Tesla are not identical things. Even if Musk might think that.
Musk is also CEO of Space X. It is apparently profitable, and it sounds like Musk is pretty hands-off as far as typical CEOs go (and how would he have time to be hands on, anyway?). He did a good job of hiring people that know what they are doing and letting them do it.
Maybe he should try that with Tesla.
If your CEO is spending 12 hours a day on the factory floor dealing with specific production line issues in order to reach some production target, calling that a red flag would be a mild understatement.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
|
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Watch that whole interview with Rogan... Very interesting guy. He reminds me of another 200+ IQ friend I grew up with through high school. Very similar odd speech patterns. I'm not sure if Musk is as bright as that but he clearly is an intelligent person.
Seems honest and likeable enough, not the nutcase some articles make him out to be. I hope he finds peace for himself. My friend ended up as a skiing instructor after making a small fortune creating some esoteric mathematic engines used by those automated trading computers in the Wall Street casino. I would wager there are a lot of homeless geniuses.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
|
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Mercurial as usual.
The toke was probably as ill advised as the tweet.
But I like the guy.
However, weed mixed with tobacco is a waste of good weed.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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fear, there used to be a homeless guy well known to the San Diego popo. He didn’t cause any trouble they just had to roust him out from his various lairs every 3 months. His bank would call the popo and ask if they could remind him he had to come in and sign his software royalty checks. He would withdraw a modest sum and treat his homies and the millions just kept growing! You can’t make that shiz up! I haven’t heard about him in years, maybe he bought a place in La Jolla.
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Aeriq
Social climber
Location: It's a MisterE
|
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RonO no likey da spliffs, Mon!
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Spider Savage
Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
|
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Must be trying to cool off his overheated stock and expectations.
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BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
|
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He has succeeded in lowering launch cost to low earth orbit, and the Falcon Heavy was a powerful technology demonstrator.
I watched a Falcon 9 launch in March while I was flying in Florida. It was mind bending, but the only launch I have witnessed. It was a cargo haul to the ISS. The booster did not return to land, for reasons not known to me.
A rocket launch is loud!
Bezos has Blue Origin which makes rocket motors and is thinking about playing in the suborbital space tourism industry.
Boing has taken notice, and has built a human capsule for the ULA Delta rockets.
I wish that I could buy stock in SpaceX. They have huge goals, and so far have been reaching them.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
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must be trying to cool off his overheated stock and expectations.
I figured it out. Musk read this thread, saw my previous post, and said:
"Duh, if I tank the company stock, we can save billions when we buy the company out and take it private."
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Adolph Hitler could be quite charming too, if he judged you susceptible to charm.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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The reason I understand Musk is because I too enjoy ‘noblesse oblige’. Yer welcome.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
|
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The reason I understand Musk is because I also was going to start a successful space company, but rock climbing got in the way.
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HermitMaster
Social climber
my abode
|
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I also was going to start a successful space company, but rock climbing got in the way.
Rock climbing is the worst. It has ruined so many good people.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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xCon, you wanna borrow a bigger shovel?
(Not that yer not digging yerself a good hole already)
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 10, 2018 - 08:59am PT
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I have no idea what any of you are talking about, but there is a hummingbird about 4 feet from my head as I write this.
I do know that Mr. Musk is not as smart as he thinks he is.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
|
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Sep 13, 2018 - 03:39pm PT
|
He may be the next Edison, but he wants to be Tesla.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
|
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Sep 13, 2018 - 03:51pm PT
|
Neil DeGrasse Tyson says leave him be?
Hell, its just Neil DeGrasse not like its MIKE Tyson.
But wasn't Edison more of an invention broker than an actual inventor?
Didn't most of his patents come from his employees (including Tesla early on)?
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
|
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Sep 13, 2018 - 04:00pm PT
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I love and respect Neil, but if Mike told me to leave him alone I'd be more impressed.
And very worried.
He is right, leave the guy alone on his personal life.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
|
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Sep 13, 2018 - 05:14pm PT
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Boy, do I know that.
Talk to Mike Tyson not, me.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Sep 13, 2018 - 05:27pm PT
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I’d be a lot more inclined to cut him some slack if he showed any class concerning the British caver who he is obsessed about.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 13, 2018 - 05:53pm PT
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It's more than just the caver, he tends to not be a very nice person.
But up till now, he has been a good salesman.
In this world sadly salesmanship is what it's all about.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 10:04am PT
|
Idiots wrote that Washington post article. I have to hold my thumb down on my summon back button to make my car move. If I intend to drive it into something it will do as told. If it is about to hit something I have to lift my thumb from my phone or it will continue to follow my command.
Summon is in beta. It moves so slowly anyway that you really have to be a fool to do what this person did.
Only an idiot would fall for that misleading article.
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WBraun
climber
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 10:18am PT
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You st00pid lazy Americans and your dumb ass robots.
You're sooo lazy you want your car to drive itself.
You people are st00pid, lazy, spoiled and insane .....
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 10:24am PT
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I could literally intentionally drive my car off a cliff by holding the summon button down and Washington post would write something that all the panting little boys of this forum would go crazy enough about to make stock decisions over - because it is a Tesla. Ultimate ignorance.
What happened to critical thinking? You lap up whatever crap you are spoon-fed like infants and then regurgitate it here. It makes somebody look bad, anybody, and adds nothing to the conversation.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 11:35am PT
|
Not to mention the hypocrisy of sending a turoid to the moon. So we’re all sposed to buy
Teslas so some rich phuk can burn up the atmosphere? What kind of ‘critical thinking’
is that, Tooth?
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 12:27pm PT
|
Musk is the new Steve Jobs. Brilliant, showman, flawed, a little unhinged.
Like politics I don't see why so many come down on one side or the other. They either love him and don't see the flaws or hate him and don't give him credit.
You can't look at what this guy has accomplished and not be impressed. Dude's company built an orbital rocket booster that lands! Just that accomplishment is enough to make history.
But he overpromises, and says some kooky things, and plenty of other things you can read about.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 12:54pm PT
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Not to mention the hypocrisy of sending a turoid to the moon. So we’re all sposed to buy
Teslas so some rich phuk can burn up the atmosphere?
That'll never happen and he takes the 15 million down payment on the 'ticket' and burns it somewhere else.
Musk is an "idea guy". They never make good accountants or businessmen. His manic nature and the fact our economic markets are a flaming casino fueled with free money has thusly enabled his fantasies.
Musks still move the world forward a little bit. There will be innovation borne from his mania that will endure.
But I won't be caught holding the bag!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 01:05pm PT
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Ripley, if you aren’t good at it, best keep quiet rather than spray and remove all doubt. And when I address the 'panting little boys', why do you feel the need to respond?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 01:11pm PT
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Strong retort, braj, must be one I missed in Debate Club. BTW, it’s R e i l l y.
I know thatsa lotta letters.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 01:16pm PT
|
Really?
Arguing in favour of that article or to deflect that you were fooled by it?
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
|
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Sep 14, 2018 - 09:26pm PT
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Now, now boys lets be polite.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
|
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Sep 17, 2018 - 06:51pm PT
|
Some people that lose a lawsuit appeal or fight or resist or move to another state where the winner couldn't afford to travel to in order to collect.
Others are pussy, badge kissers who pay up but then whine like victims for decades.
I think Musk is a fighter (but he could use a delay tape and team of editors. lol)
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ecdh
climber
the east
|
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Sep 17, 2018 - 07:23pm PT
|
musk needs to stick to his cars and vanity projects and leave pro cave diving rescue to the experts. insulting one of the few guys who had a handle on that scenario because they didnt want his favorite toy just shows musk up as a whiny little bitch.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
|
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Sep 17, 2018 - 07:55pm PT
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Like 75 grand + legal fees is going to bother Mr. Musk.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
|
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Sep 17, 2018 - 07:56pm PT
|
I'm interested in the outcome of both the lawsuit in CA and the one being filed in England. I wonder what the justice systems will determine. Vern was offered pro bono legal services, I wonder what took him so long.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
|
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Sep 17, 2018 - 08:15pm PT
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No one with a brain in their head wants to be involved in a lawsuit.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
|
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Sep 18, 2018 - 09:08am PT
|
The hypocrisy of this hugely polluting turoid space flight while ostensibly saving us from ourselves with electric cars is beyond ironic.
Also ironic that Elon’s erstwhile Saudi Saviors have turned on him and invested in a rival.
Stay tuned for tomorrow’s edition of “As The Musk Turns”!
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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Sep 18, 2018 - 10:31am PT
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It's interesting that Musk generates such animosity. Jealousy?
I watched most of the video above. First time I've listened to him speak at length. Musk definitely fits the profile of Autism Spectrum Disorder in many ways (strange behaviors, unusual technical ability, social awkwardness).
It may all be a big act but I take him at his word (with a grain of salt) until proven otherwise. Really interesting how SpaceX would have gone out of business if the 4th attempt at their small orbital rocket failed. I think he really does want to make humanity a multi-planet species in case a natural or man made disaster renders the Earth unlivable. That may be a pipe dream (in the near future anyway) but that's a pretty noble goal to potentially save humanity (or at least to try to inspire people to see it's possible and do that in the future). I didn't know he was so forthright, he said he never guaranteed dates, he gives kind of best case scenario dates but if things go wrong those dates get pushed back and that's to be expected. He was also really honest about the dangers and potential for failure in this project. Not many CEOs are that candid.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Sep 18, 2018 - 12:20pm PT
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"Blunt talking and blunt smoking" LOL
Yeah, whole lotta haters,..
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ecdh
climber
the east
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Sep 18, 2018 - 03:58pm PT
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i had a peripheral interest in musk 5 years ago when he emerged in the popular press. not really different, just new to me. theres been a long line of white-knight techno saviours since the industrial revolution, who will save us all from ourselves - but its all been bullsh#t. the threats to life on planet earth and beyond wont be resolved by the ultra rich investing in techno-masturbation, weve already registered that.
maybe he is a do-gooder with great intentions and a genius perspective, but hes applying it all to the 1% whilst the 75% of the problem thats below the waterline - wont balance it out.
yes theres an argument that enlightening the 1% who run the majority of the planets resources has huge effect, but its unlikely to be by sending them on holidays.
we dont have the time to wait 30 years for space flight to trickle down to the common man the way jet flight did.
musk is an example of distraction by fantasy, like jobs and hughes before him. hard to other than cynical about him, especially as he shows himself to be a wanker as well.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Sep 20, 2018 - 03:29pm PT
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Tesla has been trying to get a track car good enough to compete and not overheat (or start on fire). The model S still isn’t there yet apparently, although the model 3 is showing signs of possibility.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Sep 26, 2018 - 11:01am PT
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So today Der Wunderkind was whining that Tesla’s delivery problems are due to a lack of car
carrier trailers! Seriously? I don’t hear GM, Ford, Toyota, or Nissan whining about that and
they need, what, 50 times as many? IT’S A CONSPIRACY I TELL YA!
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 26, 2018 - 12:56pm PT
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Welcome to the car biz. did the big boys lease all the car carriers? Bad management - poor planning? I still would not short Tesla yet.
With all his problems he is the one & only one pushing the electric car along. He's making Audi & everyone else step up.
In fifty years how many of these things will be laying around in fields and or crashed and left behind someone's house, everywhere cars & trucks are left now. Highly toxic & leaking.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Sep 26, 2018 - 07:12pm PT
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Frumy: Welcome to the car biz. did the big boys lease all the car carriers?
Hmmmm. Maybe, but I might doubt it.
It may not be a tradable commodity on an open exchange, but if supply and demand did not match regularly, then the industry would expand or contract structurally. Normally you'd see quick entrepreneurs find those open spaces and fill them.
If this sort of problem would happen often and in a costly way for auto producers, they'd take the function on in-house (vertical integration). (How much value are these auto carriers appropriating?)
Market economies are usually pretty good at finding pockets of profitability and competing them down to the cost of capital. That is, down to the level of minimal profitability. Entrepreneurs can be like wolves, searching for prey.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 26, 2018 - 08:44pm PT
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I'm not sure what to say.
How do you think cars get from OEM's to dealers.
Do you think its the same day in day out?
Do you think maybe the OEM's contract out a huge portion If not all their rail & truck transportation?
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mcreel
climber
Barcelona
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Sep 26, 2018 - 11:03pm PT
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This guy is melting down faster than bitcoin.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Sep 27, 2018 - 08:35am PT
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Frumy: Do you think maybe the OEM's contract out a huge portion If not all their rail & truck transportation?
They might well. It depends upon whether it pays them to have others do it for them—IF outsourcing makes economic sense. If it doesn’t, they’ll find a way to do it themselves. They could establish strategic alliances (where both partners sink or swim together), joint ventures (creating other organizations together), or they could even fund new competitors who could serve them (like IKEA did in Eastern Europe long ago with manufacturers who had excess capacity or as Intel venture capital did with some of its more technologically advanced suppliers).
If a partner upstream or downstream is appropriating too much profit from an industry consistently, the industry will do something about it. In the airline industry, wildly fluctuating fuel prices became managed (lower risk) with futures and options contracts on the open exchange.
Other than the trailers (which I doubt are all that costly compared to the tractors and labor), I don’t see highly specialized assets that would enable an industry (automobile transportation-delivery) to establish consistent defensible market positions and power. It’s likely a fragmented industry with no large dominating players. (Oligopolies are sure signs of market power.) All fragmented industries show minimal profitability equal to their risk factors; and they tend to be rather competitive.
Industries establish market power (and super-normal profitability) because they have highly specialized assets or skills that are difficult to build and imitate. Highly specialized assets *must be built or protected* rather than bought on the open market. Trucking wouldn’t seem to satisfy those qualifications (from my reckoning). What would be the specialized assets (knowledge or tangible or intangible assets) or specialized skill sets?
Rail, for example, has highly specialized assets (rolling stock and rail networks), but the substitutes for rail are increasing (commercial trucking, air, digital delivery), and that has tended to depress the industry's profitability. Rail is competitive (look at pricing), and the industry has eked-out some success because it is a regulated duopoly, and the competitors have invested considerably in efficient scheduling and operations (specialization of assets).
Most people of my background believe that all sustainable superior competition comes from unique and highly harmonized sets of core competencies that create best-of-class performance. Industries that experience erratic fluctuations in demand and profitability are usually commodity-based industries. Hardly any of them are territories in to mine sustainable superior profit.
At the end of the day, contemporary economists will argue that over time, every industry’s profitability will decline to zero profitability (equal to its cost of capital). The cost of capital for an industry turns on assessments of financial and political risk. Where there is little risk, the cost of capital will be small. Where there is a lot of risk (think high tech, for example or an industry in a 3rd-world country with expropriation tendencies), the cost of capital will be high.
There is no long-term future in any industry where there are zero profits (equal simply to the cost of capital in that industry).
(I apologize if this has been academic.)
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 27, 2018 - 08:36am PT
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No, they may not need to they DO.
OMG.
Stop with what should happen & start with what is happening.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Sep 27, 2018 - 08:42am PT
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Then it's unlikely that all the capacity has been appropriated by "the big boys," as you put it. At leas, I would say that the event would be extraordinary and will right itself in the next cycle structurally.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Sep 27, 2018 - 08:44am PT
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Perhaps you could point me to the data that supports your claim?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Sep 27, 2018 - 08:50am PT
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I think that data comes from the Robespierre Center For Entrepreneurship.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Sep 27, 2018 - 11:32am PT
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In fifty years how many of these things will be laying around in fields and or crashed and left behind someone's house, everywhere cars & trucks are left now. Highly toxic & leaking.
The only thing that would be highly toxic and leaking, I would imagine, are the batteries.
I'm hopeful that it will be more economic to recycle batteries than to make them from scratch. So unless a better battery technology comes along, certainly possible, the hulks laying around everywhere won't have any batteries in them.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Sep 27, 2018 - 12:39pm PT
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One crucial difference - copper isn’t highly toxic, let alone highly combustible.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 27, 2018 - 08:47pm PT
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$14,000 a ton for copper? I don't think I ever got more than about $8,000.
That's a damn good price. I retired from the auto industry a long time ago 2005. At that time I was producing about 4-5 tons of cast Alu., about 15 -20 tons of grade 1 Iron, & a few 100 lbs. of copper & brass. per month.
The difference is none of this is toxic & it's easy to get at.
If you aren't willing to look at problems straight on you just keep making them.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Sep 28, 2018 - 08:47am PT
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Hi, Reilly,
I couldn’t find the data at that site to support the claim that “the big boys leased all the car carriers.” Could you point me to it? All my writing was meant to argue why that was likely not the case. However, if someone has data, I’m very interested to see it, as it would contradict more than a few of my understandings about the industry. (I taught many case studies on it.)
BTW, Tesla intended to bring sales in-house (ala, the dealerships). Perhaps that, too, was not such a great element in his revolutionary model of how to build and sell automobiles.
There are economic ideas whose time has NOT yet arrived. One can be too late *and* too early to market.
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john hansen
climber
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Sep 28, 2018 - 12:15pm PT
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Tesla down 45 points today. 14% and the days not done.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Sep 28, 2018 - 12:18pm PT
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TSLA went from 380 to today’s 263 in 7 weeks. It’s a conspiracy I tell ya!
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Sep 28, 2018 - 12:48pm PT
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Welcome to the car biz. did the big boys lease all the car carriers? Bad management - poor planning? I still would not short Tesla yet.
If you wait until they are bankrupt, that will be a wee bit too late.
Just sayin'.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Sep 28, 2018 - 03:58pm PT
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In two months the new car pipeline to the deals showrooms will slow up & there will be trucks to be had.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Sep 29, 2018 - 07:12am PT
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Somebody Anybody,
Hey, thanks. Good article. You’re a prince.
Be well.
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Ezra Ellis
Trad climber
North wet, and Da souf
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Sep 29, 2018 - 04:33pm PT
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[url="http://Check out this article from USA TODAY: SEC settles charges with Tesla's Elon Musk, will remain as CEO but relinquish chairman role https://usat.ly/2y1b3QC"]http://Check out this article from USA TODAY: SEC settles charges with Tesla's Elon Musk, will remain as CEO but relinquish chairman role https://usat.ly/2y1b3QC[/url]
Not sure how this will affect things
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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I wonder if Tesla’s board will make him hire a Twitter nanny.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Production/delivery numbers for some brands like BMW are now just rounding errors for Tesla in the BEV arena. One year after M3 started production. GF3 going in in China where they don’t dawdle in construction and I think we could be seeing double this number monthly by next year.
We got a foot and a half of snow by this morning. Oct 2. Started snowing Oct 1. This will stay all winter. My Tesla drove much better with summers on than my TOYOTA with winters. Oh, and I finished 58 CO 14ers last week! Nothing better than a road trip with no gas expense and climbing!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Tesla must defend lawsuit alleging abuse of foreign workers
(Reuters) - A federal judge has ruled that Tesla must defend itself at a trial over allegations it knew foreign workers at its California assembly plant were threatened with deportation if they reported an injury and worked long shifts that violated forced labor laws.
U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh, in San Jose, California, dismissed most of the seven claims against Tesla on Monday, but allowed two claims to survive, paving the way for the plaintiffs to seek documents and witnesses to build their case.
The decision comes as Tesla is under pressure to turn a profit and days after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk stepped down as chairman to settle allegations by regulators that he misled investors.
Tesla has been plagued with safety complaints brought by workers, allegations that Tesla denies. Workers say that long hours and pressure to deliver vehicles quickly takes a toll, and some have pushed for a union.
Tesla said it investigated the allegations and broke ties with a subcontractor, ISM Vuzem, that it said did not live up to its expectations. “We’ve also since improved our supplier contracts and policies to better stop bad behavior,” it said in a statement.
According to the lawsuit, Gregor Lesnik of Slovenia came to the United States on a B-1 visa and worked 250 hours per month for less than $950, well below minimum wage. It also alleges that foreign workers were threatened with deportation or reduced pay if they reported injuries or became ill.
The 2016 lawsuit by Lesnik and Stjepan Papes of Croatia seeks class action status on behalf of foreigners with B-1 visas working at construction sites at U.S. auto plants.
Tesla was one of several automakers named as defendants, but the only one that was not dismissed from the case because plaintiffs only alleged to have suffered threats of deportation at Tesla’s plant in Fremont, California.
Koh denied a motion to dismiss for two Tesla subcontractors, Eisenmann Corp and ISM Vuzem because they operated at the same plant.
Eisenmann and Vuzem did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Koh said her ruling was based on a “generous reading of the at times incomprehensible” lawsuit, but also said the allegations against Tesla and Eisenmann were “uncharacteristically specific.”
Koh rejected arguments that Tesla and Eisenmann were not liable because the alleged abuses were committed by Vuzem. Koh said a party that benefits financially from another’s abuses also bears liability.
The claims she dismissed alleged violations of the False Claims Act, Fair Labor Standards Act and the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO.
Reporting by Tom Hals in Wilmington, Delaware; Editing by Leslie Adler
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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20,797 vs 22,250
Toyota Corolla vs Model 3
So what you are saying above is that Tesla and GM found out something was happening with a sub contractor, fired them, and is now getting sued over what they already corrected? Hmmm... pretty strong FUD there bud!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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toothy, don’t shoot the messenger, m’kay? Take it up with da judge!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I have nothing towards or against Elon. But I love the product. And I own no stock.
You guys, on the other hand, are talking out of inexperience and parroting media. Respect😂
What it equates to is that you read a review in the newspaper about Honnolds new movie which was written by someone who didn’t watch the movie. Now you are denigrating those who watched The movie and have a different opinion than the one you adopted from the article/review you read.
No matter that it has great numbers.
How does that make you feel? I can tell you how it makes you look when you talk about Tesla’s!! You aren’t at the level of messenger. Just muttering head.
I’m sure you said Amazon would never compete with large giants like WalMart etc. I find that people who lack vision tend to try and tear down those who do. Human nature?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Q3 2018 Vehicle Safety Report
The Tesla Team
October 4, 2018
At Tesla, the safety of our customers is our top priority, which is why it’s critical that we design and build the safest cars in the world. Not only do we conduct extensive in-house testing and simulation to ensure our vehicles achieve top safety performance before they ever reach the road, we are also uniquely positioned to leverage the hundreds of thousands of miles of real-world data our fleet collects every month to continuously improve our vehicles and develop a more complete picture of safety over time.
Because every Tesla is connected, in most instances we are able to learn immediately when a Tesla vehicle has been involved in a crash. Additionally, our non-traditional sales model allows us to have a direct relationship with our customers for the lifecycle of ownership, providing an avenue for us to supplement our records and gain even more insight as needed. In contrast, automakers whose cars aren’t connected and who utilize networks of third-party franchised dealers may never know when a vehicle is involved in an accident. Through traditional channels, it can take months or even years for lawsuits or claims to be filed that provide automakers with insight into an accident that allows them to draw meaningful conclusions and improve safety.
Earlier this year, when we made the decision to begin publishing our safety data on a regular basis, we designed and introduced a completely new telemetry stream for our vehicles to facilitate these reports. This new data stream allows us to gather the most critical fleet-wide statistics from the exact moment a crash-related event is detected by our system. While there are still some unique cases in which crash data may not be available to us through this channel, we believe this system currently provides the best framework for safety reporting on an ongoing basis.
Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:
Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.
For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).
Moving forward, we will publicly release these accident figures on a quarterly basis.
Given the degree to which accidents can vary in severity and circumstance, we’ve started an additional initiative to create a more complete picture of safety by gathering serious injury data from our customers following an accident. While we have long maintained the practice of calling our customers whenever our system detects a crash in order to see whether they need emergency assistance, we now also use these calls to understand if they sustained an injury in the crash, and if they have feedback on our current safety system. This will help us continue to improve our system and understand the rate of serious injuries over time.
We also encourage our customers to proactively contact Tesla Support if they are ever seriously injured in a Tesla vehicle, or if they have suggestions about improving safety features.
As we are working hard to make our cars the safest and most capable cars on the road in terms of passive safety, active safety, and automated driving, we must continue to encourage driver vigilance on the road – that is, by and large, the best way to prevent traffic accidents. Safety is at the core of everything we do and every decision we make, so we cannot stress this enough. We want our cars to not only lead the way to sustainable energy, but also make driving as safe as possible for everyone, and we are working as quickly as we can to achieve that. We look forward to sharing continued updates with our customers and community, and working together to make our vehicles as safe as possible.
“Just want to say that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work. And the name change is so on point!” Elon
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I love the terminology they use in the title. "gaming' the referral program.
If you didn't know anything about it the title alone would make you biased against them.
if you owned a Tesla, and, like me, got referral credits for each person who used me as a referral source when they bought theirs, this isn't even a story.
the youtube girl, LikeTesla has gotten a free MXP100D among other things, and the Norwegian asian guy, Bjorn Nyland, takes his X offroading and has so much credit from people who watch his channel that he uses it up to fix his car in the shop after he tries doing stupid things with it.
That's how Tesla does things. The Drive may not be able to wrap their minds around it because it isn't like every other car company (who pay THE DRIVE advertising money, cash), but Tesla spends its advertising money on referral credits for existing customers.
Lots of auto publications are upset at Tesla because they don't give them advertising money.
Lots of Tesla owners are happy with Tesla because their phone rings if their car gets rear ended, Tesla asking if they are OK. Also because they get to be part of 'advertising' and recognized for what they do, and also because the company, Tesla, follows up with them after they buy the product where most car companies have no personal contact with the majority of their owners - the dealers' service centre does.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Tooth: I love the product.
A product advantage does not equate to a competitive advantage.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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^^^ Exhibit A: The Tucker 48 - a technological wonder but a business failure.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Debbie Downer: zing!
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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You guys, on the other hand, are talking out of inexperience and parroting media. Respect😂
I’m sure you said Amazon would never compete with large giants like WalMart etc. I find that people who lack vision tend to try and tear down those who do. Human nature?
Tesla delivered around 100,000 in 2017.
Gm sold around 10 million vehicles in 2017.
Tesla's market value was above GMs.
Yea, that raises questions and gets the attention of short sellers even before you take into account the huge debt load that Tesla has and the challenges and growing pains of moving from a boutique sports car company with high margins to a mass produced car company with low margins.
I don't hate Musk but he has shown himself to be a d#@&%e. I still hope Tesla makes it but I think it is entirely appropriate to point out the cult-like following that Musk/Tesla has.
I remember the dot.com bubble and the quip that Amazon loses a little bit of money on each sale but makes up for it with volume.
My response was, at least Amazon had a cash flow and if they could get costs down a little bit you could imagine that they could make a profit. Which was more than you could say about the majority of the dot.com bubble companies.
If you knew nothing else except that a company was new, predicting it to go under is a smarter bet than expecting it to be worth more than GM. Most startups fail. For every Amazon/Google there are many thousands of startups that fail. Maybe Tesla will buck the trend.
Maybe.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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And I still think that this "visionary" thing is just another word for charismatic salesman.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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And I still think that this "visionary" thing is just another word for charismatic salesman.
I'd say that for Steve Jobs all the time. He was a fantastic salesman.
But Musk has a LOT of irons in the fire, from electric cars to rockets to theoretical tunnel boring applications. I would argue that Musk's creativity and technical breadth(even if it's shallow) far exceed anyone who is just a great salesman. He's also not realistic (people on Mars, trains in vacuum tubes underground), but we'd never progress as a species without unreasonable people.
Not to say that any of these irons will ultimately be profitable but I think that's a different story. Competition is a good thing, a great thing, and if Musk can pull off even one of these things without government cheese, then good for him, and good for us.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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There is a great divide in capitalism between technical success and business success. If we can’t allow any aspect of socialism into allowing technical progress then progress will be hampered in that country vs those who do. Because business success of Tesla , for example means that even though their product is better than GM’s, the pathways for growth in the marketplace of a new technology is not there. Norway, on the other hand, had 45% of new vehicle sales being fully electric with another 15% plug in hybrid. In an entirely capitalistic.
I find it odd that GM, which is government cheese to the tune of 11B, never gets half the flack that Tesla gets. That is enough to buy a quarter of Tesla outright. Enough to run the tax rebate system for every car company forever.
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
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Somebody go watch this LIVE and report back.
7:21 PM tonight!! First West Coast Landing!!
This is SpaceX’s first attempt at a land landing on the West Coast. LZ-4 is built on the former site of Space Launch Complex 4W, from which Titan rockets were previously launched. You can watch the live launch webcast below...
https://www.spacex.com/webcast
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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What about me, huh? I gotta buy my own damn Pellegrino?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Tesla Model 3 achieves lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA
https://electrek.co/2018/10/07/tesla-model-3-lowest-probability-of-injury-nhtsa/
“NHTSA tested Model 3 Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive as part of its New Car Assessment Program, a series of crash tests used to calculate the likelihood of serious bodily injury for front, side and rollover crashes. The agency’s data shows that vehicle occupants are less likely to get seriously hurt in these types of crashes when in a Model 3 than in any other car. NHTSA’s previous tests of Model S and Model X still hold the record for the second and third lowest probabilities of injury, making Tesla vehicles the best ever rated by NHTSA. We expect similar results for other Model 3 variants, including our dual-motor vehicles, when they are rated.”
In addition to its near 50/50 weight distribution, Model 3 was also designed with an extremely low polar moment of inertia, which means that its heaviest components are located closer to the car’s center of gravity. Even though Model 3 has no engine, its performance is similar to what’s described as a “mid-engine car” due to its centered battery pack (the heaviest component of the car) and the fact that Model 3’s rear motor is placed slightly in front of the rear axle rather than behind it. Not only does this architecture add to the overall agility and handling of the car, it also improves the capability of stability control by minimizing rotational kinetic energy.”
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Adendum to the report:
UNLESS THEY BURN TO DEATH.
I kid... I kid...
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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For those who don't know why he is kidding about fires....
Gas cars have 174,000 fires per year. One every three minutes. Not newsworthy.
55 fires per billion miles driven in a gas car.
5 fires per billion miles driven in a Tesla. (based on 9 billion miles driven by Teslas so far)
So gassers are 11X more likely to catch fire than an electric car with old battery tech. When the new battery packs come out, and the 11th year of battery tech gets out, it will be that much safer than the 110yr old ICE tech.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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So cars driving around with gallons of highly volatile gas only catch fire 11X more than a car with no gas.
I would have thought that it would be a little more like 11,000X more likely.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Anytime that much energy is stored in a small concealed space..... stuff is gonna' burn people to death from time to time.
Hydrogen/propane scares me more than batteries or liquid...
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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My bro’s neighbor brought his new Model S home yesterday. Today he couldn’t open the door because the window had frozen itself to the gasket and I guess the windows have to unfurl half an inch before the door will open. LOL
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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I hope he realized he's beta-testing a generation 1 exotic car.... and everything that goes with that.
I wouldn't buy a year 1 new model from Honda or Toyota either.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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The Model S is not a first-year production car I believe they went into production around 2012.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Боже мой! Which me poor brother lives at 9100’ in the Colorado Rockies!
He put ‘is snow tires on today seeing as how snow is forecast tomorrow.
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WBraun
climber
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Elon doesn't know marketing.
He should make the "Volkswagen" of electric cars that is very affordable to the masses.
Stripped down version with no st00pid bells and whistles.
Mass produced at $15K.
America will go ape sh!t and buy ........
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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We had a foot and a half of snow here Oct 1. There will be a few other things your friend of a friend will learn, but basically, the car heats itself and is warm, ready to go to work at -10C outside/21C inside here at 7am each morning. I selected 'learn my schedule'. I park outside so lots of snow and ice on the Tesla. It all slides off by the time the car heats up. Only a pane of glass on the roof.
Today I got a new update. Like getting an entirely new phone, not just a phone update. I can see all the cars all the way around me on the dashboard, 4 lanes wide. The cameras now are used for dashcams, Atari games showed up on the centre touchscreen. Many other things that I haven't had time to look at yet. Lanes and autopilot have had a huge upgrade.
I don't feel abandoned - or like my car is outdated a year later, it is fresh and fun and new today again!. But I do feel like there is no way I would buy any other car again unless the other companies really up their game and surpass the little crappy American car company on government cheese with a stupid CEO who doesn't know how to run a real car company and using dumb ideas like batteries that will never work... shouldn't be hard to make a better product than they do eh?
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 12, 2018 - 09:28am PT
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When your Tesla has this kind of mileage then you can tell me how bad the other car companies are.
Those are two of my trucks. I've owned them since new.
The Chevy truck spend the first six years of its life being overloaded & worked hard. It cost me $18,183.00 out the door. Over 260,000 mile & the drive train in all original.
The GMC was $32,742.00 OTD. It's been 200 miles north of the Arctic circle.
I think I've gotten my monies worth.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Oct 12, 2018 - 10:57am PT
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Similar story; I have an F 250 with 180,000 hard miles on it (ran me $17.5K), but now I have over 60 square meters of solar panels at my ranch, so when they make an electric SUV,....
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 12, 2018 - 07:25pm PT
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Check out the Bollenger B2 truck, B1 trucks.
And https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers
So back in July the Model S Tesla hit 400,000mi, 650,000km. You can see their entire service record and costs, .05 a mile vs their other cars,Lincoln town car and mercedes GLS at .25 a mile.
No reason a million miles on a vehicle won't become the new 240,000miles with electric vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/11/tesla-semi-clear-path-goal-1-million-mile-electric-powertrain/
Bollenger is also asking to use Tesla's charging network, which would be fine but most users (and the creators of the truck) are ranchers, so it will just be used for work, and will replace a generator for power use.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Oct 12, 2018 - 09:44pm PT
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How far will it go in Lo 4WD?
I bet not 1/4 as far as a Series II 52 HP Land Rover.
And that 1/4 is probably being generous.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 13, 2018 - 05:49am PT
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They are planning a 200 kWh battery. So with wind resistance in 4lo being 0, it should have a 600mi range on the flat street. What is the Land Rovers range? 100l gas tank at 22.5 l/100km is about a 250 mile range. It’s top speed was 67mph and 0-60 in almost 30 seconds. If you limit the electric motor to that performance you’ll be doing what is called hypermilling and double the range! No electric cars have a limit if under 120mph and accelerate slower than 7 seconds 0-60. Add ups and decrease range , downs, and regen range and it’s range will be a lot more than you need. The point is to have more power in the battery available to run tools around the ranch etc. Debbie downer is correct, you do loose power from a battery as waste, just while the car sits there. Mine has about .5% vampire drain per day. Or 182.50kW per year. at 8 cents per kW it costs me $14.60 CAD or $10.95 USD per year in wasted electricity. If that is a financial strain for you, even bus passes are out of your price range. It saves me $1000/mo in pump charges so I don’t mind.
And Jim, look up requirements for air bags. Off road rock crawling , I want them turned off. Driving around a toolbox/generator around the ranch, off. Over 7000 lbs, not required, or used in many busses or tractors etc.
Some guys still don't get how electric powertrains work. Betting that it gets a quarter of the range of an internal combustion engine shows that. While I finished climbing all the 14ers in CO this summer we went jeeping again. Crawled most trails and passes in the state, my buddy there is a fanatic. Once they make electric drivetrains for these things the game will change. My Model X crawls better than my 4Runner off road edition did in 4low and it's not even remotely designed to compete in that arena.
All the torque at any wheel speed, super low centre of gravity centred between the axles,
independent wheel drive control, no locking diffs needed since each wheel is driven independently by a motor.
Have you seen what the first generation Nikola UTV has done in terms of performance? Rock crawling and off roading, towing farm equipment... Anyone care to compare to other UTV's in it's class?
https://nikolamotor.com/nzt
100% waterproof. Doesn't need air to operate. Can drive deeper or even float across streams like a Tesla. No need for a snorkel air intake.
100% of torque available at any speed. No gears needed.
Lowest and best-placed centre of gravity.
Quickest acceleration.
3 hrs to charge(8 hrs with an EV ARC solar setup)
590 HP
722 ftlbs torque
3.5s 0-60
150-200 miles range
14.5" ground clearance
33" wheels with 20" travel
Hitch is rated to 3000lbs. Motors have no limit.
1400lbs payload and silent operation (besides suspension linkage and tire noise) and low thermal heat signature.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 13, 2018 - 09:38am PT
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This one has a range over 600 miles can recharge its tanks in 5 min. & has a 4200lb. payload. Oh, it can go well over 100 mph & it's my slowest truck.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 13, 2018 - 10:02am PT
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But can you operate it in your garage without dying or outside without polluting? How about a few hundred million of them? I lived in LA. You can’t tell me that it’s better for your health in any way!
There is no selling point or advantage to gas now and once the econnomics are there for BEVs there will be few who choose an ICE over a BEV. Economics are on track with at least five more years before pickups get much for options except for the B1-2.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 13, 2018 - 11:15am PT
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Dude, you are drunk on kool-aid.
The production of an electric car at this point is very pollution intense. & the scrapping of these vehicles is worse.
I'm not saying that the gas driven cars are great or even good. I'm SAYING electric cars aren't there yet.
And until we decide to deal with them from top to bottom they never will be.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 13, 2018 - 12:05pm PT
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Dude. Compare scrapping one as you say after it’s lifetime vs another. Compare the cost of operation in environmental and financial costs and production costs over the lifetime. Big picture and you don’t get it. I don’t blame you, you are armchair driving where we actually drive electric cars. But the info is out there if you want to look.
If BEV manufacturing cost in pollution is twice what ICE cost is, and you get four times the miles out of it, what is the big picture cost?
The grid can only get more clean. Solar can only get more efficient.
Oil exploration and extraction has stayed within 10% of environmental impact for 30 plus years here in the oil fields. Burning hydrocarbons hasn’t changed at all. Catalytic converters still come from the worst polluting factories ever.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Oct 13, 2018 - 12:19pm PT
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I really don’t think the true environmental production and re-cycling costs have been accurately or honestly calculated given those highly toxic batteries.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 13, 2018 - 12:51pm PT
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Good thing what you think and especially what you really think have no bearing on the reality of the situation at all then eh?
A few posts ago you didn’t even know the chemistry of what goes into the battery and thought that Colbalt would be used at GF1 with the 2170 cells etc.
Ignore the fact that gasoline is known to the state of California to cause birth defects and cancer and you sit there and stew in the vapours as you fill your tank. Keep calling the sealed batteries highly toxic as if you are trading to their use from organic vegetables or something!
Horrible Toxic Hillary, she enabled her husband to grab women by the pussy. (Meanwhile you are using a president who grabs women by the pussy). But your argument is implying that you are using something that is all butterflies and flowers. Very poorly thought out way to conduct your decision making.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 13, 2018 - 03:09pm PT
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Dude I hate Trump with a passion.
I was pissed when GM stop the EV1 project. It was a pretty good first generation, a great place to start from. I have worked on Honda Insights, I like new tech.
I know the salvage business.
"New boss same as the old boss".
You show me how they are going to produce & salvage 15 - 19 million of these a year just in the U.S. & I'll change my mind. Show me all the wrecking yards that are set up to deal with the dismantling of these units, smashed up or not.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 13, 2018 - 05:42pm PT
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Which comes first,the chicken or the egg?
What would come first, the wrecking yards and blue collar guys making $10/hr working at them - (doing what now, exactly? How can they afford to sit around and wait) or the gigafactories that Tesla is currently building to make the product that the wrecking yard will eventually make a living off of?
if I were an economics student, I would look at the fact that since Teslas are in one crash for every 3+ billion miles driven, vs half a billion miles driven for all other cars. I would look at the fact that electric drivetrains are lasting much longer than combustable drivetrains (an average of double so far, goal for quadruple). I would look at the fact that battery vehicles combust a seventh as often as internal combustion engine cars. I would look at the fact that only 2% of cars made this year are electric.
Then I would realize that the wrecking yard of the future will be a much smaller industry than today, and not to start investing too much too soon.
Just as it takes 100kWh of gasoline to drive a car 70km and the same amount of energy in a battery to drive my MX 475km, we aren't comparing apples to apples.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352152X17300968
I don't plan to dump my battery anywhere once it is no longer useful in my X. I'll use it at my house to store power from my solar panels during the day to be used by my freezer/laptop at night.
Others are buying up packs to use in municipal power storage, like peaker plants.
Others are recycling them, in select areas, mostly subsidized for research.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/08/reusing-ev-batteries-household-storage-australian-company-relectrify/
Apples to oranges. You don't keep your broken down engine from the car to store power in your home. You wouldn't even think of it. It is too loud for indoor use, to polluting, to power hungry and inefficient. Which is exactly why so many people have such a hard time envisioning a change in this arena. It doesn't fit their current paradigm.
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couchmaster
climber
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Oct 13, 2018 - 07:10pm PT
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Frumy, the evidence points to the fact that electric cars will be better in almost all ways. You are correct in what you said, they aren't "there" yet, but they are heading that way, and the world will be better when they are. Tesla is an overpriced stock. Big deal. As an aside, the man himself (Elon) tucked well over $10 million bucks inside his "Hip National Bank" for @ 8 months by collecting the $$$cratch and then delaying the flamethrowers shipment until September- Oct. : product is shipping.
Brilliance.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Oct 14, 2018 - 08:49am PT
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Looking at the only at the carbon footprint of the operations of different technologies presents only a partial analysis.
How electricity in a particular country is produced is an issue that needs consideration, as there are carbon-production issues there that are considerable.
Manufacturing a technology also has carbon production-issues, as does salvage at the end of life (as Frumy points out).
Last is the notion that people need new vehicles—and individual ones. Carbon production would probably be the lowest if people weren’t so oriented to increasing materialism; people could live with their older vehicle instead of buying a new ones, and they could fund and use public transportation systems more.
This situation reminds me of the carbon footprint impact of Fuji bottling and selling water and then shipping it all over the globe. What’s really being sold is the feeling of liberal or progressive righteousness.
I wonder if anyone has ever figured out the carbon footprint of ego attachment.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 14, 2018 - 09:52am PT
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All I can say is this is sadly funny.
New boss same as the old boss!
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Oct 15, 2018 - 05:32am PT
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Tax break, anyone?
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Oct 15, 2018 - 06:12am PT
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El conejo de Playboy has come of age, eh? Cool, xxxCon!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 16, 2018 - 04:31am PT
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Want To see a model3 drive unit gears with a million miles on them?
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 16, 2018 - 08:38am PT
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Those are transfer gears they better last at least 1 million miles.
And for those of you that think you know something of economics here is a copy of the discussion that went along with that story.
Russell- with reliability like that, who would want to own any other car besides a Tesla.
Illuminati- Maybe a father of thee that makes $35,000 a year.
RM- Actually a father of three that earns $200,000 per year...I can not justify the purchase of a Tesla... kids are expensive.
& I haven't even started on the true cost of manufacturing these cars much less the environmental damage being done at the front end of manufacturing.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Oct 16, 2018 - 09:52am PT
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Frumy: . . . kids are expensive.
Funny, Frumy.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Oct 17, 2018 - 05:38pm PT
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Love the quote, but size it down please.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 17, 2018 - 07:22pm PT
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If any shareholder gives money to Tesla and is surprised by any of these antics they are an idiot. Elon and his leadership and lack of skills and/or strengths are no secret. Expecting Tesla to fall in line and be a stock comparable to ViaRail or something is just ignorant.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 23, 2018 - 09:08pm PT
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"Citron is long Tesla as the Model 3 is a proven hit and many of the TSLA warning signs have proven not to be significant," said Left in a blog post Tuesday. "Plain and simple – Tesla is destroying the competition."
"TSLA is not just pulling customers from BMW and Mercedes but also from Toyota and Honda. Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry,
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Oct 23, 2018 - 09:11pm PT
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Time will tell
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 24, 2018 - 02:24am PT
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Oh they have been. Whether or not Tesla continues to do so and then on a much bigger scale is for the future to tell.
The best competition to the S was set to come out from audi - the eTron, or Turd in French. News is that they are delaying. Software needs a reboot and their battery suppliers want more money. There goes their price competition. Maybe securing your own supply chain or building your own battery modules and packs yourself like Tesla isn’t such a bad idea after all.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Oct 24, 2018 - 09:30pm PT
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$312MM profit this quarter. Six and a half billion in sales.
Construction has begun on the GF In China. Should be making things (250,000 cars) next year and half a million cars the year after. So in three years a million Tesla’s a year.
And my car got another update - I love the product.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Oct 31, 2018 - 09:58am PT
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live you dream
And tweet criminally while arrogantly dismissing the rule of law.
You can’t have it both ways.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Oct 31, 2018 - 11:14am PT
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^^^^^ from the article
“In other words, people who say it can’t be done should stop interrupting those who are doing it.”
Ditto!
I was told many times to stop dreaming, settle for less, stop swimming against the current, etc.
That what happens when you have a vision. People try to pull you down to their level. They will call you stupid, unrealistic, lunatic, arrogant.
Don’t listen to them, live you dream. When you are successful, they will come back. Let them, maybe they can learn something.
Moose
Absolutely. Any American that hates their job and dreams of becoming a self-made billionaire should immediately quit their job and create a start-up. Ignore the nattering nabobs of negativity. They are no more than a minor interruption to your success.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Probably a good idea... but it won't work. That'd be like trying to control Trump's twitter feed.
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Yury
Mountain climber
T.O.
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Nov 11, 2018 - 07:39am PT
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Do you expect better or worse Tesla financial results next quarter?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 11, 2018 - 12:18pm PT
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$2.7 Billion of TSLA’s debt is due in the next 12 months and the yields are still climbing.
Hard for the best accountants to write that sh!t off (especially with yields pushing 9%!) and with federal subsidies phasing out their competitive advantage is dwindling.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Nov 25, 2018 - 05:15pm PT
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Being bipolar doesn't look like fun.
Once his meds kick in he'll likely reschedule that out a few decades.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Nov 25, 2018 - 05:27pm PT
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He’s delusional if he thinks he’ll be beyond the reach of the SEC there.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Look out, Elon, here comes Audi's E-Tron GT, which will share a platform and 60% of parts with Porsche Taycan. Basically an A7, 590 HP, 0-60 in 3.5, 250 mi range, and can charge 80% in 20 minutes!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Look out, Elon, here comes Audi's E-Tron GT, which will share a platform and 60% of parts with Porsche Taycan. Basically an A7, 590 HP, 0-60 in 3.5, 250 mi range, and can charge 80% in 20 minutes!
So in other words - look out! AUDI plans to bring out a car that isn't as good as a Tesla was 4 years ago. I mean, that was the point of Tesla, but I would hope by now that there would be cars that are better than Tesla in some way. I can add just as many miles on my x as this A7 theoretically can in the same 20 min. What is the point of adding 80% of 65 in 20 min when you can add 85% of 100 in 25?
Elon is still looking out, as are the rest of us including Porsche. Not seeing much on the roads though. -10C with snow on the roads up here and I'm still getting sub 5s 0-60 on the X. It drives better in snow with summers than my Toyota/Subaru do with Hak R3's. Just got a software update, again, and the Rivan truck plans to have an off-road feature, turning right wheels forward, left wheels back, you can turn on a dime.
https://electrek.co/2018/12/01/tesla-astonishing-porsche/
What Tesla did is ‘truly astonishing’, says Porsche
As Porsche is trying to bring to market its first all-electric vehicle, they look admiringly at Tesla’s success, which they see as “astonishing” when it comes to volume and pricing.
Porsche’s North America Chief Executive Klaus Zellmer made the comment in an interview with the Los Angeles Times:
“If you look at what Tesla has done, if you look at their volume and look at their price level, it’s truly astonishing.
If you can do that with one brand and a sales network that is not comprised of dealers and a real sales organization, it’s even more astonishing.”
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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What Tesla did is ‘truly astonishing’, says Porsche
Machiavelli, or somebody, said something to the effect
‘be very worried when your foe praises you.’
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Dec 14, 2018 - 04:50pm PT
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40,000 km on my X so I take it into the shop since, shouldn’t cars usually go in every 6,000km for an oil change or something? Tesla mechanic says, here, let me check it on the computer while I fill up your tank for free and give you some free winter wiper blades. Good to go! $0.
What heats up faster, the engine in your car and the air vents or your blow drier? Yup. Electric cars are much more comfortable up here in Northern BC winters than gas since they blow warm air sooner than gas cars. And hella cheaper. I just figured out that my Toyota truck will cost me $54k in depreciation, maintenance and fuel for the first 50,000 miles. My X is $26k. CAD. The model3 is going to be cheaper than a Toyota Corolla.
Oh, and I backed into something with my X and pushed the back of the car in. Tore the bumper plastic open and wrecked the reflectors. They send a guy in a mobile Tesla van who replaces it on site for $300.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Dec 19, 2018 - 04:34pm PT
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Tesla releases their five minute buy and drive away program today. Apparently they don’t have time to waste haggling and talking with a manager since sales volumes are too high. This is gonna piss off a lot of traditional shoppers/old fashioned folk who enjoy wasting hours haggling over/buying cars like they are trinkets in Tijuana.
Got home and you didn’t like it? Return it within a day and get all your money back. Get home and your wife gives you the evil eye? You have three days to convince her to keep it if you didn’t get a test drive.
I was sitting in my car today playing Mario cart or whatever it is using the steering wheel to drive the video game on the screen when my hygienist got in next to me. Good thing I had the emissions testing mode on when she sat down...!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Dec 30, 2018 - 03:03pm PT
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So I was just in Whistler at the chargers and I saw a Tesla in the parking lot with it's window down. There was stuff in the car so I didn't want anyone to steal it. I called Tesla, gave the VIN and they rolled the window up after calling the owner to make sure it was ok to do so.
On the way home I had a question about the X, called Tesla. They did diagnostic check on it while I was driving and rebooted the computer. Both my screens went black for a few seconds after I held down both roller buttons on the steering wheel, and then we were good to go. All while driving at highway speed.
This car has saved me so much time since I don't need to go to a shop - if something is needed they don't make me stop driving or they drive to me.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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So why are there 3000 Model 3’s in inventory?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Tesla shares drop on price cut, disappointing Model 3 deliveries
(Reuters) - Shares in Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) dropped as much as 9 percent on Wednesday after the electric car maker cut U.S. prices for all its vehicles to offset lower green tax credits and fell short on deliveries of its mass-market Model 3 sedans in the fourth quarter.
The price cut “naturally begs the question: If demand for Tesla vehicles is as strong as Tesla has indicated in the past, why cut price?” Bank of America analyst John Murphy wrote in a client note. “In our view, this move could suggest that what many bulls assume to be a substantial backlog ... for Tesla may be less robust.”
Tesla turned a profit for the third quarter but is unprofitable for the first nine months of 2018, and cash flow remains a concern for investors.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Moosie, that might be the way capitalism works in Poland.
Have a nice trip. Hope you don’t get frostbit!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Reilly you don’t seem to have an original thought. You let others think for you. Look at the numbers and come up with something on your own. They sold more than they produced this quarter. Less inventory in transit now than theee months ago. Also, every other company counts cars sent to middlemen/dealers as sold. Even if they pile up in lots. Compare apples to apples and you won’t look like a fool for parroting stuff that doesn’t make sense when you look at the real, big, picture.
Ford, for example, has more than two months worth of F-150 pickups sitting around at the moment — something on the order of 200,000 vehicles.
Whine about how the three doesn’t sell for 35k. Economies of scale come into play and price gets closer to 35 and you whine about that now? You realize how that makes you look right?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Toothy, hope yer enjoying a fresh batch of kool-aid for 2019! Is Canadian Capitalism like
Polish where you lower prices to curb demand? Quite the novel concept!
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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Tesla stores stayed open New Year's Eve so people could snag a big tax credit that just got cut in half.
Probably hurt '19 sales.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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If you can’t defend logic I guess all you have left in your bag of tricks are extraneous personal attacks eh Reilly?
The negative nancies have nothing left to criticize about now so they say the sky if falling since they had half a days worth of production in the pipeline at the end of the quarter. Maybe they should have stopped the production line for the last three days to make people not have anything to say? Or shut down a few factories like GM? Is that the new cool thing to do? Oh yeah, first you have to open them in other countries. Almost forgot!!
Ford, for example, has more than two months worth of F-150 pickups sitting around at the moment — something on the order of 200,000 vehicles.
There is three days of GMs production sitting unsold on lots in BC alone. Why not rant about that?
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Tooth there is a lot to say, but why waste my time.
I am not arguing that the cars aren't good.
The car you have produced in a normal fashion would have cost 2 or 3 times what you paid. You made a good buy.
GM & every other manufacturer can't sell directly to you & can't loose money on every car they sell. Elon is working with other peoples money.
The Moose is close to right as production has gone up cost per unit have gone down.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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^^^ Yes, but much sooner. Don’t forget the yuge bond payments due this year. They can’t make money at current prices so they lower prices to boost sales they can’t meet? And how do you explain the 3000 Model 3’s sitting around? Is their delivery system that bad?
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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If demand for Tesla vehicles is as strong as Tesla has indicated in the past, why cut price?
Does the company want to maximize profit margin per vehicle, or maximize profit for the company as a whole? To increase earnings per share at a given level of debt (i.e. not looking at financing tricks to increase shareholder returns at the cost of increased shareholder risk), they should maximize profit as a whole.
Lower prices will increase the potential sales volume while also reducing profit per car... finding the price where the sales volume multiplied by the per-car profit is maximized is where they should set the price.
It was a Bank of America analyst whose words were quoted... maybe the point was to sow doubt and fear to lower the stock price among the public sheep so Bank of America can get a larger stock position? They are not one of the top institutional holders:
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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If demand for Tesla....why cut price?
Ask yourself. Why not stay with the roadster S and x? Why cut price of a model3?
Why cut the price of the S and x by a couple grand last fall?
Get where this is going? Accelerate the worlds transition to sustainable transport maybe?
Hmmmmmm, whose mission statement is that again?
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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To accelerate sustainable world transport the cars need to be about $12,000 or less.
Can they get there?
As world wide production goes up rapidly what will happen with the price of batteries?
What will happen when the robots start breaking? How much will it cost to keep machines running going from 1,000 unit per week to 20,000?
It may all work out - he has lots of money. & he is smart! A jerk but smart!
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Yup. Check out the companies now making cars for that. Not American companies, but the mission statement doesn’t say inspire Ford and GM only.
I’m glad you were smart enough not to say that they had to be under 12k(USD?) AND over 200 miles of range. No matter what Tesla does, people who don’t keep up on what is happening will always retort, well that’s fine, but what really needs to happen is X. And usually X is already happening or in the pipeline. With Americans’ prevailing attitudes about this I can see China/Europe easily overtaking you in this market.
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couchmaster
climber
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For the Elon Musk haters (Reilly, talkin to you:-)
....Tesla isn’t a car company, it’s a battery company.”
“Tesla isn’t a car manufacturer competing with other automobile manufacturers…Tesla’s vehicles are consumers of the company’s main product: batteries,” Dans concludes. “Rethink your models and your spreadsheets: stop seeing Tesla as a carmaker and start understanding that the company has much more ambitious plans for the future.”"
https://insideevs.com/tesla-secret-weapon-intense-focus-batteries/
...and again, for myself, I agree with many here that the stock is wildly overpriced at $350 a share.
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WBraun
climber
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Tesla is a far superior intelligent company compared to the rest of the behemoths.
They're not stuck in the caveman mode ......
The real future of gross materialists mobile transportation technology will not be battery powered but magnetic propulsion ......
And far superior to all that is sound vibration propulsion.
One can travel to any planet in the entire cosmic manifestation on that platform without any mechanical need.
Thousands of years ago they traveled like this.
Modern gross materialists are just puffed up cavemen masquerading as advanced.
This method is far beyond the pay scale of the caveman gross materialists .....
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WBraun
climber
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All technologies are always already there and have been since the beginning.
The more one purifies their consciousness from the constraints of the material energies the more they become visible ......
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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MGuzzy: I've toured the Giga plant.. its truly an amazing vision of the future of manufacturing.
I recently visited a friend who works at that plant. I was passing through Reno on the way back to southern Tucson from Oregon, and I hadn’t seen him for a few years. We only got an hour or so together at a local bar / recharging station about a mile away. My friend has a Ph.D. in materials, and he is very busy—which is why we could only see each other for 90 minutes. He loves the area for all the sports in the area (skiing, ultra marathon running, biking) and a dream house and new wife. He asked me if I wanted to see the plant, and I said no. When we met for lunch, he said the plant’s practices are not safe (“horrendous” is the word he used). He said Musk has fired people on the spot for reminding him of an OSHA regulation or two (“we’re supposed to be wearing safety shoes, Elon”). My friend also said that 50% of the people that are hired at the plant leave within a year. My friend at said that many people could find a job there: “you don’t need to be up on technology; you need to be a problem-solver.”
“Growth hides a multitude of sins.” Companies that are rushing to scale run many risks financially, production-wise, with workers (selection, training, development, retention, terminations) and with managers. It’s difficult to list them all. The drive for growth to gain scale and cover new or empty market spaces (competitive pre-emption) and placate share and debt holders will work for most firms as long as overall demand remains strong (+15% year). Once demand begins to come off, weaker firms will begin to stumble and fall—called a “shakeout.” Deep pockets may help the weaker firms for a while, but invariably firms not-well managed will fall by the wayside or exit, deep pockets notwithstanding.
Historically, a great number of well-heeled firms could not make transitions to new technologies: one can look at the computer industry, the automotive industry itself a century ago, and semiconductor equipment manufacturers. It’s very difficult for leaders in one technology to graduate to the next new technology. Academically, I’d want to know just how different the technologies are for electronic automobiles and to what extent it must be developed in-house (because knowledge and skills are difficult to come by). Research by Tushman & Anderson many years ago suggests why. To what extent are new technologies really different? Are they the result of competence-enhancement, or are they competence-destroying?
Here are a couple of images from an old presentation that might help to understand the issues that revolve around competence.
Be well.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Thanks, Mike, most illustrative. Hope Elon doesn’t sue you.
I toured the Gothenburg Volvo plant in June. Really amazing, but not just for the high tech.*
Yes, they produce 5 models on one line. Yes, there are 1400 robots at work. The most
amazing thing is how happy everyone looked. Of course it doesn’t hurt to have the Swedish
Bikini Team working there but the job turnover rate is virtually zero anyway. Safety? Volvo
invented safety, in their cars and on the factory floor. To combat boredom and promote
camaraderie (not difficult with Swedes anyway) everybody changes jobs every 90-120 minutes!
*You watch your cell phone being put in a locked drawer before you get on the tram.
BTW, for you reading comprehension challenged types - I don’t “hate” TSLA. I dislike Elon
and think his company is poorly run. The Model S is a very good car, as long as it doesn’t
burst into flames. The Model 3 is butt ugly but may be serviceable. It should be for $50K!
I went by one the other day that looked like it had a pre-oxidized paint job. I couldn’t believe
somebody accepted it. I dunno, maybe they’re in a grunge band.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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The Ted guy didn't mention how man could prevent the solar winds from stripping the geo-engineered atmosphere away, as it did earlier.
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WBraun
climber
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There are already living entities living on Mars.
St00pid people want to go there by mechanical means.
Earthlings can't live there.
You can go there in your next life (no space ship needed) and enter an appropriate martian material body if you want and continue wasting your time ....
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wilbeer
Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
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Werner ,could you send me some of that sh#t,man ,it must be good.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Reilly: I dislike Elon and think his company is poorly run.
In all fairness, I would say it would be very difficult to find a fast-growing company that was well-managed. In the growth state of a market, the objective is: don’t loose share! Keep up, or drive down the production supply curve and beat competitors to lower cost structures.
Some companies in the old world (mainly Texas Instruments) drove down the production curve so significantly that no competitor could come close to their costs (and hence lower prices). Boston Consulting Group established itself by teaching other companies that strategy of driving down cost curves pre-emptively and pricing *ahead of costs*--where costs would be when the product would be made. That's a very gutsy strategy.
When the shakeout starts in any growth industry, the surviving firms will pick up the share the fallen will have left behind. Then the game shifts to efficiencies across the spectrum to the other functions. But in the growth stage, it’s all about production. Ramping-up scale is the strategy that matters.
In an evolutionary sense, most every firm must succumb to industry dynamics (unless one is a monopolist). Industry effects tend to swamp company effects for most firms. The very best CEOs (Gates comes to mind, although many don’t care for him—“The Evil Empire”) have a feel for industry evolutionary dynamics and gear up for the next phase before it emerges. But that’s tough to do because of the apparent urgency in the current phase of an industry’s evolution. Few CEOs or GMs can extract themselves from day-to-day operations to focus on and prepare for the long-run. As one popular academic put it: “Every entrepreneur must learn to work on the business rather than in it.” That tends to mean subordinating product development to organization development.
Try telling that to an entrepreneur who believes that if it weren’t for him, success would have been impossible. Indeed, often that is exactly the case; but it doesn’t change industry requirements. Like the rest of us plebes, we need to be self-reflective and develop ourselves to move ahead.
I’m attaching another image that may be able to shine some light on industry dynamics and growth. Please note that the slide presents a highly idealized model / curve. An industry’s S-curve can be elongated horizontally, compressed horizontally, and can exhibit repeated instantiations upward with rapid new technology introductions—as one might see in the semi-conductor equipment manufacturing industry. Rarely did a winner from a previous technological revolution win in the next round: too much to learn (and unlearn if one is an incumbent).
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the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
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As seen on SpaceX's walkway to the Dragon spacecraft.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 11, 2019 - 07:42am PT
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When yer on a mission from God you can park any damn way you like!
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 11, 2019 - 11:50am PT
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Tooth where do you get your #'s?
Tesla Model 3 sales 145,846 U.S. & Canada 2018
Corolla U.S. only 303,732.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 14, 2019 - 06:57pm PT
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Frummy it looks like your numbers are the same as mine. But you may have been confused by assuming a corolla was a premium vehicle. Which it isn't. If you look at month to month sales numbers, the 3 is getting close to outselling the cheap cars by the end of the year too - once production had half ramped up. As I said, once they sell the no frills trim on the 3 - we can start to compare the numbers with the corollas and civics which sell in that price range. Sorry I didn't spell it out clearer at first.
145,000 US and Canada = 140 us and 5 Canada.
For example - in Dec 2018 Model3 sold 25,250. Corolla sold 23,793. Just a single month, not the entire year. Don't get confused on that either.Also, this is just cars. Don't confuse yourself by comparing to truck numbers like the F-150.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 18, 2019 - 08:25am PT
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TSLA -9%
They’ve also ended their free supercharging program and referral system.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jan 18, 2019 - 10:10am PT
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Pretty funny how Musk is so polarizing and the company is so heavily scrutinized, they make the best cars in the US.
If you mean funny 'odd', I would say not really. Musk is an outrageous celebrity CEO. He is also a d#@&%ebag with a cult following.
If you are the first new car company in the US for, what?, 70+ years, that in itself will get scrutiny. Add in that Tesla is a leading technology firm in the relatively new market for electric sport cars... A perfect storm.
I hope Tesla survives the storm. As far as Musk is concerned, I'm like whatever, dude.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 18, 2019 - 11:36am PT
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TSLA now down 13% and headed further south!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 19, 2019 - 02:22pm PT
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I guess Elon didn’t figure anybody in Seattle would buy a Model 3, huh?
[Click to View YouTube Video]
BwaHaHaHa! DOOD!
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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Jan 19, 2019 - 10:04pm PT
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TESLA is like a climber on El cap . The belayer was hit by a rock half way up on the nose and leader is out 57 meter with grigri locked at the belay. no backup rope/no jumar no aider no nothing.
it is nice sunny afternoon during the month November and storm is about to visit Yosemite.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 22, 2019 - 02:35pm PT
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confuse myself - Excuse me!
You sound like a Trumper!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 22, 2019 - 03:22pm PT
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Knott YOSAR - the short sellers. 😈
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 22, 2019 - 03:30pm PT
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Reilly, you need to put the number down, up 5% down 13% don't mean jack to futurarians. It closed today at 298.92 -that's the number that really matters. Not to Moose, he's in at 30 and doesn't want to pay the taxes if he sold.
That's a great video of the trunk design, LOL.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 22, 2019 - 04:18pm PT
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If Moosie was smart he would sell NOW! Mark my words.😈
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 22, 2019 - 05:47pm PT
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What's his tax liability?
BTW, we are on the same page re: Teslas stock price. TOOth, MOOse and I are on the same page of wishing (hoping) that they have wild success and change the world in a huge positive manner.
Best to you sir
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 23, 2019 - 07:15am PT
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A better world!
Tell that to the children mining the minerals for the batteries.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 23, 2019 - 09:32am PT
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Moose that is not an acceptable answer! & I am right.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 23, 2019 - 10:20am PT
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I'm not, nor have I ever just blamed anyone.
I came out of the auto industry, I want & we need change. But not change for change sake.
If people are unwilling to hear the negative we will never get it right.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Jan 23, 2019 - 11:09am PT
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I got it right. No emissions car from no emissions utility using minerals mined in Canada where the only child labour happening is with my kids.
The worst child labour I saw was in Guyana. Flew a Cessna a couple hours from a road to a grass strip. Hiked another couple hours to where a mining operation is using kids to sort through the scrap pile of mercury to see what gold it pulled out or fell off of the felt mat. Gold used in your cell phone and computer. Kids were offering me handfuls if gold for my shoes. I did dentistry for them. My friends live there and I’m returning for a sixth time in a row this year. If I learned anything there or Haiti or anywhere else I’ve worked around ‘child labour ‘ is that those thinking they are ethically superior come in wanting to impose righteousness and usually end up doing more harm than good. The way to enact change isn’t to rip away employment but build the economy and introduce education and options once the option to take time away from feeding themselves is in place. Just something to think about.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Jan 23, 2019 - 12:21pm PT
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If that were just true about building an economy. I don't think i'm ethically better than anyone.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 24, 2019 - 08:57am PT
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Almost got run over in Vons parking lot yesterday by some as#@&%e in a Model 3.
If you're saving the world it's OK to speed through parking lots, huh?
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Jan 24, 2019 - 09:15am PT
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Sigh.
Technology does not and cannot makes the world a better place. You’re getting ethics mixed up with science. It might look like the two are causally connected, but that’s a sense of modern idealism.
I understand how one can have a bleeding heart. It’s a world of scarce resources. No matter what the technology or organizing, one cannot create new energy. It’s a kind of zero sum game. One robs Peter to pay Paul.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 24, 2019 - 09:16am PT
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Just doing my patriotic part to keep the economy moving. I am also partial to eating regularly.
Just did my bit to help my cousins and booked a trip to Olde Blighty.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Jan 24, 2019 - 11:22am PT
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Almost got run over in Vons parking lot yesterday by some as#@&%e in a Model 3.
If you're saving the world it's OK to speed through parking lots, huh?
I think electric cars should be required to make gasoline engine noise.
Silent cars are way more dangerous for pedestrians. They are bad news for seeing-eye dogs also.
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Zoltani
Trad climber
LV, NV
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Jan 24, 2019 - 12:14pm PT
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I think he's full of sh#t and a huckster. Perhaps he is trying to convince us that we are in a simulation because it makes it easier to swallow moving into the virtual world, or another simulation. Have you seen the haptic feedback suit? I see his dystopian vision of the future and I don't like it.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Jan 29, 2019 - 11:32am PT
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Moosie, I want a prediction for tomorrow’s earnings report. How is Elon gonna sugar coat another quarterly loss and is he gonna get out his personal checkbook to pay off the $922 million bond due in 2 months? The market could hammer you tomorrow!
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couchmaster
climber
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Jan 29, 2019 - 03:37pm PT
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HONEYBADGER IS IN AT $17 REILLY, HONEYBADGER DON'T GIVE A SH#T. THAT'S $17 REILLY. PERHAPS, SINCE YOU SEEM TO WANT TO CONVINCE US HOW F*#KED UP MOOSE IS GONNA TAKE IT IN THE REAR, YOU CAN...opps, damned caps lock thing (sorry)..share with us some of your 20 bangers ?
:-) (smiley thingy at the end. Besides, Honeybadger don't want to be giving up half of it to the tax man. Stop taunting the lad. Make your play, let him make his.
Wish you well sir.
PS, I got a 3 banger out of Apple and sold too soon. I'm giving no one advice, I can't even play at being a financial adviser on the internet.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Jan 30, 2019 - 04:21pm PT
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Reading between the lines, it looks like Deepak is jumping ship while 1st Mate Zach takes over steering the SS Tesla into the iceberg.
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couchmaster
climber
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$ 312.21+5.19 today, up $12 since yer prediction Mr Reilly.
Anyway, let me preface todays news with a Chili Pep vid who's lyrics are"
Gib it away Gib it away Gib it away now
Gib it away Gib it away Gib it away now
Gib it away Gib it away Gib it away now [Click to View YouTube Video]
YES, MR Musk will be Gibbing it away Gibbing it away Gibbing it away NOW. ALL TSLA PATENTS ARE OPEN FOR FAIR USE.
"San Francisco, United States:
Elon Musk announced Thursday he had released all of the electric carmaker Tesla's patents, as part of an effort to fight climate change.
In a blog post, the colorful billionaire founder of Tesla promised the company "will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology."
It was a remarkable move in an industry where the smallest idea or seed of invention is carefully guarded to protect its monetary value.
And it in fact came on the same day US prosecutors charged a Chinese national with stealing secrets from Apple's self-driving vehicle project.
"Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport," Musk said. "If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal."" IT SEEMS HE'S GOING TO Gib it away Gib it away Gib it away now Gib it away Gib it away Gib it away now Gib it away Gib it away Gib it away now
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/elon-musk-releases-all-tesla-patents-to-help-save-the-earth-1986450
Stunning.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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I didn’t predict nuthin, I asked. There’s no accounting for crankloon koolaid drinkers.
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jbigi
climber
Berkeley, CA
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Isn't Elon's blog post (referred to in that article) from 2014?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 29, 2019 - 11:32am PT
Moosie, I want a prediction for tomorrow’s earnings report. How is Elon gonna sugar coat another quarterly loss and is he gonna get out his personal checkbook to pay off the $922 million bond due in 2 months? The market could hammer you tomorrow!
Well? Now the info is out there. What are the answers to these leading questions that you posed? How much was the quarterly loss? Oh. It wasn’t a loss. How are they going to pay? Oh, with the cash on hand. That’s embarrassing for you eh?
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couchmaster
climber
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Person not paying attention noted, quote: "Does Couchaster realize that the stock was trading $30 higher a year ago, or that it peaked in the early summer of 2017 $70 higher than it traded today?"
We should ask him.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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That’s embarrassing for you eh?
Yes, I’m totally devastated. So you don’t know the difference between a statement and a question, either? Nooo, it wasn’t a loss but it wasn’t far off, unless you’re guzzling koolaid.
Question: Who’s buying TSLA? I know there are a few institutional buyers but almost assuredly the majority are koolaid guzzlers. I look forward to being embarrassed.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Ummmm, I asked a question. With a question mark. Did you get it confused with a statement? Sure looks like it by your extensive reply. I made no more of a claim with my question than you did. But your response makes it clear that you want to cover your butt with your question mark while denying the same to others. You could be honest with your self - because your aren’t fooling anyone else.
-27C on my 5 hr drive home last night. Tesla did perfect, doesn't have any problems. Unlike some of the gassers that couldn't get started as 1 or 2 of their 2000 moving parts happened to have a hard time moving when their electric battery and motor try to turn the engine over.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Karkoekstan, Former USSR
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Car companies designed cars for people where in silicon valley, hi-tech engineers who had no f*#king idea what it takes to build a car build a car named "TESLA".
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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VW announced today they’re going all in on electric to the tune of $91 BILLION!
They’re affordable model will be out next year. Tic-toc, TSLA.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
The finger of fate, my friends, is fickle.
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Joe Rogan's net worth is roughly $25 million, making him one of the richest comedians in the world.
He doesn't need to drive a POS like a Tesla, fkrissake.😎
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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So cold this week that many people’s cars weren’t starting and they were missing their dental appointments. Good thing those high tech engineers living in the desert in California did such a good job- the Tesla drove perfectly in -30 to -40 even the four 5-hour trips back and forth for my grandpa’s death/funeral. Even handles the snow better than anything else I’ve driven - and we have snow covering the road five months a year up here. Why can’t Ford figure that out better? They have had years to build cars in Canada. On the last trip I pulled vehicles out of ditches or helped put people into ambulances from 4 vehicle incidences. Towing is so much better too.
I’d say Tesla is not only winning at their mission statement “ accelerate the advent of sustainable transportation “ but also at just making cars that function well.
I can see how you wouldn’t appreciate a lot of the features being from California where a moped worked for me just as well as a car, but for where we get real weather for almost half the year, the difference is black and white.
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Flip Flop
climber
Earth Planet, Universe
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So many Teslas in Tahoe now. Smiling drivers. Ultra Rich folks with high standards and challenging snowy roads.
Kinda funny watching Reilly get pwned by anyone with an inclination
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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I've certainly had my doubts about Tesla's long term viability. But I think it more likely they survive than not. And bankruptcy wouldn't have to kill the company. It could be reorganized and continued.
In 3 years I'm guessing buying a Tesla will be like buying an iPhone instead of Android.
Great product. But you would be able to get the same functionality cheaper. Just won't have the same cachet.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Reuters:
Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - When Tesla Inc announced last month a second round of job cuts to rein in costs, one crucial department was particularly badly hit. The automaker more than halved the division that delivers its electric vehicles to North American customers, two of the laid-off workers said.
Some 150 employees out of a team of about 230 were let go in January at the Las Vegas facility that gets tens of thousands of Model 3s into the hands of U.S. and Canadian buyers, they said, in a sign the company expected the pace of deliveries to significantly slow in the near term.
The cuts, which have not been previously reported, could fuel investor worries that demand for the Model 3 in the United States has tailed off after a large tax break for consumers expired last year and the car remains too expensive for most consumers.
Tesla has said its focus this quarter is on supplying cars to customers waiting in China and Europe.
“There are not enough deliveries,” one of the former employees told Reuters. “You don’t need a team because there are not that many cars coming through.”
Delivery of the Model 3 was the company’s key priority in the latter half of 2018, as Tesla tried to supply all buyers wanting the full benefit of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit before it was cut in half at year’s end.
The Model 3 is crucial to Tesla’s plans for long-term profitability. The company aims to post a profit in each quarter this year, based on the expectation that it will sell more Model 3s and continue to cut costs.
Even before the paring back of the delivery team, investors questioned the level of demand for the Model 3 remaining after Tesla’s all-out push to supply buyers ahead of the tax credit cut.
“Given the need for revenue to cover costs and generate cash, the financial community should be focused on the level of demand for Tesla vehicles – in particular the Model 3,” wrote Barclays analyst Brian Johnson in January.
The two former delivery workers said the 2018 sales push has left Tesla’s reservations list plucked clean of North American buyers willing to pay current prices of over $40,000 to get their hands on a Model 3.
Chief Executive Elon Musk initially said in 2016 the car would start at $35,000 - which sparked a rush of reservations - but Tesla has yet to actually sell any cars at that price, despite two price cuts already this year.
“We sold through just about every car we had on the ground and we called almost every being on the planet who had ever expressed desire to own a Tesla to let them know the tax credit was expiring,” said the other ex-employee.
Tesla workers around the company were reassigned to pitch in, that source said.
“They said, ‘Your job is off the table now, we have to get these cars delivered. Because if we don’t get these cars delivered, you don’t have a job tomorrow,’” the former employee said.
The Model 3s now rolling out of Tesla’s Fremont, California, factory are going to Chinese and European buyers, Tesla says.
The two laid-off employees said delivery targets for North America - made up of mostly U.S. buyers - this quarter would be 55 percent to 60 percent of what they were in the last quarter of 2018.
If Tesla does not cut prices soon, it risks losing potential customers - and ones already on its reservation list - to a slew of German and Asian competitors whose electric vehicles will hit the U.S. market this year. Each of the new entrant’s first 200,000 buyers will be eligible for a full federal subsidy.
Having met that number already, the U.S. tax credit for Tesla buyers drops in half to $3,750 for the first six months of 2019, then falls by half again in the second six months.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 10, 2019 - 06:52am PT
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To save everyone from reading miles of drivel, just write the letter A whenever you post the same tired argument that competition is coming to wipe out Tesla. Here’s an example from 2013
And write the letter B when you complain the stock price is too high. That would sum up the majority of your posts - none of which really matter according to the company’s mission statement and absolutely don’t matter to any of us owners. Why you care so much could only be explained by an innate desire to tear others down.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 12, 2019 - 10:11am PT
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TSLA’s second largest shareholder just dumped almost half their holding...
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 12, 2019 - 06:07pm PT
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That shareholder was TROW and the drop happened between
Sept 30 2018
and
Dec 31 2018.
But your reporting of 'JUST' is close enough for guys like you eh?
Meanwhile, short interest in TSLA has done this...
And the analyists at Canaccord Genuity set price target of $450 this year and Tesla has 3.7 B cash on hand for their 900M convertible bonds due next month.
See how narrow-minded or short vision cherry picking can be made to fit any narrative you want it to?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 20, 2019 - 02:27pm PT
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Remember, 330 million people in the United States have not ridden in a Tesla, don’t know what one looks like, think it costs over $100,000, and aren’t aware that it is 1/8th the price per mile to operate. It is Day Zero. The demand story will play out from 2020 to 2029.
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 23, 2019 - 03:50am PT
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Just saw a Tesla Model S downtown Colombo, Sri Lanka.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Feb 23, 2019 - 12:00pm PT
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Here is the part that caught my eye...
It trades at more than 200 times the consensus forecast for GAAP earnings, and revenue is forecast to grow at 25 percent a year, compounded, through 2021, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. That sort of growth requires spending...
Tesla slashed its capex budget in 2018 from an original target of $3.4 billion to just $2.1 billion
Source: Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-20/tesla-s-general-counsel-leaving-the-latest-warning-signal
...
Possibly, all the turnover and tweets just numb the senses. But the dissonance in Tesla’s numbers, on full display in the 10-K filing that dropped on Tuesday, is hard to ignore.
Tesla’s losses came to almost $1 billion in 2018. This would have been closer to $1.4 billion without the sale of $419 million of regulatory credits (see this for an explanation on these). In the second half of the year, Tesla did actually record a net profit of $451 million; although, by my estimates, sales of regulatory credits accounted for about 58 percent of that. 1 To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with this: Tesla makes products that qualify for credits and so is entitled to sell them for a gain...
You would expect economies of scale to kick in to some degree as revenue jumps, so the direction isn’t an issue. Where the dissonance creeps in is the scale of that change when set against the fact that, as a stock, Tesla is still very much a growth story. It trades at more than 200 times the consensus forecast for GAAP earnings, and revenue is forecast to grow at 25 percent a year, compounded, through 2021, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. That sort of growth requires spending...
Yet, as I wrote here, besides keeping a tight lid on expenses, Tesla slashed its capex budget in 2018 from an original target of $3.4 billion to just $2.1 billion – almost exactly in line with cash flow from operations. Tesla has also announced two large rounds of job cuts within the past 12 months. Remarkably, despite the big jump in revenue and tight spending, several of Tesla’s liquidity ratios actually deteriorated further in 2018. ...
The debate about Tesla is characterized by extremes, with ardent fans hailing it as untouchable and committed critics panning it as untenable. The latter have clearly weighed on Musk at times; so much so that Tesla inserted a bizarre risk factor into the latest 10-K filing, warning that critics could harm perception of the brand and the stock price. Musk’s own Twitter itch handing critics ammunition that very same evening is about as Tesla as it gets.
But once you’ve stripped away all the emotion, there’s a simple question: Is Tesla growing quickly and sustainably enough to justify its sky-high valuation? Put another way, do the clashing signals around spending, turnover in the ranks, weak governance, and the balance sheet deserve any sort of risk premium as opposed to today’s apparent absence of one? As I write this, the stock still trades just north of $300. I guess it all depends on what you choose to hear....
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
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Feb 27, 2019 - 09:17am PT
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Moose,
I've been really struck lately by the attitude, drive, smiles and general ambition to improve things that I've been seeing there and really all over the world too. I tell you, if U.S and China ever have a serious altercation, it might not be so easy taking sides. In recent years - following in the spirit of Huygens - I think I've become more a citizen of the world than ever. Crooked Trump probably had // has something to do with it. Maybe I should move to Poland. lol
I mostly enjoyed those 60 Minutes pieces not from the perspective of commerce and investment but from the perspective of cultural evo and advancing global civilization over generational time.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Feb 27, 2019 - 09:21am PT
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“The name is Tusk, Elon Tusk, and I prefer mine shaken, not stirred.”
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Feb 28, 2019 - 02:04pm PT
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https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/
I drive 50,000+ a year so this is what it would cost me in CAD... which I can confirm having done the same with my X.
I just read back through this thread. Got a laugh from Reily's posts because as time goes by he looks more and more misguided and more and more like a simple hater. All those posts about stock price going down (and is now higher) how there is no demand (and has since set records and sold out and crashed websites) just keep looking more and more foolish.
Edit couchmaster: I'm laughing at him since he says the stock price is just about to crash. And it doesn't. But the 10 year plan and mission statement trudge on. Tesla is in China too - getting special treatment by the government there - first to be able to build cars without giving China ownership,etc. I agree with you that the stock price is overvalued for what they actually make as products - which I have stated twice already. But if you can separate the facts from R's claims, you too will laugh.
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couchmaster
climber
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Feb 28, 2019 - 05:52pm PT
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Don't laugh at Reilly over his Tesla stock predictions Tooth. He's 100% correct and the stock price is wildly overinflated. Read Bill Graham, Warren Buffets mentor. Then when it crashes, AND IT WILL, there will be less hubris needed.
For myself, the stock price is different than if Tesla can succeed. I hope and pray they do well, and suspect that they will as they are an amazing company with world class product. Getting into the car business is very capitol intensive, and there is a lot of competitors about to enter the market. The full weight of the Chinese government is behind other electric car companies....that alone should give you pause.
Tooth noted: "I just read back through this thread. Got a laugh from Reily's posts because as time goes by he looks more and more misguided and more and more like a simple hater. All those posts about stock price going down (and is now higher) how there is no demand (and has since set records and sold out and crashed websites) just keep looking more and more foolish. "
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Tooth- I wouldn't crow just yet. Tesla is currently a sh#t show and I say this as someone who invested in Tesla in early 2013. The long time CFO is leaving, the CAO lasted one month, tons of turnover in the accounting Dept in the last year, head of HR lasted barely a year and two General Counsels have quit in the last three months. Not to mention Musk's problems with the SEC. Finally offering a stripped down car at 35k(at a loss) while suffering supply side issues and decreased demand for your higher tiered cars is not a victory. Like couchmaster, I hope Tesla succeeds, but Musk is mismanaging the company into the ground. Why would so many senior people who get multiples of the industry average in pay and bonuses be leaving the company if everything is just fine?
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Give it up guys.
You can't rationalize with true believers.
I'm not in the camp that thinks it is 100% certain that the stock will tank. But if I had to do one or the other, I would still be in the shorting the stock group not the investing.
Next few years will be interesting. Tesla has had this market niche mostly to itself. That's going to change. Competition will be good for the consumer. We will have to see how adversely that affects Tesla.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Tesla has had this market niche mostly to itself. That's going to change.
Yup. They’ve been like a light heavyweight fighting in the lightweight division. Now they are going to have to go up against the real heavyweights. It won’t be pretty.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Musk has just hired the law firm Hueston Hennigan. John Hueston was the lead prosecutor that took down Enron. Makes you go hmmmmmm.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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On the docket for this week -
My X, along with all Teslas, old and new, will get an update for 5% more power, so faster 0-60 and higher top speed.
Superchargers V3 comes out, so even faster charging.
Model Y reveal
Truck reveal later this year.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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And Tonopah , Nev now has a Tesla charging station . Close to the Clown motel no less !
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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August West: Tesla has had this market niche mostly to itself. That's going to change.
A surety in every industry, unless one has eked-out a monopolist’s competitive position. How these things get played out depends upon the skill sets of the path-breaking, innovative incumbent and its followers. If my academic memory is still working somewhat well, I’d report that about half the time, fast followers overtake the bleeding-edge innovator. The data colleague Banks reports above should make any Tesla aficionado concerned. It’s been a repeating observable pattern for Tesla and Musk for years now.
The Federal Reserve has, I think, about 24 different economic indicators to help economists determine what stage of growth an economy is in. Some are leading indicators, some are co-incidental, and others are following indicators. For example, paper stocks and production are leading indicators because suppliers must package products in order to deliver them. Cardboard production was one indicator we watched closely when I worked for a primary government securities dealer.
Unfortunately there has not been a rigorously designed set of indicators to predict the failure of firms but for something called the Altman’s Z-score, which has been used to predict organizational bankruptcies. However, the ability to find, develop, and keep key talent has generally been looked at as very important in business among consultants, academics, and practitioners. Sadly, the orientation has always taken a back seat to immediate financial performance: the short-term drives out the long term in organizational settings.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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I should have added the following.
Jim Collins published a book of a 4 year research study on the decline of great companies, called: “How the Mighty Fall.” He reports a 5-stage model of decline. It goes like this:
Stage 1: Hubris born of Success
Stage 2: Undisciplined Pursuit of More
Stage 3: Denial of Risk and Peril
Stage 4: Grasping for Salvation
Stage 5: Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death
Collins notes in his book that a few firms have recovered from Stage 4 to emerge even stronger.
Collins is most noted for his best-selling books, Built to Last and Good To Great.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I can name two times in the last decade that Tesla was in stage four. One time Elon asked every shareholder to double their stake or they were going under. This is before the S came out. Another time was before that.
The problem with Tesla is that once you drive it you are hooked. Majority of us buy a second one and every other car company is still selling rotary phones while I’m enjoying my iPhone X. That makes it hard to do the usual route to step five because in the past six months they just got another third of a million new loyal customers. And pissed of a bunch in Taiwan who are mad that the prices dropped this week. Apparently they think it devalued their ‘depreciating assets’ - cars.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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The problem with Tesla is that once you drive it you are hooked. Majority of us buy a second one and every other car company is still selling rotary phones while I’m enjoying my iPhone X. That makes it hard to do the usual route to step five because in the past six months they just got another third of a million new loyal customers. And pissed of a bunch in Taiwan who are mad that the prices dropped this week. Apparently they think it devalued their ‘depreciating assets’ - cars.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-02/german-car-industry-to-invest-45-billion-in-electric-vehicles?srnd=premium
Germany’s automotive industry will invest over 40 billion euros ($45 billion) in electric vehicles over the next three years to triple the number of models vying for buyers, the head of the VDA car industry association said.
$45 billion ought to get them past rotary phones pretty quickly. I think the iPhone X is an excellent example. Apple sells great products with a huge mark up to a cult following. You can get similar performance for 1/3 the cost.
If Tesla does succeed, I think it will look like Apple in a lot of ways.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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"Never bet against Elon Musk".
Peter Thiel
I stick to mutual funds. So I'm not buying individual stocks or trying to short them.
And even if Tesla stocks turn out to be overvalued, you can go bankrupt waiting for market fundamentals to kick in. Especially with a celebrity/cult company like Tesla.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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I think what Apple did with smart phones was great. I'm glad that Tesla made electric cars sexy. I think this would have happened eventually anyway, but he definitely kick started the process.
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Toker Villain
Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
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So Elon was doinking Amber Heard while she was married to Jonny Depp?
Respect!
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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I can name two times in the last decade that Tesla was in stage four. One time Elon asked every shareholder to double their stake or they were going under. This is before the S came out. Another time was before that.
The problem with Tesla is that once you drive it you are hooked. Majority of us buy a second one and every other car company is still selling rotary phones while I’m enjoying my iPhone X. That makes it hard to do the usual route to step five because in the past six months they just got another third of a million new loyal customers. And pissed of a bunch in Taiwan who are mad that the prices dropped this week. Apparently they think it devalued their ‘depreciating assets’ - cars.
And Tesla is in stage 4 again, except this time they are running out of moves to make. Model Y and truck announcements are just ploys to keep the stock afloat. They need to spend cash to make those things happen except they are quickly running out of it and no one wants to give them more. Closing all retail locations after just saying they are expanding retail locations is not a good sign. Laying off workers for the third time since last summer is not a good sign. Having trouble recruiting and keeping talent at a "cool" company while offering above industry averages in pay is not a good sign. Slashing prices on their top margin vehicles is not a good sign. And yes, you would be pissed too if you spent well over $100k on a car only to see the next guy get his for 20k, 30k or 40k less. If things are so great in Tesla land, why did Musk just mortgage his FIVE houses for $61 Million?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Are you sure about that? That is what we call an incorrect assumption. Didn’t you read where I keep saying how happy I am with my X? And happy that they are doing what they said they would at Tesla with models and pricing? Are we all so used to politicians who say one thing to get elected and then do another that when people actually follow through it confounds us?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Toothie, we get that you love yer car. What does that have to do with anything? By all accounts the Tucker was the car of the future too.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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It has to do with statement he typed which immediately preceded my reply that went something like this...”And yes, you would be pissed too if you spent well over $100k on a car”. Don’t act so dumb R. And I hope you are acting because I can’t imagine someone actually being that ignorant.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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Reilly isn’t acting.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Thank you, RJ.
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rottingjohnny
Sport climber
Sands Motel , Las Vegas
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Got your back Vato .
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Tooth- So you're trying to tell me that you would be happy paying tens of thousands more for a car just because you bought it a day earlier than someone else?
And to Reilly's point, you just keep repeating how much you love your car without addressing any of the real serious problems that Tesla is facing. Tesla's are nice innovative cars and what Musk has done is impressive. But he has also taken its first mover advantage and squandered it. As a Tesla owner are you not concerned about the future of the company?
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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Reilly: . . . the Tucker was the car of the future too.
I remember the Edsel. Strange and interesting car that was.
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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The Edsel something like 19 bolts on the water pump. I hated working on them.
The ten inventions that nobody thought would be a success? I think a lot of people thought they would be very successful if perfected.
Tooth you asked why can't Ford do what Tesla is doing. Because they can't lose money on every car they sell.
Oh and by the way Teslas battery tech. came from GM.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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^^^
Asking why Ford (or the Germans) can't do what Tesla does is like asking why Samsung can't do what Apple does.
Apple got a huge head start on the smart phone market. Huawei and Samsung are now selling far more cost effective products than Apple is.
And Apple made hundreds of billions during its early dominance. While Tesla is bleeding money during its early dominance.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Banks, that is what happens when you buy tech. It gets cheaper and better in the future. I’m happy that Tesla is following through on their promise to do so, and I had five years to watch the changes in prices and tech at Tesla before I purchased. It happened before, after, and will continue to change. My dad happened to get a $2500 discount when the S literally dropped in price the next week (last year) , so I know that they don’t leave guys high and dry overnight as you postulated. I also know that I paid more for free supercharging ($9000 of value to me this year alone) which these new cars ($10,000 less) don’t have.
As far as Tesla squandering their lead, i still can’t find an EV that would let me travel like normal(50,000k/yr) that isn’t a Tesla. Especially a GM product. Their batteries are not actively heated or cooled, and all the other little details that make Tesla just work. They have the problems that justify the excuses for not getting an electric car, like waiting to charge, etc. Problems I would not want to have. But as far as product that you can buy, nobody has taken the lead, yet. It will hopefully happen, but when it does, I’m don’t care because ford has a lead with the F150 and Toyota still sells Tacomas. Which no self-respecting rancher Living up here would be caught dead in. So there is room in the market for more that one player. Tesla product is so good that I am excited for whatever eclipses them and hope there is a lot of real good product put out there soon. I fear though that they will only continue to produce compliance vehicles for as long as possible hoping that Tesla goes under and then they will kill their EV programs as well. Or it may become a non-north American thing. Where Europe/China has manufacturing of EVs and the US doesn’t. Doesn’t make it right. But politics can have just as much influence as market demand.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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And as far as being worried about Tesla going under because I own one... there are almost a million built and the best charging network out there. Going bankrupt means auctioning off the assets, so someone will pick it up. It won’t disappear into thin air. It would probably be bought out by someone who wants to keep the high end stuff and run it without expansion. Like Audi or Jaguar - neither of which has been able to beat the performance specs given the same size battery.
So you can get all hyped about the media accounts of excitement going on around the company or just take a realistic view and actually experience the product. I choose to relax and enjoy.
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steve s
Trad climber
eldo
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Race ya ......across the country?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Remember how technology improves with time? Guess what comes out today? Version 3 supercharger. 200kW+?
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Imagine the money to be made coming out with a new battery 2x as good as the current Lithium packs...
Realistically though it's going to be extremely hard to approach the calorie density and distribution network of gasoline/diesel. Filling up with 20 gallons of gasoline for 500+ miles of range in 5 minutes is hard to beat. Even if such a battery existed that could be charged in such a time, the draw and network supporting the charger would have to be massive.
Interesting times for sure. My $$$ is going towards storage innovations... a much better battery is really the key to everything promised by renewables.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I don’t think batteries in their current form will ever be as energy dense as petroleum. Gas cars burn 16x the energy to go one mile than an electric car, and BEVs are not going to get 16x more efficient. However the gas cars waste most of it in heat and sound.
You can go from Teslas 400v systems to Porches 800v and get faster charging but then you get more battery degradation. Even supercharging at 100kW is harder on our batteries than at 17kw like GMs. But now there are 200-350kW chargers available... the actual charging isn’t that hard on the grid. We have bigger draws from gas stations (to run all the gas pumps and convenience stores) in every tiny litttle podunk town already than what a destination charger takes.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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I’ve read a million of those articles and not a single one saying how they would accomplish the same goal the ‘correct ‘ way. It’s easy to criticize (talk) and hard to act or even put together a coherent plan and even harder to act successfully.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Wow, they're moving their car sales online... shocking....Can't imagine buying a car online. I bet the next move will be to move customer service on these purchases and warranties to online message boards only and no phone...just where all these "disruptive" industries are moving: elimination of human contact.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Article implies they're abandoning 20% of sales volume to obtain profitability. Sounds desperate.
Not only abandoning current 20% percent sales, but bigger percent of future sales/hurting expansion, I'm sure, as their current Model 3 buyers crowd, 82% of whom buy these cars online - let's just say it's not the regular customer who'd do that.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Like I said... critical speculation comes easiest. Thanks for making my point for me. It almost takes zero effort.
Nobody else has made such a good vehicle - my charging times just dropped in half with tonight's announcement for V2 (12,888 of them deployed) and V3 supercharger updates. 1000 miles added per hour with V3 now. ( Compare to GM's 4-27miles added per hour- and has never made an improvement to the Bolt since my friend bought one. please explain to me how Tesla got the tech from them and how they lost their competitive advantage again?) BTW, my X is charging for free right now at a hotel - while I sleep. Drove 5 hours through a snowstorm and I don't have to get out to charge. Just plug in while I sleep. The cost of gas for that drive would have been more than the $92 I just spent on the hotel room.
It would be possible by next year to uproot and become an entirely Chinese company if they wanted to do so. The Chinese have no problems copying tech, Tesla has all open patents, and they can build faster than they do in Dubai. There is a reason GM moves production of most things but trucks offshore, but Elon and his character flaws keeps saying that he is stubbornly American and wants it all kept in-house.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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I wonder who gets stuck with that last Chevy Cruze.... that's gotta be one hot mess...
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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No way that you can compare Delorean with Tesla.
Tooth is right, I have read dozens of articles that don't get what's going on at Tesla.
I have also read some that do & it's sad he is relearning many of the things the industry already knew.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Tooth- Thanks for your reply. Technological improvements or not, if I spent 150k for a car and it dropped 40k overnight, I would be pissed as would most people. It not only devalues the brand but is a big FU to customers.
As for squandering their first mover advantage, they most definitely have. They should have been pumping out cars and printing money, instead they wasted huge amounts of time and money on poor ideas and now have to resort to playing musical chairs to stay afloat. Excessive automation which brought the assembly line to a screeching halt, bad idea. Design flaws such as designing a nine piece wheel well that has to be welded and riveted instead of a single stamped piece, bad idea. Hiring people as heads of vehicle engineering who have never developed cars, bad idea. Solar City bailout, bad idea. Audi is coming in a big way. So are other companies. They should be in a much stronger position than they are currently in.
So how does one fix things?
1)Stop trying to reinvent the wheel from a production standpoint and just build on top of the foundations of the industry.
2)Stop making ridiculous timetable and production number predictions.
3)Listen to your top people. You hired them for a reason.
4)Stop lying to investors.
5)Stop antagonizing the SEC. It won't end well.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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What if it cost 150 and dropped to 140 overnight while dropping features like free supercharging? That is more like what happened. Not the 40k USD drop. (Overseas tax issues made differences larger, like the 25% luxury tax we have in Canada for the previous base price on the x. )I could speculate that it would annoy me to drop 60% in price but when it didn’t actually do that ....
There were other design flaws that were pointed out by the guys who tore down the model3. They said it could be built way cheaper and lighter like the Chevy Cruze. But then the crash test results came out and they blew everyone else out of the water because of those complex wheel wells.
Sometimes the goals to be as safe as possible and to have as clean of air as possible mean that things are done and built differently making it hard to stand on the shoulders of previous automotive giants. I’ll agree with you though that there have been a lot of missed opportunities where they wanted to learn the hard way and didn’t know where to draw the line between the two choices.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Price drops of 40k and more actually did happen. Just look at prices in Europe and Asia. So no, it's not a trivial drop with a bonus upgrade.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Tesla's Elon Musk could be suspended as CEO in latest SEC scuffle, securities lawyers say
Pretty sure I hear the fat lady warming up.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Realistically though it's going to be extremely hard to approach the calorie density and distribution network of gasoline/diesel. Filling up with 20 gallons of gasoline for 500+ miles of range in 5 minutes is hard to beat. Even if such a battery existed that could be charged in such a time, the draw and network supporting the charger would have to be massive.
It is hard to know where the technology is going to go but you are probably right. You could probably get to a 5 minute time if the business model was that you drove into the station and there was an automated system that swapped out your batteries for already charged ones. Obviously someone else would have to own the batteries. I remember reading that somebody was trying this approach in Israel but haven't heard anything about it for a while.
If the country had spent as much money building charging networks as filling stations, I don't think there would be any issues. But building the system up from scratch isn't trivial. To really make a difference, you would probably need carbon taxes (or mandates) or else gasoline powered cars will probably be the majority of the market for some time to come.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Musk is likely on the spectrum of mania somewhere... bi or unipolar sort.
A lot of our most creative minds were/are. So what?
At least he's attempting to be productive in a positive manner no matter how unlikely it may be. Reality will constrain his endeavors.
I've wondered if Leonardo Davinci was also somehow afflicted. The sheer volume of output is breathtaking and largely nonfunctional, but inspiring nonetheless. Wonder what a guy like that could have done with CAD/CAM.....
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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VP of Engineering just resigned. 3.5 years at Tesla. No new job lined up. He either had enough or was forced out.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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formerclimber: Can't imagine buying a car online.
Perhaps things have changed since I first found out about this, but most states (all?) have laws that automobiles must be purchased through automobile franchise dealers. Guess who got those laws through? It's a kind of territorial brand-exclusive monopoly. Were it not for that, I'd think we'd have seen automobilie buying online long ago.
The players in the American Automobile Industry have been in trouble for a long time. We taught many case studies on the stubborness of the Big 3 to see and adjust to changing industry structures. Poor performance almost predates our personal experiences of automobiles. But, hell, we don't care. Owning and driving your own vehicle is as American as apple pie.
It's worthwhile to look at all of the lobbying and deal-arranging that political representative made with the automobile industry. Eisenhower, rather than spending the money on mass transit, was lobbied by the automobile companies to spend the $25B on an interstate highway system. BITD, $25B was a great deal of money.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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My X now has more range than when I bought it over a year ago. Opposite of what I expected with battery degradation.
It has more power, faster 0-60 by .5s.
It has faster charging , cutting charging time 25-50% at superchargers.
It has so many new features as well.
I have never ever purchased a tech product like this that is bertter a year later in substantial ways.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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I just said that I, personally, wouldn't ever buy a car online (and most of the average consumers wouldn't): it's not wise. But people should be allowed to buy cars, houses, etc online if they want to (I bought a house online once because of special situation, wouldn't do it again - most realtors won't get involved in remote house sale, btw). Heck, people even buy spouses online now.
Regarding these restrictive laws... aside from lobbies, I can imagine a lot more claims of misrepresentation, missing info, non-working things, lemon law returns (and attempts to reject these returns), for a new vehicle bought online vs in a dealership, after test driving it and doing smoke test on key features. In another thread here, it's been adamantly argued that the buyer must check all car features to be fully operational before leaving the dealership or not be entitled to any returns or amends.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Tooth- One more question regarding not being worried if Tesla folds. Talking to several friends who own Teslas, they have experienced loooong wait times for relatively minor repairs/issues. Seems that parts and technicians are often in short supply. I imagine it would be substantially worse if Tesla went belly up. Also, who would handle all the software issues and upgrades. I'm not saying these issues can't be overcome, just that its a lot more complicated than someone will buy up Tesla and everything will be fine.
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
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Thanks in large part to Elon Musk, Sapiens this week is one step closer to "colonizing" Mars.
Baby steps.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Yes, the SpaceX Crew Dragon successfully splashed down in the Atlantic today. Kudos to the team at SpaceX.
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WBraun
climber
|
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All those that want to go to mars should be sent right away and good riddance.
That way this planet can start to heal much quicker .....
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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^^^^ AMEN!
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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All those that want to go to mars should be sent right away and good riddance.
Nah, Unfortunately the first people to go would be the test-pilot/squirrel-suit mentality guys. We need their skills and balls to prove out more constructive things.
The people you want sent there would be the last to go...
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
|
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Meanwhile, back on Earth, more proof Tesla is in financial trouble. According to Tesla securities fillings, the company has total lease obligations of 1.6 Billion with 1.1 Billion due between this year and 2023. Just last month Tesla was signing and negotiating new lease agreements. They signed a new lease in my town until 2025. Now they bail on all retail locations. I guess they'll try to tie up the broken lease payments for years until they actually can pay them off or they are bankrupt and can't.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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All those that want to go to mars should be sent right away and good riddance.
That way this planet can start to heal much quicker .....
Could not agree more.
Why the need to go to Mars? To f*#k it up, like we did earth?
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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I just said that I, personally, wouldn't ever buy a car online
I would have hesitations buying a used car online.
But for a new car where the manufacturer was standing behind the product so I felt I would be treated reasonably if something went wrong...
I would way prefer to buy it online. I freaking hate dealing with car sales people and dealerships and their BS games on what the final freaking costs out the door will be.
I guess it has an up side. I hang on to my cars several years longer than I would otherwise cause I despise the process of buying a car so much.
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BigB
Trad climber
Red Rock
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Elon Mosque
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steve s
Trad climber
eldo
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Did someone up thread say they paid $150,000. For a Tesla ? What model and what bells and whistles ?
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Minerals
Social climber
The Deli
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Why the need to go to Mars? To f*#k it up, like we did earth?
Precisely. But it’s not like there is existing habitat on Mars to destroy.
And we haven’t finished here on Earth yet.
Have fun out there, Musketeers...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 10:04am PT
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So last month Tesla announced it was going to expand its retail locations, only to reverse course and suddenly announce the closing of all retail locations last week. Yet just 3 days later they have now decided to keep about half of the locations open and bump up prices 3%. Yep, sounds like things are running smoothly.
Tesla also recently purchased a bunch of delivery trucks for 15 million. And paid for it in stock, not cash. Interesting....
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Mar 11, 2019 - 12:13pm PT
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That should appease all the people who were worried about the price drop they just made across the board for all vehicles. Putting it back to where it was, (increase base cost in Europe and the taxes increase proportionally as well - making up any price percentage difference)
Also, the 35k model3 price was not changed.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 01:11pm PT
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How about the $1.5 BILLION they’re on the hook for lease agreements for ‘stores’?
1.1 billion is due in payments just this year!
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 01:32pm PT
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That should appease all the people who were worried about the price drop they just made across the board for all vehicles. Putting it back to where it was.
Simply not true. Price cuts were much greater than 3% as I pointed out up thread. A simple price search of Europe and Asia confirm this. The bigger issue is that the company is all over the map in its decision making process.
1.1 billion is due in payments just this year!
I believe it is between now and 2023. But still, a lot to have on the books and just hope to wipe clean by closing stores.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 01:33pm PT
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Reily, Musk is rich, he can afford paying from his private account.
So why did he mortgage his 5 houses for 60 million?
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Mar 11, 2019 - 01:58pm PT
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So why did he mortgage his 5 houses for 60 million?
Maybe because he doesn't get subsidized like the other auto makers? I don't know, wondering..
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 02:43pm PT
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Banksy, closing stores doesn’t cancel the lease agreements, does it? 😉
And I believe it was Reuters that said the 1.1 billion is due this year. I could have misread it.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 04:14pm PT
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I say it will but my caveat is that Elon can’t use his personal stash to bail out the company.
And the money has to go to a charity of yer choice, or mine if I win. You know, like the NRA.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 04:20pm PT
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Cragar- The simple answer is that Tesla is in financial straits and they have limited ways of raising capital.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 04:53pm PT
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And right on cue....
Tim Newell, Director of Financial Products
and
Adam Laponis, VP of Global Finance
Are out. But everything is fine at Tesla.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 11, 2019 - 05:03pm PT
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Mar 13, 2019 - 09:47pm PT
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If the following story is basically true, and Bloomberg is a pretty mainstream outlet that I think would be pretty careful with their fact checking, Musk is a horrible human being. There should be criminal laws against trying to maliciously destroy someone's reputation with lies like this.
From the guy who baselessly accusing a British cave diver on Twitter of pedophilia, he now tries to destroy a former worker for whistle blowing.
People, this is one reason, among many, that CEO celebratory cult worship is bad...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-13/when-elon-musk-tried-to-destroy-tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp?srnd=premium
When Elon Musk Tried to Destroy a Tesla Whistleblower
It started with a Twitter meltdown and ended with a fake mass shooter. A former security manager says the company also spied and spread misinformation.
By the larger-than-life standards of Elon Musk, the story was far from a blockbuster. On June 4, 2018, Business Insider reported that Tesla Inc. was scrapping or reworking 40 percent of the raw materials at the Gigafactory, its huge battery plant in the Nevada desert. The article cited a source who figured the inefficiency had cost Musk’s electric car company $150 million, describing giant piles of scrap materials in the factory. Tesla denied the report, and a few hours later, the world moved on.
The world, that is, except Elon Musk. Although he wasn’t asked about the Business Insider story the following day at the company’s annual meeting, he stewed for weeks, dispatching a team of investigators to try to figure out who’d shared the information with the press.
The leaker, they determined, was one Martin Tripp, a slight man of 40 who’d spent his career in a series of low-level manufacturing jobs before finding his way to the assembly line at the Gigafactory. Tripp later claimed to be an idealist trying to get Tesla to tighten its operations; Musk saw him as a dangerous foe who engaged in “extensive and damaging sabotage,” as he wrote in a staff memo. He implied that Tripp had shared the data not only with the press but also with “unknown third parties.”
Could larger forces be at work? Musk wondered out loud. Could Tripp be coordinating with one of Tesla’s many enemies—oil companies, rival automakers, or Wall Street short sellers? “There are a long list of organizations that want Tesla to die,” he warned.
On June 4, 2018, Business Insider reported that Tesla Inc. was scrapping or reworking 40 percent of the raw materials at the Gigafactory, its huge battery plant in the Nevada desert. The article cited a source who figured the inefficiency had cost Musk’s electric car company $150 million, describing giant piles of scrap materials in the factory. Tesla denied the report, and a few hours later, the world moved on.
The world, that is, except Elon Musk. Although he wasn’t asked about the Business Insider story the following day at the company’s annual meeting, he stewed for weeks, dispatching a team of investigators to try to figure out who’d shared the information with the press.
...
Tripp later claimed to be an idealist trying to get Tesla to tighten its operations; Musk saw him as a dangerous foe who engaged in “extensive and damaging sabotage,” as he wrote in a staff memo. He implied that Tripp had shared the data not only with the press but also with “unknown third parties.”
Could larger forces be at work? Musk wondered out loud. Could Tripp be coordinating with one of Tesla’s many enemies—oil companies, rival automakers, or Wall Street short sellers? “There are a long list of organizations that want Tesla to die,” he warned.
On June 20, the company sued Tripp for $167 million. Later that day, Tripp heard from the sheriff’s department in Storey County, Nev. Tesla’s security department had passed a tip to police. An anonymous caller had contacted the company to say Tripp was planning a mass shooting at the Gigafactory.
When the police confronted Tripp that evening, he was unarmed and in tears. He said he was terrified of Musk and suggested the billionaire might have called in the tip himself. A sheriff’s deputy attempted to cheer up Tripp and then called Tesla to tell the company that the threat, whoever had made it, was bogus. Tripp wasn’t dangerous.
Many chief executive officers would try to ignore somebody like Tripp. Instead, as accounts from police, former employees, and documents produced by Tesla’s own internal investigation reveal, Musk set out to destroy him.
Tesla’s PR department spread rumors that Tripp was possibly homicidal and had been part of a grand conspiracy. On Twitter, Musk suggested the Business Insider reporter, Linette Lopez, was on the payroll of short sellers and claimed Tripp had admitted to taking bribes from her in exchange for “v0aluable Tesla IP.” Lopez denied the allegation.
The security manager at the Gigafactory, an ex-military guy with a high-and-tight haircut named Sean Gouthro, has filed a whistleblower report with the SEC. Gouthro says Tesla’s security operation behaved unethically in its zeal to nail the leaker. Investigators, he claims, hacked into Tripp’s phone, had him followed, and misled police about the surveillance. Gouthro says that Tripp didn’t sabotage Tesla or hack anything and that Musk knew this and sought to damage his reputation by spreading misinformation.
The following day, news of the lawsuit hit the internet. Tripp Googled himself and saw a story titled, “Martin Tripp: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know,” which said he lived in a rental apartment in nearby Sparks, Nev. Panicked about who might come find him, he sent an email to Musk. “You have what’s coming to you for the lies you have told to the public and investors,” he wrote.
His former boss, of course, engaged him with gusto. “Threatening me only makes it worse for you,” Musk replied. Later, he wrote: “You should be ashamed of yourself for framing other people. You’re a horrible human being.”
So Musk says he has been framed and calls him a horrible human being.
And some people want this guy for president? Trump II.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Mar 14, 2019 - 08:19am PT
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I wonder what evidence Martin Tripp got on Tesla issues.
If he was able to get hard evidence, wouldn't a pack of lawyers jump on Musk by now?
Tripp is running gofundme for legal coverage, but is far from target.
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10b4me
Social climber
Lida Junction
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Mar 14, 2019 - 08:48am PT
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And some people want this guy for president? Trump II.
I hadn't heard that.
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Mar 14, 2019 - 12:17pm PT
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A day earlier than scheduled from the tweet last year, tonight is the Y unveiling.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 15, 2019 - 08:26am PT
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The market is non-plussed by the Model Why? - TSLA down 3.7%
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FRUMY
Trad climber
Bishop,CA
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Mar 15, 2019 - 08:53am PT
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MotoE fire in Jerez destroyed all MotoE motorcycles.
"The Batteries don't warn you when they explode, so you have no time to react."
"I think that electric motorcycles are much more dangerous than those we are used to seeing on the track"
"I dare not imagine what would have happened if that fire had started during a traditional race weekend with workers and many fans present in the paddock."
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Mar 15, 2019 - 09:15am PT
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A gallon of gasoline vapor in the right ratio of oxygen has the explosive power of around 6 sticks of dynamite...
Anything that stores enough energy to move something heavy for great distances is going to be potentially very dangerous.
I know I've seen a lot of people burned to death in various gasoline inspired auto fires. It just doesnt make the news as much....
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Mar 15, 2019 - 09:17am PT
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Seems like Twitter issued a temporary suspension first, for sharing internal Tesla emails, and then Tripp took down his account upon his attorney's advice.
He did file counter-suit here's the filing text, with details of what he observed at the factory:
https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/31/17636928/tesla-whistleblower-martin-tripp-countersuit-elon-musk-twitter
The former Tesla employee is seeking $1 million plus punitive damages.
Frankly, if he got stuff on them, small amount sought is surprising.
Trip doesn't sound like the kind of person who'd have the skills to hack into Tesla systems and have software run on coworkers' computers to keep sabotaging it even after he's gone (what they allege)...unless he's working for someone who provided instructions and software. If he had those skills: he wouldn't work in the capacity in which he did at Tesla.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 15, 2019 - 02:49pm PT
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Model Y or Model Yawn?
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tooth
Trad climber
B.C.
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Mar 15, 2019 - 03:32pm PT
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Elon didn’t reveal the modelY last night so much as say goodbye, here’s my legacy that I hope you all will remember me by.
Interesting...Model Y or Model Yawn?
Let's compare apples to apples...
Y vs Jag or Audi.... Y has more range(300 vs 200mi), quicker(3.5s 0-60 vs 4.5s), cheaper, and has more and faster charging options (1000mi/hr vs 168mi/hr) by far.
So everything but subjective things like design or interface, the Y blows the competition away.
What about that makes you yawn? Have you driven one? Defin. no yawning taking place. Such a weird comment - some folks are so ignorant/uneducated.
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Mar 16, 2019 - 08:20am PT
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The story of Martin Tripp is just bizarre...
The guy goes whistleblowing after being with Tesla for only several months. He has a dog, a wife, and a child while clearly is not the type that already got FU money stashed: profile of a person who'd normally be less inclined to go to town on their employer (more dependent)....and normally would take a lot more time (longer time of experiencing employer's abuse) to get angry enough to blow a whistle with media involved, all bridges burned and all.
Musk claimed that he modified MOS code (MOS is their production tracking system which probably can be accessed by users of Tripp's level via web interface only). If he somehow was able to get access to actual code (and he's production line employee not software developer) , to change it, and reinstall the image on the servers without more than one person being able to detect and block that...means ridiculously low levels of security used with Tesla systems. (based on something like this alone I wouldn't want their heavily computerized car) But hard to imagine that the guy with Tripp's background would be able to change the system on his own even if access was somehow wide-open. The worst I'd guess he could come up with is to install a daemon (outside MOS) running database queries and emailing/ftp the results to outside location - but Musk claimed something a lot heavier.
Unless Tripp was really hired by Tesla's competitor to sabotage (not likely)....I'd say he was clearly framed by Tesla. They'd probably cooked-up some computer intrusion under his username while he was still there. If he really intruded I'd imagine there'd have been a criminal case opened against him by now, such stuff is a serious crime...but no case.
When blowing a whistle I think it's important to exit the company and return any equipment to them first, and cut off any contact with them from that point. Internal complaints only make you a target.
In Tesla's suit they claim that Tripp confessed to their/Tesla internal investigators that he hacked their system...yeah right, like someone smart enough to hack it would confess to something like this or would even talk to their "investigators" at all. If Tripp was working for a competitor....it'd be "his lawyers" talking all the way, to "Tesla investigators" or HR, handing out cease and desist instructions... Another red flag...I have trouble believing Tesla here.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Mar 18, 2019 - 03:35pm PT
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What about that makes you yawn? Have you driven one? Defin. no yawning taking place. Such a weird comment - some folks are so ignorant/uneducated.
It is a slightly bigger Model 3, big deal. The third row is a joke. No adult is going to sit in the third row, nor would I want to put a child there for fear of the consequences of a rear end collision.
It is going to cannibalize sales from the Model 3, which Tesla desperately needs at this point.
It won't be available until the end of 2020 which in Tesla time means 2021. Heck, they don't even know where they are going to build it yet.
Elon even treated it as an afterthought. He rambled for 30 minutes and then spent the last few minutes on the Model Y.
This was more of a publicity stunt to try to keep the stock price up and to raise some cash by letting suckers give Tesla $2,500 for a few years.
The market reacted to Tesla's big announcement by continuing its sell off.
So yes, Model Y is a bit of a Model Yawn.
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Mar 18, 2019 - 03:44pm PT
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Tripp looks and acts like a tweaker to me..... But regardless working for soneone like Musk is never going to be a pleasant experience.
Still I hope Tesla survives (without using money stolen from me). Innovation is good even though the first attempts generally don't succeed.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 18, 2019 - 03:45pm PT
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some folks are so ignorant/uneducated.
I know, huh?
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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Mar 19, 2019 - 08:38am PT
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Tweaker? Not catching the tweaker vibe from him. More like a chain smoker.
Some people are naturally very skinny and they get profiled as tweakers in the US for no reason, just because the average person is overweight. Musk looks like a coke user to me...might be the explanation for all the mood swings.
If Tripp has real claims, then, suppression/intimidation of a whistleblower should be enough to never buy their car for safety reasons alone (look at recent Boeing situation). These lawsuits take long time to resolve/will take a while to know the truth (and if they intimidate him into a settlement - then truth will never be known) - but no criminal (sabotage/espionage) case being opened against Tripp is a red flag for me.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Mar 19, 2019 - 10:55am PT
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When someone faces an internet barrage, they typically have little recourse.
Even if he proves that Musk/Tesla deliberately lied, it's unlikely he will win a suit against them. And it is easy to drop a few hints and let the internet trolls/cult followers take over. John Oliver's Last week tonight had a good segment on this on his most recent episode.
I don't know anything more about this than what was in the Bloomberg article, but whatever Tripp did or didn't do it seems to me that Musk set out to punish him with lies and innuendo for raising questions Musk didn't want raised.
And I would say that Musk succeeded in that goal.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Mar 23, 2019 - 12:18pm PT
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Maybe Elon hasn’t heard that AOC is gonna do away with airlines after she bans meat and cars?
Elon might wanna reconsider further investment in Buck Rodgers Inc.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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How much for a round trip San Francisco - Warsaw?
Moose
The cost will be around 50 times as much CO2 as an economy seat trip would produce. But I don't suppose Musk supporters care about that.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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The market has spoken...
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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I thought by now the Tesla bulls would have come to spin this as good news. Or maybe reality is finally setting in?
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formerclimber
Boulder climber
CA
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I thought by now the Tesla bulls would have come to spin this as good news.
Yeah...it bounced off major support level :)
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Splater
climber
Grey Matter
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The cost [of Muskspace rocket trip] will be around 50 times as much CO2 as an economy seat trip would produce. But I don't suppose Musk supporters care about that.
The ultimate contradiction.
Supposedly Tesla exists to reduce GHGs.
But rocket tourism exists to create GHGs.
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couchmaster
climber
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This ones for Reilly: "You can't spell felon without elon."
BTW, no sense watching the stock price all day, today it's back up $7.18/share on the day to 274.96(+2.68%). I would not get on that roller coaster under any circumstances, but can understand why Moose, who got in at $4 a share or some such, would NOT want to sell and have the taxman grab his ankles, turn him upside down, and shake out all of his gains.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Banksy, all the TSLA bulls are now steers, especially Moosie.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 10, 2019 - 03:39pm PT
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Couch, the Kool Aid Krew have a lot of money to waste in dragging out the inevitable.
The shorts will prevail.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Apr 12, 2019 - 07:09am PT
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Fairings were recovered as well, though after a splashdown instead of the net. They will be reused.
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High Fructose Corn Spirit
Gym climber
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Apr 16, 2019 - 08:24pm PT
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Moose, of all things, eh?
Like losing your climbing shoes, your rope, or a sling of cams after a great full-on day of climbing. Sheesh.
...
Edit:
Hey, where'd your post go? re: loss of the core booster. Dang.
I see now. Take care, Moose.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Apr 23, 2019 - 02:04pm PT
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The Tesla pivot has begun. With demand cratering and its future as an auto maker in peril, Tesla is now a robotaxi startup. According to Musk, a year from now, Tesla will be capable of level 5 autonomy in its cars and expects over a million robotaxis on the roads. This of course is pure fantasy. Can't wait for tomorrow's earnings report.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Apr 24, 2019 - 03:35am PT
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Automobile ownership is in decline overall, all automakers are contemplating robotaxi and sharing biz models.
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brotherbbock
climber
So-Cal
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Apr 24, 2019 - 07:26am PT
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This thread is too political...
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Apr 24, 2019 - 09:56am PT
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Yes, automakers are pursuing robotaxis and ride sharing as part of their business plan. But Musk was just making sh#t up, per usual, on Monday. He's been promising fully autonomous cars for three years now. They have been years behind everyone else in autonomous development and suddenly they are going to leap frog everyone and have Level 5 cars next year? Pure fantasy. It's just another scheme to stoke the hype and get people to pay more money for nothing.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Apr 24, 2019 - 10:22am PT
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^^^
I wish there was a way to bet against Musk on that claim. Sure, you can always short Tesla stock, but you can go broke waiting for market fundamentals to overcome diehard supporters.
A few years ago my co-worker bet me that by the end of 2020, a random person (not a one-off reporter, for instance), would be able to fly into Sacramento airport and take a driverless car (that did not have a human driver ready to take over) to any suburban destination in the city. I'm feeling pretty good that I'm going to win that bet.
I think driverless cars will arrive eventually, but they still have a long way to go before they are deemed safe enough for American streets. I expect China, Japan, and South Korea to have driverless cars long before the US. For legal reasons and consumer acceptance, not technical ones.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 24, 2019 - 10:36am PT
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So there have been how many crashes and deaths either due to the autopilot malfunctioning or techno-junkies blindly entrusting their lives to it? Have heard of at least two that suddenly veered across three lanes. Haven’t heard of one with Volvo’s, but then Volvo practically invented auto safety. I have many hundreds of miles using mine and my only complaint is that it is sometimes too cautious, not a bad thing IMHO.
(Reuters) - Tesla Inc on Wednesday reported a $700 million loss for the first quarter and said it would also lose money in the second as it struggled to deliver cars to customers and launched a cheaper version of its Model 3 sedan.
The company said it ended the quarter with just $2.2 billion in cash, after paying off a $920 million convertible bond obligation in March.
Tic-Toc
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Ezra Ellis
Trad climber
North wet, and Da souf
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Apr 24, 2019 - 04:53pm PT
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So Tesla lost 702 million dollars in the first quarter,
They Delivered 63,000 vehicles.
This was short of expectations, and they may need to raise capital soon.
It will be an interesting year at Tesla.
The Tesla koolaid might be a bit bitter soon
Lol
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 25, 2019 - 08:34am PT
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Tesla’s earnings were a ‘debacle,’ says longtime bull in scorching commentary
Tesla Inc.’s first-quarter earnings and accompanying call with analysts was “one of (the) top debacles we have ever seen,” according to one longtime Tesla bull, who said Thursday he was throwing in the white towel and dropping his buy rating on the stock.
“In our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives wrote in a note to investors. “Ultimately we believe the company’s guidance is aggressive and management/board is not taking aggressive enough cost cutting actions and shutting down future endeavors to preserve capital and give a sustained path to profitability for the Street.”
They won’t need anybody to turn out the lights cause the power will already have been cut off.
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Apr 25, 2019 - 10:44am PT
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So there have been how many crashes and deaths either due to the autopilot malfunctioning or techno-junkies blindly entrusting their lives to it? Have heard of at least two that suddenly veered across three lanes. Haven’t heard of one with Volvo’s, but then Volvo practically invented auto safety. I have many hundreds of miles using mine and my only complaint is that it is sometimes too cautious, not a bad thing IMHO.
As I mentioned before, the problem is technical. Self driving cars could have an accident death rate that is one-tenth of human drivers, say ~4000 deaths/year instead of ~40,000 deaths/year, and the companies would be bankrupted by lawsuits.
If it is done by a computer, humans expect perfection. Flying is way safer than driving and look how society freaks out about plane crashes. I think self driving cars are going to have the same hurdles.
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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Apr 25, 2019 - 01:03pm PT
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Musk wants people to believe that we are on the verge of living like the Jetsons, while in reality we are far far away.
As for the Q1 numbers, Musk is either incompetent, a delusional liar, or both. Back in January, he said he expected a small loss or even a small profit in Q1 with a bit of luck. To have revenue and income crater so badly shows you either have no idea what is going on or you are flat out lying.
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seano
Mountain climber
none
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Apr 25, 2019 - 01:48pm PT
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Flying is way safer than driving and look how society freaks out about plane crashes. I think self driving cars are going to have the same hurdles. Pretty much. Google/Uber/Tesla are just as freaked out about liability as Boeing/Airbus and the airlines. If you crash your car, it's your fault. If your car crashes itself, it's their fault.
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WBraun
climber
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Apr 25, 2019 - 04:15pm PT
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If your car crashes itself, it's their fault.
Nah ...
They'll just pass the buck down to blame the guy who wrote the code.
Then they'll just break his fingers so he can't write any more code ..... :-)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 25, 2019 - 04:40pm PT
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As an aviation ‘fanboi’ with some street cred (if I do say so) a few games are played with aviation safety statistics. They like to tout deaths per X (trillion/billion/million) revenue miles. When seen through that prism the numbers are impressive. When looked at as X/million departures the picture isn’t so rosy. Once the heap gets off the ground and established in cruise flying is very safe, it’s those pesky takeoffs and landings that ruin the party. That is the problem with driving, too, huh? If everybody would stay in their lane and behave at intersections, not to mention obey a few other inconvenient laws, driving could be as safe as flying! I just don’t see how some pencil necked geek can write code to thwart homicidal retards.
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Ezra Ellis
Trad climber
North wet, and Da souf
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Apr 27, 2019 - 03:05am PT
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Tesla closed at 235 yesterday,
How low will it go?
Where are all the tesla fan boys?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 27, 2019 - 06:48am PT
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Amazingly they’re out there or at least enough to lessen the day’s losses by a percent in the last hour of trading. Who in their right mind is still buying TSLA?
They gotta be drinking Rev Jim Jones grade kool-aid!
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Apr 27, 2019 - 10:02am PT
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Those are the weenie shorts who don’t have the cojones to stay to the bitter end! 😉
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mucci
Trad climber
The pitch of Bagalaar above you
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Apr 29, 2019 - 08:09pm PT
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I bailed at $390 ($104 purchase share price)
Back in as soon as it hits $200
If a civilian like me can literally crush on profit, there has to something Wong...
Bunch of long haul truckers here, hope there is still a market to work in 20 yrs lol
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Banks
Trad climber
Santa Monica, CA
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May 20, 2019 - 11:16am PT
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What happens first? The Taco shuts down or Tesla goes belly up?
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Q- Ball
Mountain climber
but to scared to climb them anymore
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May 20, 2019 - 02:08pm PT
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I cut a tree down. Or moved it off the road. Thousands in profit. The log is still sitting below the bank.
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jeff constine
Trad climber
Ao Namao
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May 22, 2019 - 07:31pm PT
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Stoner
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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May 22, 2019 - 08:09pm PT
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0-60 ,1.9 seconds.
One attribute among many. The certainty of a company that's going to be around for the long haul would be another (as well as the parts and service and resale-ability that go with it).
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 22, 2019 - 08:19pm PT
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TSLA off another 6% today after they cut car prices. Getting brutal.
A pity the fan bois have bailed.
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mucci
Trad climber
The pitch of Bagalaar above you
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May 22, 2019 - 10:29pm PT
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I’m going balls deep, keeping my word above.
>$200 booya
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 22, 2019 - 10:31pm PT
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booya, climbers don’t count, most are sado-masochists.
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john hansen
climber
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May 22, 2019 - 10:51pm PT
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Got in at 196 in 2014 got out at 271 a couple years ago. 38 % in four years.
It is now below 196 again.
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MikeL
Social climber
Southern Arizona
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May 23, 2019 - 06:31am PT
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Reilly,
You've seen the recent whistleblowing claims of inspectors who claim the FAA pressures them to ignore critical plane problems? (I saw it on CBS News.)
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 23, 2019 - 08:53am PT
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Mike, WOT to follow...
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 23, 2019 - 10:05am PT
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Since my First Commandment is ‘Brevity is next to godliness’ I would say CBS is grasping at straws. I’m not saying there are not issues but I aver the king is still clothed, albet a trifle scantily at times. There has long been a double standard between the majors and the regionals/charter outfits which the CBS article seems to be about. To me the second takeaway, which was ignored, is the issue of The Peter Principle at the FAA. Historically the regionals’ safety was considerably worse than the majors due to less adequate maintenance and considerably less competent pilots. That gap has steadily narrowed to the point that today I would actually consider flying on a regional, if I couldn’t rent a car to the destination. As to getting on a charter, perhaps, if you held a gun to my head.
If CBS, or any mass media outfit, had one reporter with a shred of intelligence or, lacking that, knew any pilots they would look for more substantive issues. To wit, why are airlines like Asiana, Korean Air, EVA (Taiwan), Garuda, Ethiopean, Egypt Air, to name a few, allowed to fly to the US? The Asiana crash at SFO was the most egregious example of incompetence short of the plane being flown by a blind and deaf quadriplegic. The ensuing revelations about the Korean pilots solidarity in massively cheating at their recurrent training exams was as amazing in its widespread nature as was the degree to which said revelations were ignored by the Fake Media industry. As if that wasn’t bad enough 2 years ago an EVA B777 came within 1500 feet of flying into Mt Wilson above Pasadena! There were no issues at play other than immutable incompetence. The ATC controller’s final transmission was
“EVA 15, WHAT ARE YOU DOING? TURN SOUTHBOUND NOW!”
Why has this been hushed up by the FAA and completely ignored by the hallowed Fourth Estate?
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flight-investigation-20170113-story.html
Which brings us to the B737 Max story. Of the roughly 793 Max’s in use funny that none have crashed except in Ethiopia and Indonesia, huh? I have only seen one article that noted that the day before the Lion Air crash the SAME AIRCRAFT had the exact same scenario. Luckily there was a pilot in the jump seat who was actually a qualified pilot and told the two punters at the controls how to turn off the autopilot. On top of that those morons didn’t ‘squawk’ the incident. Are you kidding me? I also have unimpeachable evidence of there having been a large number of identical incidents here and in Canada. Again, there were actual pilots at the controls so it was NBD. That Boeing installed this software surreptitiously is beyond the pale but why do they feel compelled to install software in order to sell aircraft to countries which certify pilots who have no business being in either the left or right seat? Did you know the Ethiopean first officer had a whopping 200 hours? I bet he didn’t even know how to drive a bloody car!
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